thestudyofwar.bsky.social
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: [email protected]. For more: https://linktr.ee/understandingwar
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3/ Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to conduct successful long-range strikes that target Russia's defense industrial base (DIB).
Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Siversk and Kurakhove. isw.pub/UkrWar061225
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2/ Russian forces have reportedly sustained an average of 1,286 casualties per day between January and early June 2025 in exchange for marginal territorial gains.
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3/ Russian officials are also attempting to rhetorically split Ukraine from its Western partners and advocating for an escalation of Russian strike tactics in Ukraine as part of wider efforts to intimidate the West into weakening its support for Ukraine.
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar061125
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2/ The Kremlin continues to attack Ukraine using rhetoric presenting an anachronistic reading of Ukraine's history, denying the existence of an independent Ukrainian language and culture, and discrediting the Ukrainian government.
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6/ Syria Sanctions: US Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack told al Monitor on June 10 that the US holds several “expectations” for Syrian President Ahmed al Shara to act upon following the US decision to lift sanctions on Syria.
Iran Update w/ @criticalthreats.bsky.social: isw.pub/IranUpdate06...
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5/ Iran-Russia Cooperation: Russia offered to accept Iran's "excess" enriched uranium stockpile as part of a potential US-Iran nuclear agreement.
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4/ IAEA Board of Governors Meeting: The United States and the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) submitted a non-compliance resolution that declares Iran in non-compliance with its safeguards obligations at the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting on June 11.
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3/ Iranian Threats Towards the United States: Iran continues to threaten to target US and Israeli assets in the region, likely to deter potential US or Israeli strikes on Iran.
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2/ Some reports suggest that Iran is opposed to several provisions of a recent US nuclear negotiations proposal.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which monitors maritime security issues, also reacted on June 11 to increased tensions in the region.
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Significant Russian Military Exercises
Russian forces continued major naval exercises in the Baltic Sea involving more than 20 warships and 25 aircraft, likely in support of the Kremlin's recent escalatory rhetoric against the Baltic States.
Full report here: isw.pub/ForceGen061125
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Russian Technological Adaptations
Russia is belatedly constructing hangars and other defensive infrastructure across airfields in Russia and in occupied Ukraine to protect Russian aircraft from Ukrainian drones.
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Russian authorities approved a plan to construct a "Warrior Temple" for Russian veterans of the war in Ukraine outside of St. Petersburg.
Russian Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Government announced on June 9 the establishment of the Russian Artificial Intelligence (AI) Development Center.
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Militarization of Society and Youth
Russian authorities reportedly proposed that Rosgvardia oblige cadets to watch state media propaganda programs in an effort to involve them in special propaganda and counter propaganda efforts.
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Russian Military Reforms and Force Restructuring
The Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) is reportedly planning to bolster security around Russian infrastructure to protect infrastructure from Ukrainian drones.
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The Kremlin appears to have entrusted a Russian billionaire with control of the Africa Corps, contradicting the ongoing centralization effort.
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Russian Force Centralization
The Wagner Group announced on June 6 that it is leaving Mali after 3.5 years likely as part of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) ongoing effort to replace remaining Wagner personnel with state-controlled Africa Corps.
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3/ The Iranian Supreme National Defense University published its first-ever analysis on military lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war.
Russian intelligence has reportedly grown concerned about PRC espionage since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Read more: isw.pub/AdversaryEnt...
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2/ Putin likely seeks to portray Russia as a useful collaborator and partner that the United States needs to achieve certain global outcomes. It is far from clear, however, that Russia has the leverage to help secure a nuclear agreement.
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3/ Hezbollah is reportedly prioritizing domestic drone production in order to reduce its reliance on procuring Iranian weapons. Hezbollah likely seeks to prioritize domestic drone production after recent setbacks that have complicated its ability to procure and smuggle Iranian weapons into Lebanon.
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2/ The Syrian transitional government has quickly responded to several false reports of insurgent activity in coastal Syria over the last week. The rapid response shows that the government remains concerned about violence in coastal Syria despite low levels of Alawite insurgency activity there.
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3/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Borova, Lyman, and Toretsk.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Toretsk. isw.pub/UkrWar061025
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2/ Russia is reportedly working to increase the number of North Korean labor migrants in Russia, likely to support Russia's workforce and join the Russian military.
Ukraine and Russia conducted the second round of POW exchanges on June 10, per agreements the parties reached in Istanbul on June 2.
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4/ Russia is consolidating control over occupied Ukraine in the digital sphere.
The ongoing “Great Russian Word” festival in occupied Crimea highlights Russian efforts to use the Russian language as a tool of sociocultural occupation.
Russian Occupation Update:
isw.pub/OccupationUpdate060925
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3/ Russian occupation courts continue to weaponize spurious or overblown “high treason” charges to prosecute residents of occupied Crimea for perceived anti-Russian or pro-Ukrainian sentiment.
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2/ Schools in occupied Kherson Oblast are introducing new curricula for the upcoming school year to encourage high birth rates amongst Ukrainian youth and to propagate traditional Russian family values.
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2/ ISW assessed in early 2025 that Russia was using economic incentives that are unrelated to the war in Ukraine to extract concessions from the US about the war in Ukraine, and Russia's use of incentives related to arms control talks appears to be the latest iteration of this overall effort.
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3/ Ukraine and Russia on June 9 conducted the first round of the POW exchanges that the parties agreed to during the latest bilateral talks in Istanbul on June 2 as Russian officials continued to baselessly accuse Ukraine of failing to repatriate the bodies of killed in action (KIA) soldiers.
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2/ Russian forces conducted the largest combined missile and drone strike of the war overnight on June 8 & 9
Ukrainian forces continue to conduct drone strikes against Russian military and defense industrial targets that are involved in Russia's long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukraine.