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theifs.bsky.social
Official account for Britain’s leading independent economic research institute. https://ifs.org.uk/
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 📊 #IFSSatStat: The Education Maintenance Allowance, a weekly cash transfer to disadvantaged students, may have had negative effects on their future earnings. We estimate that cumulatively across their twenties, the EMA generated a reduction in earnings of 3.5%.

submitted 3 hours ago • 1 comment

EVENT: A look ahead into the Spring Forecast Thurs 6 March | 13:00 – 14:00 | Online 🗓️ Sign up for our event on economic developments since Autumn and what this means for the Chancellor's Spring Forecast:

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

NEW #IFSWorkingPaper: The short- and long-run effects of paying disadvantaged teenagers to go to school by Jack Britton, @nickridpath.bsky.social, @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social & Ben Waltmann. Read here: https://buff.ly/43eeAuU

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

The Chancellor will present her Spring Forecast on 26 March. What can we expect? Will it be the non-event we were promised? Join us at an @theifs.bsky.social lunchtime webinar next Thursday - we'll be joined by Simon French to discuss the outlook and the options. ifs.org.uk/events/look-...

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

New evidence out on the EMA today. We find that while it did keep more students in full-time education, this didn't pass through to better quals or earnings later in life - in fact, reduced links to the labour market may have even reduced earnings. Have a read of the thread below and the report 👇

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

NEW #IFSWorkingPaper: Multitasking, two-part contracts, and bunching: an application to doctors' tasks @papiteide.bsky.social and Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes develop a novel empirical strategy to identify complementarities and substitutabilities in tasks. Read here: https://buff.ly/3EStaye

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

LIVE NOW: Watch our event on whether the Education Maintenance Allowance improved outcomes for disadvantaged students. 📺 Watch here: https://buff.ly/3Qx1ul0 ❓ Ask questions here: https://buff.ly/4gWeFH1

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

NEW: The Education Maintenance Allowance, a weekly cash transfer to disadvantaged students aged 16-19, did not improve their long-run outcomes. The EMA only provided around 40p of benefits to students for every £1 spent. THREAD on our new @nuffieldfoundation.org-funded report: [1/10]

submitted 3 days ago • 3 comments

📝New #NuffieldFunded report out tomorrow on the Education Maintenance Allowance. 💻Our Post-14 Education and Skills Programme Head Emily Tanner will be part of the webinar. 👇Register to join.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

There are some conflicting numbers floating around, because this government has followed in the steps of the last and used the biggest possible number for the "extra" defence spending this announcement entails, rather than the most meaningful. Minor footnote to a major announcement, but a quick 🧵

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

“The world has changed, and one question is whether the government's pre-existing promises on tax and spend might need to change as well.” @benzaranko.bsky.social responds to the government’s announcement of higher defence spending and cuts to aid spending: ifs.org.uk/articles/ifs...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Did the Education Maintenance Allowance improve outcomes? Join our event tomorrow at 11am with @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social, Professor Dame Alison Wolf, Paul Gregg and @nickridpath.bsky.social for new IFS research on the EMA's effects on outcomes for disadvantaged students:

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

📈 #IFSSatStat: Public spending on defence in the UK has decreased significantly in the past 70 years, while health spending has increased. The UK hasn't spent 3% of GDP on defence since 1993/94, 4% of GDP on defence since 1986/87 and 5% of GDP on defence since 1967/68.

submitted 7 days ago • 2 comments

Today’s ONS numbers estimate that the public sector ran a £15 billion surplus in January, smaller than forecast. This leaves borrowing for the year so far £13 billion above the OBR’s October forecast. [1/3]

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment

NEW: After £1.5 billion of top ups in 2024-25, day-to-day health spending faces a real terms freeze in 2025-26 according to the latest plans. David Phillips and Bee Boileau analyse the plans for 2025-26 spending in our new Scottish Budget report [Thread 1/4] ⬇️

submitted 9 days ago • 1 comment

EVENT: Did the Education Maintenance Allowance improve outcomes? Wed 26 Feb | 11am – 12:15pm | Online Sign up for our event with speakers Alison Wolf and Paul Gregg discussing the effects of EMA on educational attainment, chaired by @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social:

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

LIVE NOW: We present our analysis of the Scottish Budget 2025–26, chaired by David Phillips. 📺 Watch here: https://youtube.com/live/Sd0wob3Cpx0 ❔Ask questions here: https://app.sli.do/event/7VXUu1DWWmnqJWa6mDpUxX

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

NEW: After a bumper top-up this year, current plans imply a real-terms freeze in day-to-day Scottish health and social care spending in 2025–26 Bee Boileau and David Phillips' new Scottish Budget report examines the overall funding and spending outlook in the coming financial year:

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

NEW: Ending the small pots epidemic @laurenceobrien.bsky.social writes about why the proliferation of small deferred pension pots is burdensome, and the policy options, for Pensions Age:

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

The UK hasn't spent 3% of GDP on defence since 1993/94, hasn't spent 4% of GDP on defence since 1986/87, and hasn't spent 5% of GDP on defence since 1967/68. Data available to download here: ifs.org.uk/data-items/p...

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

IFS Deputy Director Carl Emmerson joined the AJ Bell Money & Markets Deep Dive podcast this week to discuss why taxes are set to reach historic highs and if more tax rises could be on the way. 🎧 Listen to the podcast here:

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

The government's energy support packages in 2022–23 significantly alleviated household losses, but were poorly targeted and encouraged overuse of energy. Our briefing finds that better design could have saved £4.5 billion: ifs.org.uk/articles/how...

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

NEW: Median public sector pay is up by 5% in Scotland since 2019, in contrast to no UK-wide increase. Jonathan Cribb, Magdalena Domínguez and @laurenceobrien.bsky.social's new Scottish Budget report analyses Scottish public sector employment and pay, and the policy implications: [THREAD: 1/7]

submitted 11 days ago • 2 comments

"I think over the years, the OBR has really matured very well." Dr Gerard Lyons (Chief Economic Strategist at Netwealth) discusses the success of the OBR with @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social in our latest podcast. 🎧 Catch the full episode here: https://ifs.org.uk/articles/how-important-obr-forecast

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

I'm quoted in today's Observer - longer version below. The core issue: HM Treasury deliberately leaves itself ~zero fiscal headroom, partly to strengthen its negotiating hand with spending departments, but this leaves policy completely exposed to global shocks. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

"There is much to learn about both the economics and the political economy. But the big lessons are straightforward enough. They should not take years of work or vast sums of money to uncover." 📰 @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social's @thetimes.com column, now free to read here: ifs.org.uk/articles/spe...

submitted 12 days ago • 1 comment