samratner.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Big deal—after correcting, it turns out that moderate candidates do not perform better than extreme candidates in general elections. Kudos to Andy, Dan, and Adam for updating a key question in political science

submitted 5 hours ago • 26 comments

Very happy that my paper has just been published at @apsrjournal.bsky.social! Do insurgents help or hurt genocide targets? Contrary to common belief, I find that insurgent presence reduced Jewish victimisation during the Holocaust in France. Here's what I discovered 👇 1/6

submitted 7 hours ago • 6 comments

The headline undersells how shitty this is. Newsom put together his own podcast, and then invited professional bigot Charlie Kirk to be the guest on the very first episode of that podcast, expressly so that he could suck up to Kirk and throw trans kids under the bus.

submitted 7 hours ago • 0 comments

HBO's Industry is a documentary

submitted 7 hours ago • 0 comments

Obviously this is bad and gross policy, but it's also just a wrong take on the book! Jay's book is a) excellent, b) vital, and c) if anything, not quite woke enough.

submitted 23 hours ago • 0 comments

This is realism, to me

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Surprised to hear Trump announce his plans to attack Mexico? We got experts to game out what would happen if he did it, and the results aren’t pretty.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Surprised to hear Trump announce his plans to attack Mexico? We got experts to game out what would happen if he did it, and the results aren’t pretty.

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

trump was literally president for four years during which he wildly escalated drone warfare, tried to provoke a war with Iran and got into dangerous saber-rattling with north korea. now, he is threatening to take greenland and the panama canal by force. what is this horseshit?

submitted 2 days ago • 256 comments

mashing the @johncarlbaker.bsky.social alarm on this one

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

I organized this exercise. TLDR: Drone striking cartels isn’t a great idea unless you want to spread cartel violence, push fentanyl production into new communities in 🇲🇽 AND 🇺🇸, make the trade war even more painful here, and see what happens if 🇲🇽 lets 100Ks of migrants up to the 🇺🇸 border.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

@cipolicy.bsky.social 's International Policy Journal is on substack now, and they've been nice enough to repost a long essay I wrote last year arguing that there's no such thing as a status quo when it comes to nuclear weapons: open.substack.com/pub/cippolic...

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Thread on what we've been up to over the past week.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Last week, the New York Times reported that the Trump administration is “embroiled in a debate over whether to carry out military strikes against Mexican drug cartels.” www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/w...

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

NEWS: The USAID official put on leave for disseminating two memos about Rubio's failure to push through life-saving foreign aid was in the process of writing a THIRD memo when fired. We obtained it. It's far more alarming than the first two. www.thebulwark.com/p/what-a-wee...

submitted 3 days ago • 251 comments

Anti apartheid politics deters pro apartheid American distributors

submitted 3 days ago • 6 comments

watch the film

submitted 3 days ago • 4 comments

That win, and those remarkable speeches, will infuriate the worst people in this country and the world. Good. #NoOtherLand

submitted 3 days ago • 43 comments

🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸 NO OTHER LAND 🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸

submitted 3 days ago • 8 comments

Incredible timing. I spent all afternoon in Congress playing out a war game (table top exercise) of what would happen if Trump bombed Mexico with a Reaper drone. I was on Team Cartel (along with a former analyst from a 3-letter agency). I think we beat Team Trump & Team Sheinbaum pretty decisively.

submitted 6 days ago • 6 comments

Reports warn that Gaza ceasefire might fall apart and South Sudan might collapse due to suspension of USAID aid

submitted 6 days ago • 2 comments

Trump designated cartels as terror organizations, a move that opens up more failed War on Drugs and War on Terror options for the White House. But breaking the power of cartels can come from lessening, not increasing, violence. New at @cipolicy.bsky.social internationalpolicy.org/publications...

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

It's happening...

submitted 7 days ago • 4 comments

WASHINGTON (AP) - The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits last week jumps to 242,000, a three-month high.

submitted 7 days ago • 280 comments

To make subtext text here: mass firings, the end of PMF, and the mass privatization of government functions mean the end of the policy profession as we know it, and the institutions that support that profession will transform or collapse.

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

Which major U.S. policy school will be the first to be absorbed into its university’s business school, and when will it happen?

submitted 7 days ago • 1 comment

I struggle to imagine what language in this bill could make the Trump admin spend Congress-directed money, given that the plain language of the constitution hasn’t had much effect.

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment

BREAKING: Judge grants motion to enforce TRO in USAID contracts/grants case. Judge Amir Ali, a Biden appointee, says bills for work prior to Feb. 13 must be paid by midnight tomorrow. Developing...

submitted 9 days ago • 8 comments

Of course, to avoid it being called Four Eyes, they'd have to change the name to something else burger-chain-derived, like Intel-n-Out or ShareShack.

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

The State Department's armored cybertruck deal is still murky, but it seems a very straight shot from contracting for diplomatic EVs to military EVs- a wasteful use of energy transition minerals that would be better used electrifying more socially useful parts of government

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

Same event.

submitted 13 days ago • 2 comments

Turns out I’m going to be in New Haven for the afternoon, if anyone on here is around and wants to grab a cup of coffee.

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Designating these groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations does not mean they’re “eligible for drone strikes.” There exists no congressional authorization for the use of military force against these groups or where they operate. Using unauthorized military force against them would violate US law.

submitted 14 days ago • 9 comments

LATE from me: You know you've done some weird stuff when everyone in the nuclear weapons field is upset. There are a few paths forward with a diminished DOE + NNSA, but none of them properly support an build-up, the status quo, or reductions. Another massive own-goal no matter your priors.

submitted 19 days ago • 2 comments

Eric Adams wants to trade the safety and freedom of people in his city for his own personal gain. New Yorkers should throw him out on his ass.

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

god this guy is an idiot. like, a stone cold idiot who sincerely believes that war fighting and preparedness is about having the biggest dick

submitted 21 days ago • 4999 comments

At this morning's HFAC hearing, Heritage goon Max Primorac, who apparently just woke up from a 40 year nap, called the Frelimo government in Mozambique a "Marxist-Leninist regime."

submitted 21 days ago • 1 comment

New from me: I wrote about the baffling disconnect between congressional Republicans fighting among themselves about the budget when across Pennsylvania Avenue it's clear that the Trump administration is going to do whatever it wants regardless of what lawmakers wind up doing

submitted 22 days ago • 2 comments

Redoing this since I was basing numbers from a piece that may have copied the study wrong: AJC is out with its report on the state of antisemitism in America. The main finding, to me, is that most US Jews are worried about antisemitism (fair! same!), but most of us have not personally experienced it

submitted 22 days ago • 4 comments