sfalmy.bsky.social
Democratic politcal strategist who also tracks early ballots. Numbers are approximate. @Uplift Campaigns
283 posts
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105 following
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The Albuquerque zone accounted for 93.5% of the vote. Future statewide campaigns should try and swing this district that covers over 27% of the state's total area.
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Counter revolution? Is that the establishment?
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It’s fine. Arizona’s last witch trial was over 50 years ago (54).
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They won the super bowl AND then played the second half.
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Shout out to your audio editor 😂
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Most of the 2022 shift happened in the precincts to the west.
But in 2024, precincts not only flipped back to GOP wins but also had lower Dem victory margins.
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What billionaire would turn down government welfare?
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Two way total allows a 3 or 4 person race to be compared with a traditional 2 person contest
My formula is
Dem 1 + Rep 2 = Total Contest Votes
Dem Candidate 1/Total Contest Votes = Dem 1 Vote %
LD 4 Example:
Butler (66,407) + Carter (69,077) = 135,484 votes
66,407/135,484 = 49%
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The children yearn for the mines!
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I'd suggest the Giant's Stairs in Brunswick, but it is likely the worst time of year and likely impassible.
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Likely and seemingly endless interview that ultimately went nowhere leaving both sides unsatisfied.
…unless someone turned into a bug
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Followed immediately by Friday beers on whiskey row, I’m sure.
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Dems lost the most ground in solidly Dem Legislative Districts. Harris received 3.5% lower vote share in Dem LDs while Trump increased 3.8%
Competitive and solid GOP districts saw a shift of about 1.5% each.
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What else do we know about voters in AZ who haven't proved citizenship?
They are younger
They are less likely to be R or D
And they are wayyyy less likely to actually vote
www.votebeat.org/arizona/2024...
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Smallest victory margin is still a record
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Start incorporating false starts to open up the field a little. Maybe even a holding after the 5th or 6th OT