ryanhamley.bsky.social
Oh no
213 posts
41 followers
144 following
Regular Contributor
Active Commenter
comment in response to
post
I’ve been avoiding social media the last week or so and I’m excited to have no idea what the fuck this is
comment in response to
post
Yep. I grew up in Indiana County in the 80’s and 90’s. There was not a single non-white kid in my high school. No Jews or Muslims. No one that spoke Spanish. No one that was openly gay. We did have an Amish kid briefly. I lived in a conservative world for 18 years and I don’t want to go back
comment in response to
post
I guess when ICE says “I’m from the government and I’m here to round people up into camps” that’s fine
comment in response to
post
I bought a 15’ cord when I lost my charger and frankly, I flew too close to the sun. Now I gotta carry this cable around like a roadie setting up a Metallica show.
comment in response to
post
Cool that’s what I was wondering. Thanks!
comment in response to
post
Ah I forgot there was a special election. I guess I was curious if the use of recalled vote could impact polling of different races in different ways or if it is a fairly uniform weight.
comment in response to
post
How does recalled vote work in a situation like this where there wasn’t a Senate election in Arizona in 2020? Do they just ask about 2022?
comment in response to
post
It’s fun to see a leopard eating Trump’s face for once
comment in response to
post
November Rain is a legit great song but him stroking out at the exact moment Slash’s solo hits has some appeal
comment in response to
post
It’s telling that the only places that did have this at the state level were in the old Confederacy and adopted them during Jim Crow explicitly to make it next-to-impossible for black candidates to win statewide office
comment in response to
post
Is there a good explanation for such dramatic splits in Senate and presidential polling? Given how widespread it is, it doesn’t seem like you can chalk it up to Kari Lake being a bad candidate or whatever.
comment in response to
post
The most watched shows in America last year were Tracker, NCIS and Young Sheldon
comment in response to
post
You’d think a press that keeps dinging Harris for supposedly not having detailed plans might find something objectionable in “I’ll say 100, 200. I’ll say 500. I don’t care.”
comment in response to
post
I also find the splits between presidential polling and Senate polling in places like PA, AZ and NV hard to square, as is the difference in funding. It feels like the presidential polls are the only things actually pointing to a toss up election.
comment in response to
post
I find it hard to believe that there’s been basically no movement post-Roe while running against the guy who killed it. But if you buy that recalled vote is herding polling results around the 2020 outcomes, that could explain some things
comment in response to
post
I think I agree. It’s a fine line to walk because you don’t want to go all “unskew the polls” and ignore reality, but Nate Cohn just had an article about the usage of recalled vote precisely to avoid underestimating Trump again. But the effect may be to overestimate him now
comment in response to
post
There’s some pretty solid reasons to think she’s going to win. It’s just that the downside is so enormously bad that it’s really hard to put it out of your mind.
comment in response to
post
Yep, the fact of the matter is that Harris is currently in a better position than Trump. Much of the vibe shift is simply PTSD from 2016 where we all assume the polls are dramatically underrating Trump again
comment in response to
post
I don’t think that’s how the Electoral
College works
comment in response to
post
The ABC and CBS polls that came out today showed no movement with Harris maintaining her lead so of course we all fixate on the one that shows a swing that’s still within the MOE
comment in response to
post
The Trump supporters in Huntington Beach aren’t going to help him win Pennsylvania
comment in response to
post
Climbing Hitler’s favorite mountain and shaking my head the whole time so people know I disapprove
comment in response to
post
I was in Dublin last year and had no idea about this museum! I’m bummed but I will put it on my list for next time.
comment in response to
post
A couple of museums that blew me away without me having a lot of expectations:
The Thyssen-Bornemisza in Madrid and The Kelvingrove in Glasgow
comment in response to
post
I think ending American democracy has some impact on policy outcomes
comment in response to
post
lol yep, a stiff upper lip oughta do it
comment in response to
post
I thought this Nate Cohn article yesterday was interesting. The increased usage of recalled vote may be artificially herding the polls towards the 2020 results
comment in response to
post
A key difference in this respect is that Republicans have been so successful in abusing the unrepresentative aspects of our electoral system (EC, courts, Senate, gerrymandering) that they don’t need to even try to appeal to a majority of voters. It’s how they got so extreme in the first place.