wwattribution.bsky.social
Rapid attribution to uncover the influence of climate change on heatwaves, drought, wildfire, storms and floods.
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For the full study ▶️
www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
📷:Ackinbj
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New homes in England must now consider extreme heat, but most existing homes remain at risk. Poorer urban areas face higher temperatures due to dense housing and less green space. Policies to manage heat are fragmented and fall short of the growing threat.
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The study highlights how even days above 28°C can be deadly. Older populations who live alone are most at risk, as their bodies can struggle to deal with existing health conditions in the heat and they can have difficulty calling for help when they become unwell.
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Before humans burned vast quantities of oil, gas and coal, a day reaching 32°C in June would be extremely rare, expected only once every 2,500 years on average. Today, however, similarly hot days have become about 100 times more likely, occurring about once every 25 years.
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Before climate change, three hot June days over 28°C happened about once every 50 years. With 1.3°C of warming, it's now ten times more likely—around once every five years. June heatwaves are also 2 to 4°C hotter than they used to be.
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Our analysis focused on a region of southeast England which uses a threshold of three consecutive days above 28oC to define heatwaves. We looked at the likelihood of the heatwave criteria being met in June and the chance of a single day in June reaching 32°C.
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It's been sweltering this week. A yellow heat-health alert was issued Tuesday, followed by a more severe amber alert for all of England yesterday. Soon after, dozens of people required treatment for heat-related illness at the Royal Ascot Races in heat above 29°C.
bsky.app/profile/chlo...
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For the full study ▶️ www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
📷: Haukur Haraldsson, Icelandic Met Office
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Iceland usually sees few heat-related deaths, but this year’s early high temps may have affected people with health issues before they could adapt. Warnings of sunburn and melting roads show how cold-climate countries are beginning to experience new climate risks.
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Greenland loses 43b tonnes of ice yearly. Just 1.5°C of warming could push its ice sheet past a tipping point, triggering meters of sea level rise and threatening low-lying islands. Melting ice also slows the AMOC, a key ocean current, risking major shifts in global weather.
📷:UN Photo/Mark Garten
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Melting sea ice is disrupting travel and hunting for Inuit communities in Greenland, who make up 90% of the population. Indigenous peoples face outsized climate impacts due to their close dependence on natural resources and vulnerability stemming from historical exploitation.
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The heat from May 15-21 corresponded with melting of the Greenland ice sheet that was about 17 times higher than average for this time of year, according to preliminary analysis of surface melt data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
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We also analysed data from the Ittoqqortoormiit station in eastern Greenland. The hottest day in May was about 3.9°C warmer than it would have been in the preindustrial climate. While this analysis did not include climate models, it's likely that almost all of the increase was due to climate change.
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We found the seven days of heat in May was about 3°C hotter in Iceland. If warming reaches 2.6°C, which is expected by 2100 unless countries rapidly move away from oil, gas and coal, similar heatwaves are expected to become a further 2°C more intense.
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On May 15, the Egilsstaðir Airport station in Iceland recorded 26.6°C, a new national record for May.
Just days later, on May 19, the Ittoqqortoormiit station in eastern Greenland reported 14.3°C, far above the monthly average of daily maximum temperatures of 0.8°C.
📷: Icelandic Met Office
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climatescibreak.bsky.social
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For the full study ▶️ www.worldweatherattribution.org/effective-em...
📷US Army National Guard
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However, heavier rain underscores the need for a well-resourced disaster workforce. Nearly half of NWS field offices are believed to have vacancy rates of 20% or more and a recent open letter from former NWS also leaders warned that strained NWS offices could lead to a “needless loss of life.”
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The study highlights the critical role forecasting and early warning plays in keeping Americans safe. The rain was well forecast and warnings were issued up to a week before and throughout the floods by the NWS. These efforts likely reduced the death toll, especially for a record-breaking event.
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The analysis also investigated the hot seas in the Gulf of Mexico that fed moisture to the storm. Overall, climate change made the high surface temperatures 1.2°C hotter and 14 times more likely.
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The region will get hit by even heavier downpours without a rapid switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy. If warming reaches 2.6°C, which is expected by 2100 under current policies, four-day spells of rainfall are expected to become a further 7% more intense and twice as likely.
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However, due to uncertainty in the climate models, this final result is likely an underestimate and the role of climate change could be as high as the weather data suggests.
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Historical weather data shows similar events have become 13-26% heavier and 2-5 times more likely.
We then analysed climate models to understand how much of the increase is due to climate change. This found climate change made the rainfall about 9% heavier and 1.4 times more likely.
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We found the four days of spring rainfall was the heaviest ever recorded for the region analysed. A combination of weather patterns, including the collision of two air masses, created a storm that stalled and subjected the Central Mississippi Valley to days of severe weather.
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The floods occurred after a powerful storm swept across the US. Heavy rain affected eight states, with Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas the worst affected. Floods killed at least 15 people, wrecked homes, swept away vehicles and caused huge power outages.
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The full study is available here ▶️ www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...
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For the full study ▶️ www.worldweatherattribution.org/high-vulnera...
📷MONUSCO/Aubin Mukoni
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Many homes are being built in flood-prone riverside areas and deforestation for construction reduces the ground's ability to absorb floodwaters.
Limited drainage and sewage systems, particularly around makeshift housing, means the city can experience floods even in moderate rains.
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Our study highlights how rapid population growth is increasing the risk of devastating flood impacts.
Kinshasa is a megacity, home to nearly 18 million people, and its population is expected to double over the next 20 years.
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In general, climate science has focused on extreme weather events in wealthy countries, meaning the changing risks of events in many African countries are not well understood.
Investment in climate science and weather stations in Africa is needed to help countries understand changing extremes.
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This is a challenge we frequently run into when studying heavy rainfall in Africa. We faced similar challenges when we tried to study a 2023 flood in eastern DRC.
Since 2014, seven of our studies have produced inconclusive results. Four of them focused on weather events in Africa.