scauchemez.bsky.social
Professor of infectious disease epidemiology and modelling at Institut Pasteur, Paris. Transmission, epidemic dynamics and forecasting, seroepidemiology, vaccines and NPIs, respiratory and vector born diseases, zoonoses, Public Health. #IDSky
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Simplicity is a key strength of the package: it only takes a few lines of code to run and compare different types of models! Dev by Nathanael Hoze, with contributions from Marga Pons, @jessmetcalf.bsky.social, @mtwhite.bsky.social, @hsalje.bsky.social.
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Rsero is useful to determine optimal designs for serosurveys depending on context. For example, should you target the general population, children <10y.o. or <20y.o.? This will depend on the expected annual probability of infection (FOI)...
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You can also use Rsero to evaluate the impact of interventions, here mass drug administration on Trachoma prevalence in Nepal.
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Rsero can assess how infection risk may vary with individual characteristics, e.g. gender and location.
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Rsero can help you determine if your data are more consistent with a scenario of endemic ‘constant’ circulation, or with the occurrence of 1, 2 or 3 outbreaks in the last 50 years. It can estimate the year when these outbreaks occurred.
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Done!
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Here are a couple ID Modelling packs if that helps. bsky.app/profile/scau...
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www.reuters.com/world/africa...
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These results suggest the benefit of early implementation of NPIs and swift rollout of vaccines to the most vulnerable. Further analyses are required at a more granular level. Study led by @afontanet.bsky.social 🧪
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Structural factors, such as high trust in the national government and low ratio of population at risk of poverty were also associated with lower excess mortality.🧪
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Lower excess mortality was associated with implementing stringent NPIs when hospital admissions were still low in 2020 and rapid rollout of vaccines in the elderly in early 2021. Countries which implemented NPIs while hospital admissions were low experienced lower GDP losses in 2020. 🧪
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We identified notable differences in seeding events, particularly in early 2020 and when the Alpha variant emerged, likely contributing to notable differences in excess mortality between countries. These differences were more limited from July 2021 onwards. 🧪
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Done!
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Done! @lemeylab.bsky.social was already there.
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Done!
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Done!
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Done!
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Hello, I’d like to contribute to the Science feed. I’m a Prof in Infectious disease epidemiology and modelling at Institut Pasteur, Paris. research.pasteur.fr/en/member/si...
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Added you want I saw you! You're in the second ID Modelling pack! Best
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Hi Seb, I thought I had already added you... it's done now! Best Simon
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Done!
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Done!