sspin.bsky.social
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But this would be achieved by… raising the prices of gasoline and other refined products in the Midwest.
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The rationale for the pipeline was so that crude from the oil sands could be sold on the intl market to the highest bidder. It had been captive to Alberta & the US Midwest & thus sold at a quite a steep discount. Inevitably some would (probably) get sold to buyers outside of US so > 📉 trade deficit.
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Trump gets absolutely 0 credit for this because there is 0 evidence in any of his public statements that he has any understanding of (fill in the blank). But the pipeline would actually lower the trade deficit w/ Canada.
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You did say that you loved that there are precisely 0 trials in the field of economic history…but if you ever change your mind I’ve got the two perfect postdocs for you to remedy this
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This isn’t a link with the hard data but to a conversation where it is discussed. What you’re looking for might only be available to their clients but it can’t hurt to reach out @markzandi.bsky.social Their podcast is excellent week in & week out fwiw podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...
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Ha that’s what the * is for. It’s giving them (completely undeserved) credit for actually thinking about what they are demanding would in effect entail. The presumption is just my attempt at doing that for them.
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The document is gross. There’s no expiration. It just presumes Ukraine being looted by Us in perpetuity. apple.news/A9O7E6JV4RcO...
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The document that the Telegraph got their hands on lays out that the proceeds would be remitted to the US (I presume treasury to be deposited into the general fund)* but also de facto control over licensing so (US corp. getting sweetheart deals).
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What a close call that was & what a potential cluster fuck was avoided in no small part bc the Biden admin was in place & it acted as a responsible hegemonic power is supposed to act.
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We don’t what the response would be from the rest of Brazilian society in a counter factual where the 🇺🇸 didn’t so explicitly make clear it would give 🇧🇷 essentially the 🇻🇪 treatment defanging the coup attempt. Would there have been enough of a protest from the rest of society? Would it have worked?
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Of course we don’t know if indeed the plot had buy in from across the armed forces leaderships. The reporting was it did at least among a handful at the highest echelons & Bol’s clique comes from & is tight with a number of army officers.
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Had this exact conversation earlier tonight. I’m wary of having an overly centric US role in 🌎 developments. But the US is a unique hegemonic power. And in this instance the story as it’s been publicly reported in multiple outlets reveals this to be the case.
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Lol I could see that being good. Chili is probably a 2 or 3x a year endeavor. One time just throw in some cinnamon. It’ll become part of your recipe going forward.
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Add some cinnamon. I bet you’re skeptical about it but just try it one time. You won’t regret it.
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אני לא יכול לספור את כמות השעות שביליתי במשחק civ iv בתיכון (הייתי ממש מגניב)-civ vi העביר אותי הרבה לילות בודדים במהלך covid
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On cue is the quo.
I’m all for pragmatism in how parties conduct their affairs (be it individuals or nation states). But we should know this isn’t about differences in how best to achieve self-determinism & peace in the region.
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Today's was the easiest one yet. And right in my wheelhouse.
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I know all about the Cobalt & Coltan fueling the conflict in north kivu. But I legitimately didn't go w/ DRC off the bat because of the reporting in this most recent flare up on tunstan, magnesium, gold, etc...
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She was someone who intricately understood geopolitics and state interests. The 100 years war isn’t my thing but the Low Countries understood the importance of trade & commerce. That understanding motivated its behavior way more than it did for the other protagonists of the war.
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Yasher koach Nathan. You’ve been a real tour de force in recent years on IPE but you’ve put on a new hat and really rose to the occasion this week. It’s going to take a whole lot of perseverance & integrity these next few years. We all are very fortunate for your dogged work on this :)
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And 1) I do think he would answer that later less pointed ? 2) I think the answer would be very revelatory
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On the other hand if they wait until some kind of deportation event transpires (& further wait until it shows up in job & wage prints which would be the preference of those who wish to stay out of the sight) it would be too late (and we know the FOMC is also sensitive to be perceived as ‘behind’)
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On the one hand they don’t want to predict any potential future legislation and act accordingly as it could be 1) perceived as interfering 2) result in suboptimal policy if the anticipated legislation doesn’t come into fruition.
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Several members of the FOMC have been forthright in declaring they estimate R* in the current environment as being elevated from the post GFC-pre COVID era. But those estimates were around 3ish. I suspect that # has been revised up further for many members.
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I know* that anchoring is a form of flawed reasoning & I constantly remind myself from not getting to hung up on it…but it’s hard to get too worried about a price level we were last at all of 3 weeks ago in much of the curve no matter how unusual the path.
But yeah I’m keeping tabs on forward ERPs.
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Hey great job w/ the list. Can I be added as well?
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I’ll nominate Renee Zellweger here
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I know that while the shar habitahon is technically CiC in Israel’s org chart- decisions are made by consensus & so it won’t be Katz running things now. But Katz was chosen bc he is a yes man & the lone redeeming virtue about Gallant is that he wasn’t.