umsonst.bsky.social
Earth-System Nerd
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Important here:
a decline of ocean heat uptake means in essence a warmer surface ocean which induces a cloud feedback which actually increases ocean heat uptake while latent heat loss also increases which then becomes one additional driver of surface air temperatures over warmer surface oceans...
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But if you get an acceleration of global warming never ever discuss the opposite as a possible reason as its way too inconvenient!
I do now know 4 studies warning that a decline of ocean heat uptake could be possible out of 4 different reasons...
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Here my compilation of model errors - but just started it and included only the most recent ones with many still missing...
An Earth system in motion produces lots of model errors...
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Its not about including feedbacks as they are often only included pro forma - simplistic parametrizations that do not hold before reality...
Here a small list of model errors - but its just the tip of the ice berg as I just started it and included only the most recent ones popping up:
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The only reason models are still "right" is that all these feedbacks are just now coming into motion mutually amplifying each other...
We can only hope that the feedbacks won't be so extreme, as models for sure can't tell currently but observations show that we get here a massive feedback reaction!
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O could go on for hours - the problem with you folks is that you lost completely the overview on Earth system changes and how modes are able to simulate them!
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SO hey lets take a look at fires: "So far, 13 models out of 134 ESMs participating in the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6)20 have represented the coupling between permafrost, soil hydrology, and fires18,21." ARE YOU KIDDING ME???
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Here another warning from a team at the Mackenzie River Delta:
"Source, Migration Pathways, and Atmospheric Release of Geologic Methane Associated With the Complex Permafrost Regimes of the Outer Mackenzie River Delta, Northwest Territories, Canada"; agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
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Svalbard shares a similar geological and glacial history with much of the Circum-Arctic, suggesting that sub-permafrost gas accumulations are regionally common.
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Then lets take the geologic methane emission warning in the Arctic - recent warning as the methane bomb is in the process to go off:
"Natural gas is actually migrating under permafrost, and could see methane emissions skyrocket if it escapes"; www.frontiersin.org/news/2023/12...
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Oh a massive methane leak detected: columns of methane in the ocean up to 700 meters long and 70 meters wide [...] These previously unknown emissions could potentially represent an environmental bomb for the planet’s climate.
Wait here for the study on this expedition!
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Here the warming from Antarctic oops seeps popping up all over the place in depths as shallow as 10m
Fun fact_ west antarctica could have reached a tipping point - so we could be already be in a runaway global warming as YOU DO NOT KNOW!
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And where are we in 2025? warnings all over the place as observations show its starting and we have no clue how strong it will be - therefore a fun fact: could be rate dependent with glacier mass loss - faster melting = non-proportional tectonic changes
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How is the geologic methane bomb (not included at all in the models) in the Arctic oh what a cry out it has been in 2019 - no no no
"Fact-Check: is an Arctic “Methane Bomb” about to go off?" climatetippingpoints.info/2019/05/13/f...
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Then the start of the CH4 feedback which has started in the 2010s - CH4 modules did not see it coming till the end of century - just take a look at IPCC values of this feedback - very small while its already starting
"Recent methane surges reveal heightened emissions from tropical inundated areas"
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How is it with Antarctic sea ice having large control on the warming in the Southern Hemisphere also via secondary impacts on circulation patterns - models were dead wrong here also
When was sea ice decline predicted to happen? Middle or end of the century in models???
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Then we have the great oops:
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"Low latency carbon budget analysis reveals a large decline of the land carbon sink in 2023"; academic.oup.com/nsr/article/...
"Low latency global carbon budget reveals a continuous decline of the land carbon sink during the 2023/24 El Nino event"; arxiv.org/abs/2504.09189
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Oops!
"Observation-constrained projections reveal longer-than-expected dry spells"; www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Or take the collapse of the terrestrial biosphere - what a fail of models which see an increase even in the highest emission scenarios while its already collapsing as models significantly underestimated the increases in drought and heat extremes
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Always surprising how climate scientist still can pretend models get the feedbacks right - just to miss the increase in EEI by 50% means that models are dead wrong!
And its a mutual reinforcing feedback between warmer surface oceans, upper ocean stratification, and clouds feeding on each other...
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There is a difference between including feedbacks via simplistic parametrizations and to include them right - and here we have a complete fail in many regards
The most recent one
CM do not include changes in viscosity as its fixed inside the models and now we find out it could be highly important
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The thought of an ever more and faster wobbling mid-latitude tropospause due to these hot and cold extremes caused by north/south air masses, soil-moisture-temperature cascades, and sometimes extreme "hot" upper air supercharging high pressure systems amplifying heatwaves fascinates me...
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oh...
The tropopause layer which declines to the poles in height is called curvature of the troposphere
This upper "ceiling" starts increasingly to wobble because of greater neighboring temperature gradients which can swap ever faster
One victim: the polar vortex in the stratosphere during winter
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admissions that models got it so wrong...
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Just popped up in my suggestions time line
Waited for such studies as there exist one study on the extreme rainfall in Mozambique in 2018(?) with some ~5Mt extra CH4 emissions from just two events
One event transformed the country into a lake
Here the next on this central topic - inundated areas
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Here with this study it started: "However, the climate models examined so far seem to underestimate the trends by half–particularly in the short-wave."
"CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance" www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...
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doi.org/10.5194/egus...
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Underestimation of Methane Emissions From the Sudd Wetland: Unraveling the Impact of Wetland Extent Dynamics agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
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Using satellite data to identify the methane emission controls of South Sudan's wetlands bg.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
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Underestimation of Methane Emissions From the Sudd
Wetland: Unraveling the Impact of Wetland Extent
Dynamics
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We find a twofold emission increase from 2018 to 2019 (9.2 ± 2.4 Tg yr−1) to 2020 to 2022 (16.3 ± 3.3 Tg yr−1)
Integrating Satellite Observations and Hydrological Models to Unravel Large TROPOMI Methane Emissions in South Sudan Wetlands