thestudyofwar.bsky.social
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: [email protected]. For more: https://linktr.ee/understandingwar
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3/ Hezbollah is reportedly prioritizing domestic drone production in order to reduce its reliance on procuring Iranian weapons. Hezbollah likely seeks to prioritize domestic drone production after recent setbacks that have complicated its ability to procure and smuggle Iranian weapons into Lebanon.
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2/ The Syrian transitional government has quickly responded to several false reports of insurgent activity in coastal Syria over the last week. The rapid response shows that the government remains concerned about violence in coastal Syria despite low levels of Alawite insurgency activity there.
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3/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Borova, Lyman, and Toretsk.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Toretsk. isw.pub/UkrWar061025
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2/ Russia is reportedly working to increase the number of North Korean labor migrants in Russia, likely to support Russia's workforce and join the Russian military.
Ukraine and Russia conducted the second round of POW exchanges on June 10, per agreements the parties reached in Istanbul on June 2.
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4/ Russia is consolidating control over occupied Ukraine in the digital sphere.
The ongoing “Great Russian Word” festival in occupied Crimea highlights Russian efforts to use the Russian language as a tool of sociocultural occupation.
Russian Occupation Update:
isw.pub/OccupationUpdate060925
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3/ Russian occupation courts continue to weaponize spurious or overblown “high treason” charges to prosecute residents of occupied Crimea for perceived anti-Russian or pro-Ukrainian sentiment.
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2/ Schools in occupied Kherson Oblast are introducing new curricula for the upcoming school year to encourage high birth rates amongst Ukrainian youth and to propagate traditional Russian family values.
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2/ ISW assessed in early 2025 that Russia was using economic incentives that are unrelated to the war in Ukraine to extract concessions from the US about the war in Ukraine, and Russia's use of incentives related to arms control talks appears to be the latest iteration of this overall effort.
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3/ Ukraine and Russia on June 9 conducted the first round of the POW exchanges that the parties agreed to during the latest bilateral talks in Istanbul on June 2 as Russian officials continued to baselessly accuse Ukraine of failing to repatriate the bodies of killed in action (KIA) soldiers.
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2/ Russian forces conducted the largest combined missile and drone strike of the war overnight on June 8 & 9
Ukrainian forces continue to conduct drone strikes against Russian military and defense industrial targets that are involved in Russia's long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukraine.
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3/ ISW will continue to assess the situation in southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and update its assessment.
Russian officials have repeatedly signaled that the Kremlin has wider territorial ambitions in Ukraine, including in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar060825
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2/ ISW assesses that current Russian tactical activity in the vicinity of SE Dnipropetrovsk is a continuation of ongoing Russian offensive efforts in southwestern Donetsk Oblast — not the beginning of a new major offensive operation to seize operationally significant territory in Dnipropetrovsk.
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4/ Maximum US economic pressure against Russia is not possible without continued military sales to Ukraine.
Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar060725
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3/ US President Donald Trump signaled on June 6 that he could be willing to increase sanctions against Russia. Russia's economic struggles, however, have been and will continue to be driven by Russian military losses on the battlefield.
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2/ This is part of the Kremlin's efforts to undermine mutually agreed upon confidence building measures with Ukraine.
Russian officials continue efforts to deflect blame away from Russia and onto Western states for the lack of progress toward a peace settlement.
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5/ Putin’s theory of victory depends on the Western alliance backing Ukraine abandoning Ukraine as a necessary condition to bring about this scale of advance.
Russia is very unlikely to seize half of Ukraine if the international coalition continues supporting Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar060625
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5/ Putin’s theory of victory depends on the Western alliance backing Ukraine abandoning Ukraine as a necessary condition to bring about this scale of advance.
Russia is very unlikely to seize half of Ukraine if the international coalition continues supporting Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar060625
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4/ The Russian military is likely unable to achieve its purported 2026 objectives, given the significant manpower and materiel losses Russian forces have sustained over the last three years of war and the Russian forces’ inability to achieve operational maneuver on the battlefield.
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3/ Russia’s purported military campaign plans for 2025 and 2026 are consistent with long-standing Russian territorial objectives and recent statements by pro-Kremlin voices in the information space.
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2/ The Russian military command’s purported objectives for 2026 extend far beyond Russia’s formal territorial demands and aim to seize a significant part of central Ukraine and most of southern and eastern Ukraine.
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2/2 For more information and to apply: isw.pub/CommsPublish...
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7/ Russian Economy
The Russian government is reportedly pressuring Russian Central Bank Chairperson Elvira Nabiullina to lower Russia’s key interest rate on June 6 to reduce the impact of high interest rates on the Russian budget and civilian industries. isw.pub/ForceGen060625
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6/ Tech Adaptations
Russian developers continued to test and deploy new anti-drone measures such as combat lasers, tools to cut fiber-optic cables, and electronic warfare adaptations.
Russian forces have deployed into combat jet-powered Dan-M drones, which can be launched from Mi-8 helicopters.
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5/ Russia is reportedly recruiting Ukrainian teenagers in occupied Ukraine to produce strike drones in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Republic of Tatarstan.
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4/ Russian Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Digital Development, Communications, and Mass Media Ministry is considering introducing restrictions on the use of foreign-made cloud servers in hopes of incentivizing and speeding up the creation of a state-controlled cloud server.
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3/ Integration of Veterans into Russian Society
Russian law enforcement arrested leaders of two combat veteran public and non-profit organizations, possibly as part of the Kremlin's ongoing effort to establish state-controlled and pro-war veteran organizations.
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2/ Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
Russia is forming and training anti-unmanned aerial systems (UAVs) groups across different military branches in an effort to defend military infrastructure.
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6/ PLA aircraft incursions into Taiwan's de-facto Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) sustained a high frequency in May.
Read more in this week's update: isw.pub/ChinaTaiwan0...
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5/ China Coast Guard (CCG) ships patrolled within Taiwan’s restricted waters around Pratas Island at least three times in May. CCG patrols around Pratas and incursions into Pratas waters since Feb may indicate a new area of focus in the PRC’s erosion of Taiwanese sovereignty around its territory.
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4/ Petitions to recall two Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators failed. Taiwan’s mass recall movement has overwhelmingly favored the DPP over the opposition Kuomintang (KMT).