thestudyofwar.bsky.social
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: [email protected]. For more: https://linktr.ee/understandingwar
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3/ Ukraine and Russia conducted a fourth round of prisoner of war (POWs) exchanges on June 14, in accordance with the June 2 Ukrainian-Russian bilateral talks in Istanbul.
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar061425
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2/ Ukrainian forces continue to conduct long-range strikes against Russia's defense industrial base.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced near Toretsk and Novopavlivka.
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5/ Some of Iran’s partners and proxies in the Axis of Resistance have so far failed to meaningfully intervene and impose costs on Israel for targeting Iran.
isw.pub/IranSpecialR...
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4/ Iranian officials said that Iran will not return to US-Iran nuclear negotiations until Israel halts its attacks on Iran and Iran has finished its retaliatory attacks on Israel.
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3/ Iran has launched seven waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since initial Israeli strikes on June 12.
Iran may respond to the Israeli escalation by threatening international maritime security.
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2/ Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by targeting critical energy infrastructure. This expansion marks new Israeli efforts to degrade Iran’s capacity to sustain its military and nuclear program.
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4/ The IDF has reportedly continued to target Iranian military targets. Some of these strikes—but not all—seek to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.
Read the full special report: isw.pub/IranSpecialR...
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3/ Iran has conducted six waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since the initial Israeli strikes on June 12. At least 10 interceptors, shrapnel, or ballistic missiles struck the Tel Aviv area, causing damage to high-rise buildings, over 60 injuries, & one death.
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2/ This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s observation that degrading Iran’s retaliatory capabilities was one objective of the initial Israeli strikes on June 12.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian air defense systems to maintain air superiority over Iran.
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Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
The Kremlin is continuing efforts to prepare the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) for a protracted war with Ukraine and a potential future war with NATO.
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Additional Key Takeaways:
Oil price increases following Israeli strikes against Iran may increase Russian revenue from oil sales and improve Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.
Russia released the bodies of killed in action (KIA) Ukrainian servicemembers to Ukraine on June 13.
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3/ Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to conduct successful long-range strikes that target Russia's defense industrial base (DIB).
Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Siversk and Kurakhove. isw.pub/UkrWar061225
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2/ Russian forces have reportedly sustained an average of 1,286 casualties per day between January and early June 2025 in exchange for marginal territorial gains.
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3/ Russian officials are also attempting to rhetorically split Ukraine from its Western partners and advocating for an escalation of Russian strike tactics in Ukraine as part of wider efforts to intimidate the West into weakening its support for Ukraine.
Read more: isw.pub/UkrWar061125
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2/ The Kremlin continues to attack Ukraine using rhetoric presenting an anachronistic reading of Ukraine's history, denying the existence of an independent Ukrainian language and culture, and discrediting the Ukrainian government.
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6/ Syria Sanctions: US Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack told al Monitor on June 10 that the US holds several “expectations” for Syrian President Ahmed al Shara to act upon following the US decision to lift sanctions on Syria.
Iran Update w/ @criticalthreats.bsky.social: isw.pub/IranUpdate06...
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5/ Iran-Russia Cooperation: Russia offered to accept Iran's "excess" enriched uranium stockpile as part of a potential US-Iran nuclear agreement.
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4/ IAEA Board of Governors Meeting: The United States and the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) submitted a non-compliance resolution that declares Iran in non-compliance with its safeguards obligations at the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors meeting on June 11.
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3/ Iranian Threats Towards the United States: Iran continues to threaten to target US and Israeli assets in the region, likely to deter potential US or Israeli strikes on Iran.
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2/ Some reports suggest that Iran is opposed to several provisions of a recent US nuclear negotiations proposal.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which monitors maritime security issues, also reacted on June 11 to increased tensions in the region.
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Significant Russian Military Exercises
Russian forces continued major naval exercises in the Baltic Sea involving more than 20 warships and 25 aircraft, likely in support of the Kremlin's recent escalatory rhetoric against the Baltic States.
Full report here: isw.pub/ForceGen061125
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Russian Technological Adaptations
Russia is belatedly constructing hangars and other defensive infrastructure across airfields in Russia and in occupied Ukraine to protect Russian aircraft from Ukrainian drones.
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Russian authorities approved a plan to construct a "Warrior Temple" for Russian veterans of the war in Ukraine outside of St. Petersburg.
Russian Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Government announced on June 9 the establishment of the Russian Artificial Intelligence (AI) Development Center.
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Militarization of Society and Youth
Russian authorities reportedly proposed that Rosgvardia oblige cadets to watch state media propaganda programs in an effort to involve them in special propaganda and counter propaganda efforts.
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Russian Military Reforms and Force Restructuring
The Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) is reportedly planning to bolster security around Russian infrastructure to protect infrastructure from Ukrainian drones.
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The Kremlin appears to have entrusted a Russian billionaire with control of the Africa Corps, contradicting the ongoing centralization effort.
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Russian Force Centralization
The Wagner Group announced on June 6 that it is leaving Mali after 3.5 years likely as part of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) ongoing effort to replace remaining Wagner personnel with state-controlled Africa Corps.
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3/ The Iranian Supreme National Defense University published its first-ever analysis on military lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war.
Russian intelligence has reportedly grown concerned about PRC espionage since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Read more: isw.pub/AdversaryEnt...
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2/ Putin likely seeks to portray Russia as a useful collaborator and partner that the United States needs to achieve certain global outcomes. It is far from clear, however, that Russia has the leverage to help secure a nuclear agreement.