theifs.bsky.social
Official account for Britain’s leading independent economic research institute. https://ifs.org.uk/
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“The EMA, which cost billions through the 2000s, did not have the hoped-for positive effects.”
Read Jack Britton, @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social, @nickridpath.bsky.social and Ben Waltmann's report: https://buff.ly/3EVJIWb
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[10/10]
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In total, the Education Maintenance Allowance only provided around 40p of benefits to students for every £1 spent.
The large direct benefits for students receiving the cash were lost due to reductions in employment and wages.
[9/10]
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There is tentative evidence that the EMA resulted in a small reduction in criminal behaviour.
Students who performed poorly at GCSE, who were most likely to be brought into education, also saw some reductions in criminal convictions – around 7% – as a result.
[8/10]
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For those in employment, the EMA also led to possible negative effects: we estimate annual earnings fell by around 1% as a result of the EMA.
Cumulatively across their twenties, this meant the EMA generated a statistically significant reduction in earnings of 3.5%.
[7/10]
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The EMA even had negative effects on employment and earnings in the long run: students were less likely to be earning enough to qualify for National Insurance and more likely to receive out-of-work benefits.
[6/10]
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However, the EMA didn’t lead to improved performance to school for recipients. There was no increase in vocational qualifications or A Levels, and no increase in university attendance.
[5/10]
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In response to the EMA, students reduced their time in work significantly. Those in full-time education reduced their earnings by over 10% in response to the extra income.
[4/10]
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The effects on education participation for those receiving the EMA were largest for those with low performance at GCSE, as well as for students for Special Educational Needs and boys.
[3/10]
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The Education Maintenance Allowance gave £30 per week to 16-19 year old students from low-income families.
We find that it did increase participation in full-time education, but mostly at the expense of training schemes like apprenticeships.
[2/10]
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Chart from here, which has some discussion of how asylum costs are treated in the aid target ifs.org.uk/articles/thr...
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Cutting Official Development Assistance to 0.3% of GDP means that a massive fraction of our aid budget will be spent in the UK on accommodation for asylum seekers. I don't have an up to date estimate, but could easily be half. Leaves much, much less for "traditional" aid.
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If – and it is still very much an if – the forecast moves against the Chancellor next month, she’ll face a truly unenviable set of choices. [3/3]
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January usually sees a large share of the year’s self-assessment income tax revenues. This year, self-assessment revenues were below the OBR forecast, contributing to the smaller-than-expected budget surplus for the month. This could yet be revised in subsequent outturns. [2/3]
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Read the full report and all of our analysis of the Scottish Budget here: ifs.org.uk/collections/...
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Such small increases in overall funding mean tricky trade-offs between services.
Meeting rising costs of health and social care would likely require cuts elsewhere – potentially large ones.
Constraints on health spend and/or tax rises are also possible options. [3/4]
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Funding levels for 2026-27 will become a bit clearer after the UK govt's June Spending Review.
The @scotgov's projections – 1.4% increases above inflation a year – are on the optimistic side.
We think, given UK's indicative spending totals, a figure could be closer to 0.5%. [2/4]
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The Scottish public sector retains more of its workforce than the English public sector.
But that gap has narrowed since 2019, despite public sector pay having risen in Scotland relative to England.
[6/7]
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More research is needed to understand the impact of the Scottish government’s pay policies, so it can best target future pay rises.
Read the full report here: https://ifs.org.uk/publications/scottish-public-sector-employment-and-pay
[7/7]
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The Scottish public sector retains more of its workforce than the English public sector.
But that gap has narrowed since 2019, despite public sector pay having risen in Scotland relative to England.
[6/7]
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Despite these issues, higher pay is a reasonable choice that Scotland has made, especially given issues in recruiting & retaining public sector workers elsewhere in the UK.
[5/7]
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The Scottish Government therefore needs to find the money for pay increases for its bigger and better-paid workforce from its own devolved revenues and/or less spending elsewhere.
[4/7]
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The Scottish public sector paybill of £27bn per year poses an increasing financial challenge.
This is especially true given that the funding it receives from the UK government increases in line with spending per person in England, where pay has increased less quickly.
[3/7]
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Scotland employs a higher fraction of the workforce in the public sector than any English region.
Public sector employment in Scotland has also grown by a larger fraction since 2017 than in any other part of the UK except Wales.
[2/7]
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📊 Read Magdalena Domínguez and @benzaranko.bsky.social's report on justice spending and explore the data here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
📗 Find out more about our Transforming Justice project funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org here: ifs.org.uk/transforming...