tuomorusila.bsky.social
Finnish Army Officer, NatSec, miltech, defence economics, disruptive tech (esp. robotics, AxS, DEW, cyber). DIY STEM demo geek. Opinions are my own.
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912 followers
72 following
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Kertoo lähinnä, kuinka heikoilla jäillä ollaan, jos selittelyssä mennään tasolle "en ole salaliittoteoreetikko, mutta..."
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Kaikki on jenkeissäkin nyt yhtä #Venäjä, #Venäjä, #Venäjä'ä
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Have to say, their PR efforts have been exemplary during this case.
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Ben Wallace: "I didn't support Ukraine for some mineral deal... We stood up for Ukraine because standing up to bullies is the right thing to do".
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Who has been screeming bloody murder (in addition to the regular crowd who think even every sprained ankle is Krem's doing)?
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Why it has to be someone on-site in order to detect this deviation?
Submarine cable operator are able to monitor cable remotely and based on previous cases, they are able to locate e.g. fiber optic faults with an accuracy of tens of meters remotely.
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IMO this makes it unlikely that Telepaatti found that damage.
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They have several ROVs.
lilaco-offshore.com/fi/kalusto/r...
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'Discovered' could mean that Cinia noticed it during normal monitoring.
How close to Sealion was Telepaatti on Wednesday? The most likely don't have several hundred meters of cable for ROV...if they even have one.
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But that is solely Your assumption, right?
Based on the interviews given to Yle, Cinia does not have exact information about the damage. They suppose e.g. a scratch on the protective cover could cause this. Wording indicates that the damage has not been detected by that vessel or its ROV.
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Could that lifting etc. needed for LV-SE cable repair be the reason for damage? It is older cable than Sealion, so LV-SE would be under it.
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👌
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Do you have experience dragging an anchor?
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Yes you can.
bsky.app/profile/tuom...
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Paper in this post recognizes 8 cases in relatively short time, seven of them in relatively small area.
bsky.app/profile/tuom...
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But that is totally different discussion; can a single incident be an accident vs. can all be accidents. Mixing these is purposeful, or even misleading.
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There can be 10 or 50 safety mechanims, but still there has been actual incidents that have been accidents. No bullet proof systems exists.
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In spite of several safety systems, accidents do happen in every industry due to technical failure, lack of maintanance, human error, neglect or combination of these. Maritime transport sector (or anchors) is no exception.
Denying this is usually seen as part of problem, not as solution.
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It has happened several times before these incidents and before current geopol tension (i.e. unlikely state motivation).
Marine ins. companies recognice this possibility based on their actual cases.
A number of captains have told to their Finnish colleagues in public about these kinds of insidents
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There is also a substantial risk of bias in this type of argumentation; Seamanship is easily assessed based on one's own high standards, even though the reality is something completely different in these rusty buckets.
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IMHO Vezhen case had a salutary effect on the public debate, but also on expert analysis in general; suddenly impossibility became possible and intentional damage/sabotage became negligent/accident.
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This is a backdoor. Elon's coders are creating a backdoor into the US Treasury. This is incredibly dangerous both because of its intended use (by Elon and Trump) and the risk of other actors exploiting a major security vulnerability to cause a massive disruption to the US government.
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That ain't the highest single wave but significant wave height.
This means per definition that the highest single wave is most likely ~ 7 m.
en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/significant-...
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Does 2.6 m wave mean 'significant wave height', 'biggest significant wave height during her voyage' or actual 'hightest single wave', which can be ~2× the hight of 'significant wave height'?
Where is this wave data taken from?
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Ships exact route (i.e. actual water depth ), hull shape, speed, and draft greatly affects this effect. Tankers are most prone to this.
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How shallow is was? Could it have just been the squat effect in action?
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Thanks! I neither expect high-ish Gs.
I'm looking for whether it is possible to estimate the time it took the anchor to fall; was it slow or fast phenomenon. Anchor+chain have noticeable 'form drag' due to their surface area already before they hit the seabed. This could be visible in the data.
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Do you have more than 3-4 data points from this deceleration phase? It would help to estimate how sudden that phenomenon has initially been.
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Olisko #mystifiointiporno mitään?
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You are counting cables, but that's IMO distorting approach. Count ships, because those are the active and attributable factor in this.
And the above report did not contain information on how many cables were damaged, so only the number of ships can be compared.
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But there are 7 examples of damage to submarine cables by the anchors of ships underway in an area comparable to the Baltic Sea and over a period of 2-3 years.
Point being; these events, even in such sudden bursts, are not unheard of.
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Apparently it is more common than generally thought. A small sample;
The Threat of Damage to Submarine Cables by the Anchors of Ships Underway cil.nus.edu.sg/wp-content/u...
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Also @auonsson.bsky.social's estimate of the 5% share of global maritime transportation seems to be very low. bsky.app/profile/tuom...
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Dao and Grape have nice study on dynamics between different types of anchors and seabed.
One remark worth to noticing;
"Slower dragging speeds result in greater penetration depths, while higher speeds may result in the anchor gliding over the seabed"
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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@auonsson.bsky.social
Loaded up the data points in QGIS
Vessel speed (color scale 6.5-8.5 kt)
Red dashed: telecom, blue: gas/petrolium, green: power.
Speed seems to correlate well with changes in bathymetry
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"The Baltic Sea is one of the heavily trafficked sea areas in the world, accounting for up to 15% of the global sea transportation."
shipowners.fi/en/digitaliz...
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Dupuy instituutin historialliset tilastot antavat siihen vähintään riittävän hyviä peukalosääntöjä.
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Huomioitko laskuissa, että historiallisesti n. 75% WIA palaa takaisin TST-kentälle? Tämä vaikuttaa merkittävästi kumuloituviin tappioihin eli siihen kuinka nopeasti laskelmiesi 20/50/100% tulee täyteen.