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sfalmy.bsky.social
Democratic politcal strategist who also tracks early ballots. Numbers are approximate. @Uplift Campaigns
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Here's what turnout looked like in Arizona's 39 precincts with 0 registered voters. Over 40% of these precincts had 0% turnout. Maricopa County had the most (29) precincts with 0% turnout. Navajo was next with 4. 9 counties in Arizona have no precincts with zero voters.

Arizona Presidential results by FAA Air Traffic Control Zones. Trump easily carried the Los Angeles Zone with 70.5% of the vote. Harris took the Denver portion with 77%, largely boosted with support from the Navajo and Hopi Nation. The Albuquerque Zone leaned GOP with 53% Trump support.

As @tcani.bsky.social has been mentioning for months.

Last Friday Uplift Campaigns (my employer) received a Reed Award for “Best Employer” Can confirm we are excellent to work for and with.

When I saw my first ncaa bracket loss.

JUST IN: Arizona Representative Raul Grijalva has died from his battle with cancer.

Relatable

Excited to set a new person record on Excel crashes when matching voter lists.

Breaking: Cochise County's elections director is stepping down. The county has now gone through four election directors/interim EDs in two years, since Lisa Marra resigned in Jan. 2023. Marisol Renteria had stepped up from the IT dept to help the county through 2024 elections.

Hockey tariffs incoming

Here are the top 20 precincts in regards to turnout. Wild Horse (Navajo County) and Pima 273 (Pima County) both had over 100% turnout. The top 4 precincts had less than 10 voters in each. Sun Valley (Maricopa) had 96.2% TO with 1,099 total voters.

Presenting at the Saddlebrooke Democratic Club tomorrow. The 2024 results make the 4 Saddlebrooke precincts look like bellwethers for the state. Harris Statewide: 46.7% Gallego Statewide: 50.1% In 2012, Romney won these precincts almost 2:1 with 62% of the vote.

It’s great when Valentine’s Day is also Pizza Friday

Looking at LD 4 State House shift from 2020. Comparing the top Dem candidate to GOP 2 it's easy to see LD 4 is a swing district. 2020 data uses pre-redistricting candidates. In 2022 the top Dem candidate won, but the seat flipped back to GOP in 2024. Precinct shift 👇

Single shot effectiveness can be seen more greatly in the competitive/targeted LDs (2,4,13,16,17,27) In single shot LDs, the top dem house candidate over performed Gallego by 0.7%. In districts with 2 dem candidates, the top dem performed 1.4% lower than Gallego 2-Way Total is used for House %

The "Single Shot" (running a single house candidate) is effective State House races with a single Dem candidate performed slightly better than top Dem performer Ruben Gallego. Using a two way total (👇below), single shot Dems received 42% of the vote compared to 41.8% of Gallego.

I'm speaking at the LD 4 meeting this month. A trend that is present in nearly all districts is how Democratic registration totals never recovered from their 2020 peak. Dem turnout is very high (91%!) and on par with GOP. But the total number of voters is just not there.

Adding a lime to my rum and coke tonight 🇨🇺🍋‍🟩

Just once I’d like to use powdered sugar and not have my kitchen look like Miami in the 1980s

Arizona's presidential results shifted heavily from 2020 to 2024. Biden won by 0.3% in 2020 while Trump won by 5.6% in 2024. Harris lost 2.7% of vote share. While Trump gained 3.1%. 3rd option voting (3rd party or write in) dropped from 1.8% to 1.4%. Which areas of the state shifted the most? 👇

I was expecting 3rd option for President votes to be more similar to 2016. But they right in line with both 2012 and 2020. Interesting that Jill Stein out performed the LBT candidate.

It's so fun when on one file the precinct name is 04 Hubble and on another the name is 04 Hubbell Can anyone versed is AZ history tell me which is correct? Navajo County for reference. Probably have a couple dozen more of these throughout the state.

To move up to the 9th spot in my fantasy league, I need Rico Dowdle to outscore Joe Burrow by 38 points. Follow for more fantasy football advice into the playoffs.

Can we investigate LD 23 as well? Or is that “a whole different situation”

Cookie week ends on an up note! Lemon turmeric cookies came out soft and orange.

Cookie week failure! Made some Bûche de Noël (french for chocolate cookie). Used the wrong cocoa powder. If you like the taste of unsweetened chocolate dust- these are for you.

I believe Wild Horse precinct in Navajo County is going to set an all time record for turnout at 120% 5 registered voters, 6 ballots cast

Registration totals from the official canvasses from Maricopa County and AZ SoS 2,587,196 - AZ SoS 2,587,197 - Maricopa County Why don't the numbers match? Who is this voter? Why is my eye twitching so much?

Both Miami 1 & 3 Precincts in Gila County have 476 voters. Keep following for more interesting Arizona voter analysis.

Cookie week continues with a cream cheese filled ginger cookie. Got my kid to help add sugar!

Late start to Cookie Week. Rum buttered almond cookies today. Courtesy of @nytimes.com cooking

I’m in 11th place (of 12) in my fantasy football league and I have a firm hold on it.