sgehlbach.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Trump has long behaved as if he is carrying water for Putin. We can be angry, upset, afraid—I am all of these things, and more. We should not, at this point, be surprised.

submitted 56 minutes ago • 0 comments

So excited to share new work on the social construction of race during the US Reconstruction Era, joint with @rickhornbeck.bsky.social, Daniel Keniston, and Benjamin Lualdi! nber.org/papers/w33502

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

🚨New paper alert!🚨 @anthlittle.bsky.social and I are excited to share “Presidential Election Concessions.” We present a new global dataset on concessions in presidential elections in all countries worldwide from 1980 to 2024 /1

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

🚨 Nominate your students, your peers, or yourself for the 2025 SIOE awards! Dissertation, lifetime achievement, conference paper — something for everyone. Please repost! www.sioe.org/news/2025-si...

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

This. The evangelical right’s vision of Russia bears no resemblance to the country I know.

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

Great initiative by @ponarseurasia.bsky.social. Journalists, please note the easy links to experts available for commentary.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

@econ4ua.bsky.social released a memo summarizing our analysis of US aid to Ukraine. We estimate total value at $50.9B: $18.3B military + $32.6B budget support. Value of military aid is limited by old vintage—we track DoD procurement, weapon age & depreciation. Read more: econ4ua.org/aid-value/

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Having served as a Moscow correspondent in the early days of Putin's reign, this reminds me of how the Kremlin took over its own press pool and made sure that only compliant journalists were given access.

submitted 3 days ago • 1079 comments

Occasional reminder of differences PRE German partition. See (pdf) 👉 www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=... @lukasmergele.bsky.social @woessmann.bsky.social

submitted 3 days ago • 5 comments

I am sick to my stomach. I am grateful for the absence of pretense, for the absolute clarity for anybody who cares to know.

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Hi all - Skip The Daily, which apparently can’t be bothered to mark three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Today, Feb 24, you want to listen to @phillipspobrien.bsky.social’s discussion with @pkrugman.bsky.social instead.

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

A slightly positive 🧵 in a dark time. Research on dictatorships and democratic backsliding suggests that the American experiment with authoritarianism could be brief. There are five reasons for this:

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Here is an interesting exercise, prompted by a talk I am giving tomorrow. Ask ChatGPT: “Was Idi Amin smart? Was he competent?” Compare the answer to your impressions of DJT.

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

Economists for Ukraine (econ4ua.org) drafted an open letter to the future German chancellor. We call for 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 to step up & to ⬆️ support for #Ukraine. Please read & sign (if you agree), the form is at the end of ✉️): tinyurl.com/m9ta2b5d Please share this letter with your colleagues. #UkrainianView

submitted 8 days ago • 2 comments

A reminder to submit nominations for @sioecon.bsky.social awards—best dissertation + lifetime achievement. We study institutions and organizations from the perspective of economics, political science, strategy, law, and more. Deadline is April 1.

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

Trump’s plan to destroy the academy is to make it impossible to concentrate on work.

submitted 9 days ago • 1 comment

This was, of course, a key tension in postcommunist reform debates: the gradualists vs. the shock therapists. Much to say. But my observation is that the rapid dismantling of existing institutions was deeply disorienting for many. It was kindling for a new authoritarianism.

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Purchased.

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Ukraine has pollsters too. www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

How we got here, Exhibit A.

submitted 9 days ago • 2 comments

The one unambiguous struggle of good vs. evil in decades, and the US is switching sides. The reaction in the Kremlin reminds me of this line from Lolita after Humbert shoots Quilty: “a quarter of his face gone, and two flies beside themselves with a dawning sense of unbelievable luck.”

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Doubling down on this after Trump’s absurdities yesterday.

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Looking forward to being a citizen of a pariah country.

submitted 9 days ago • 1 comment

The regime in Georgia is going to feel unleashed by what’s happening with Trump and Putin.

submitted 9 days ago • 1 comment

I wrote this after Trump’s meeting with Putin in Helsinki in 2018. It is high time to stop being surprised by anything that Trump does. We don’t need to guess at his motivations. We just need to respond as if they are, in fact, Putin’s.

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

. @timfrye.bsky.social wins the prize for most perceptive, if premature, gift.

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

New post up on Broadstreet! www.broadstreet.blog/p/crowdsourc...

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

Just published in the @ajpseditor.bsky.social. You have likely heard of the “dictator’s dilemma,” in which repression reduces knowledge of discontent and thus loosens an autocrat’s grip on power. But when does the dilemma hold? And what do dictators do to ease it? We have answers.

submitted 12 days ago • 1 comment

On this, the one year anniversary of his death, it is a good time to remember Alexey Navalny's most important slogan: "Don't Be Afraid."

submitted 11 days ago • 1 comment

Thoroughly enjoyed this new article by @sgehlbach.bsky.social and colleagues in @ajpseditor.bsky.social. Especially the captivating prose. More of this! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

Just published in the @ajpseditor.bsky.social. You have likely heard of the “dictator’s dilemma,” in which repression reduces knowledge of discontent and thus loosens an autocrat’s grip on power. But when does the dilemma hold? And what do dictators do to ease it? We have answers.

submitted 12 days ago • 1 comment

Once again I am leaving the Munich Security Conference in a low mood. Amongst all the noise, the US signalled their plans for Europe, so things are becoming clearer. But things are clearly not good. This is what we now know, and what we have to do about it:🧵1/17

submitted 12 days ago • 198 comments

Zelenskyy’s speech should be recognized as one of the great speeches of history. Unlike Vance, he spoke to the important geopolitical truths facing Europeans today. Many who complained about Brussels will, from today, remember the mantra: If not Brussels, then Moscow. m.youtube.com/watch?v=_tC_...

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Now would be the perfect time for European states to get together, say "thank you to America for everything you have done since 1941, but times have changed", and then go off and commit themselves alone to help Ukraine achieve victory as soon as possible.

submitted 13 days ago • 32 comments

Trump’s call with Putin shows: 1️⃣ He doesn’t know how to use leverage 2️⃣ He is using leverage, but against Ukraine 📊 Show results

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

Trump’s call with Putin shows: 1️⃣ He doesn’t know how to use leverage 2️⃣ He is using leverage, but against Ukraine 📊 Show results

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

Checks out.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

Trump is weak. I believe Putin has played Trump and currently winning. The Trump’s plan for Ukraine is the Putin’s plan I told the BBC this and also that Putin is not interested to stop the war under weak Trump. 1/

submitted 14 days ago • 4 comments

Thread. I would add that Putin doesn’t want the example of a successful democracy in a Slavic neighbor. Russians might get ideas.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

Only economists use Polity data.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

Of all the things that have happened the past—what is it, three?—weeks, this seems the most characteristic of a personalist dictator. Or Tammany boss. Idi Amin or Boss Tweed, you take your pick.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

Message from Chicago’s president to the University community. I don’t know if Paul writes his own emails, but the communication is consistently clear and reasoned IMO. @annagbusse.bsky.social, you were asking about this a few days ago.

submitted 17 days ago • 2 comments

Why ask Congress? Doesn’t Big Balls have the list?

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

This is a great book! I was thrilled to have a chance to discuss it with Mike recently at @seminarycoopbooks.bsky.social.

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

DJT reminds me of Yeltsin facing a recalcitrant Duma, signing executive orders with abandon, and with decreasing effectiveness. Except Trump has a compliant Congress.

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments