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stephenwalt.bsky.social
Harvard Prof, realist, FP columnist, tennis enthusiast, amateur musician, Proud dad, & grateful husband. Collector of lucky breaks, troubled by the state of the world & looking for solutions.
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That tingling sense of excitement when years of research and writing arrives in boxes as a finished product. A biography to read in the age of revenge of geopolitics.

Now hovering around a 50/50 probability of a recession *this year* polymarket.com/event/us-rec...

So it seems like Trump and friends spent months trying to engage in calculated, targeted tariffs and finally decided that this involved too much thinking

Trump is taking America’s economy back to the golden days of the pandemic — except he’s shutting down the supplies chains himself this time.

Past tense

Universities should not restrict students' freedom of association in order to preserve their own free association in the face of gvmt pressure, as Harvard suspends group for peaceful protest that they may or may not have organized. Re-upping my piece on protest. www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

How to (Self-)Destroy a Hegemon in 6 Easy Steps: 1. Wreck academia + science infrastructure 2. Erect massive tariff barriers + supercharge econ inequality 3. Re-segregate your (very) diverse military 4. Destroy elements of soft power (e.g., USAID) 5. Dismantle your democracy 6. Nuke immigration

"Future generations may well look back upon this moment and ask what we did when an authoritarian government came for our University and for our country. Efforts to appease authoritarians often fail, and history rarely remembers them well." www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

Congratulations to all the people who voted for Trump because they thought he’d be good for the economy

It took a lot of stupid to get here but we did it

As an American living in the UK, I wonder if most Americans realize just how much Trump has irrevocably torched opinions of the US. People are afraid to visit, see the country increasingly as an adversary, and that’s *before* the tariffs. This is doing long term damage—and that’s in our closest ally

Trump’s tariff madness seems like a good time to repost this. “It’s worse than a crime; it’s a blunder”

Can’t help but feel that if President Bernie Sanders pulled this move the entirety of American business would try to get him pushed out of office immediately.

For those listening to this rant, those numbers are not tariffs. The European Union, e.g., has weighted average tariff rates of ~ 3% and arguably lower on US goods. So they are clearly including VATs and who knows what else? This false reciprocity is nonsense. For more: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Been trying to buy a ticket on British Air. The price on the website has changed twice in the past hour while I explored different options. Time to try another airline…

Nathalie Tocci and I had a lively exchange of views on what Europe can/will/should do for Ukraine now that the US is disengaging. Check it out here: open.spotify.com/episode/56Gk...

Zhongnanhai studying the cost of Taiwan takeover, long in Xi's sights. See how insane it is to report it this way?

Polls just closed in Wisconsin. If you're in line and reading Bluesky, I'm guessing you already know that you should stay in line.

California Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas (D-Salinas): "there are currently more kids with measles in Texas than there are transgender athletes in the NCAA. That's the epidemic we should all be worried about."

Another elite fails the Lando test bsky.app/profile/bren...

This piece by David Rothkopfvis well worth your time. davidrothkopf.substack.com/p/putting-de...

I’m still mostly sanguine about the balance of power in Asia, but there are some worrisome developments of late. Latest FP column here: foreignpolicy.com/2025/04/01/a...

"America’s new guard are almost all white, all male, and mostly unqualified to lead the departments they are vandalizing. It's not just foreigners who are remaking plans. US scientists are looking abroad. Trump has given the world a giant poaching opportunity." My column. www.ft.com/content/5100...

Let's be clear about what is going on. The Trump administration is not combating antisemitism and university leaders are not protecting free speech. It is authoritarianism and capitulation all the way down. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/u...

I am Jewish. I have spent literally my entire life on university campuses. I was the child of two Jewish professors. Since kindergarten I have spent exactly one year as neither a student nor a professor. I have, on occasion, experienced antisemitism. But never on a university campus.

The leaders of academia are not equal to this moment.

This letter from the Harvard president bows to the fiction that the attack on higher education is about antisemitism

Seeing Japan, S. Korea and China's flags standing side by side is WILD to me.

„Mir scheint, dass er noch weitergehen will und die Nato vielleicht sogar wirklich verlassen wird.“ Harvard-Professor Stephen Walt über Trump im Interview mit Sasan Abdi-Herrle. @abditsch.bsky.social @stephenwalt.bsky.social @zeit.de www.zeit.de/politik/2025...

"And that's why we're firing all the IRS tax collectors and reducing the amount that corporations and billionaires have to pay -- because we're *serious* about getting our fiscal house in order."

Pop quiz; how much did Donald Trump add to the national debt during his first term? Answer: Over $8 trillion.

This is the government the right-wing in the US wants to copy.

The human capital flight from the U.S. is well underway.

True, though Biden certainly could have done a lot more to try to restore the deal Trump broke and instead chose not to really even try - yet another one of his many Middle East policy broken promises and failures.

👇🎯 Today in “These fascist incompetents have absolutely no idea what makes this country rich & powerful”

One of many moments in Omar El Akkad’s new book, “One Day, Everyone Will Have Always Been Against This,” that will stop you in your tracks.

NYU canceled a planned speech by the former president of Doctors Without Borders because she planned to discuss the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and cuts to US AID. This is what actual campus censorship looks like.

"we share a conviction that our Constitution, including its First Amendment, was designed to make dissent and debate possible without fear of government punishment." Letter from Harvard Law faculty drive.google.com/file/d/1aKzG...

This is a reminder that you can oppose 1) antisemitism, 2) the Gaza genocide, 3) the October 7 attacks, and 4) the current assault on universities, at the same time, and with no contradiction.

Funded by the US taxpayer.

The fact that Brad Schimel, who’s running to be A JUDGE — a person whose sole function is to preside over, and protect the law, is accepting ILLEGAL help from Elon Musk to win his election, is another example of how deeply corrupt they all are. Why hasn’t Brad Schimel denounced Musk?

Elon: why are you mad at me for cutting programs that provide life-saving services so rich people like me can have a big tax cut?

Just once, can somebody in the press please point out that the President does not actually have the legal authority to annex Greenland?

👇🧵 🌲 reminder of the reality about free speech on college campuses: bsky.app/profile/mcop...

Look, if you're going to bend the knee ... just bend the knee. Don't say you're tying your shoe.

What are we doing ?

Are we great again yet?

Kristi Noem billed South Dakota taxpayers more than $640,000 in personal travel-related costs, including a six-day trip to Paris, a bear hunt in Canada, a trip to Houston for dental work to fix her smile, and a book tour. But she can afford a $50,000 Rolex for a prison porn photo op in El Salvador.

This from a billionaire who drives health care workers and scientific researchers out of their jobs and then mocks them online