My expectation (and lord knows I've been wrong before so this is worth what I'm charging you) is that the second Trump term will be about as successful and popular as the second Bush term.
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It could be much worse of course, and the nighmare scenario is that's considerably worse substantively but much more successful politically, which is absolutely a possibility. But all I'm saying is: I've seen a version of this movie before.
Well first they'll pardon the J6ers. Then he'll pardon himself. Then they'll outlaw abortion. All that is already worse than what they did before. And don't even get me started on the judges. Plus they have no intention of giving up power. And none of this should surprise us when it happens.
Well he doesn’t think he needs any pardon himself, I suppose. But the J6 thing probably, at least some high profile cases so he can parade them around.
His followers have forgotten how absurd his first term was, and they've idealized and elevated his image so much in the interim that they will be rudely shocked when he exposes his moronic tendencies again, except elevated this time, because he believes he has a mandate.
You were a young cub then and we tend to remember well those formative years. And I guess books came out of that.
Wonder what book is percolating through your mind atm
This is uncharted territory. Everyone's saying they'll be too disorganized to get anything done. Notice how no one is saying the Dems, SCOTUS or anyone else will stop them?
George W. Bush was considered practically invincible after his '04 win, and was no way, the pundits said, that he could fail. Yeah. That was spot-on. Sure. Definitely. /s/
SERIOUSLY lowballing badness. The movie you've seen was German-made. I'm ASTONISHED you're still speaking of a 4-year cycle. They're even now trying to dismantle the power of Congress and threatening to prosecute people doing lawful jobs. You think elections will be intact? That Bush is the model??
That is not how I remember it. Remember the poor woman talking about having to work three jobs to get by, and he effused over how it was "uniquely American"?
Except that Bush never reached the level of lawlessness of trump. He could not care less if he's "popular" or not. And neither does his organized crime syndicate.
The question is whether they will leave power if they are rejected, and the answer is probably not.
Also worth remembering that the media environment in 2004 was rancid. Any suggestion of being against the war was seen as deviant. And people learned ways to get their message out.
Oh I've seen this movie before too except in Lord of the Rings, Frodo threw the evil thing into the lava! We have here is he puts the ring on, walks out of the creepy place and straight to Saurun. Chaos, destruction and Orcs everywhere! Hope I'm wrong! 😜
I suspect this is apples and oranges. Bush was an incompetent conservative whose luck had run out. Trump is head of a criminal outfit that’s out to establish a dictatorship.
It would be bad in nearly every sense and bad for my home of Canada, but it would be so so so so fascinating to watch him cause a full-on economic crash... Him holding all the levers with no way to blame it on anyone...
The social media and manipulation of people now compared to Bush 2004 won't get people disappointed with Trump. Institutions were not dismantled in 2004 like they will be in 2025. Buckle up.
Allow me to simplify, it is going to be every bit as horrifying as feared, if not more, and it will leave a lasting impact on American lives for years after and not in a good way.
This is what I think it will be. Trump has shown that people will enthusiastically cut off their noses to spite their faces for him in a way that they wouldn't for someone like Bush, so they will keep accepting beating after beating to keep their dear leader afloat.
Well, I pretty much disagree. I remember Rachel had a segment on the mendacity of Bush. But while Bush, Rove and Rumsfeld were evil, nothing can hold a candle to Trump's caliper of evil. Bush was stupid evil, Trump is vile evil
War in Iraq, Medicare privatisation, try amending constitution preventing SSM from being legalized, Justice Alito being confirmed, Subprime mortgage crisis, Global economy crisis, Lehman brothers filed bankruptcy.
I wish I believed that but this is different. People won't see his culpability when their lives change for the worse. They're so entrenched in the lies which have been effectively repeated over and over- they refuse to believe anything that contradict their beliefs.
No you haven’t. The men behind that drooling narcissist have a serious plan, unlimited funds, and no legal restraints. Unless we fight really hard we’ll have a failed economy and no rights under a vicious autocracy.
I sure hope for shit Chris is right, but I'm more inclined to see this unravel like you @jeantifa to the point where, when the shit hits the fan, the truth gets so spun with the exponential increase of lies and media control, that just like 1940 Germany the 55% stay brainwashed.
100%. No one has seen this in the US before so no one knows how it’ll play out, but it ain’t looking good, given international and historical precedent.
It needs to be much worse. The GOP “governance” gets worse and worse until a Democratic administration is elected and fixes things. This time we need to let it get bad enough that their voters will start taking democracy seriously.
George W Bush never promised to dismantle our government, or to take control of the DoJ for a campaign of retribution against American that hurt his feelings… W was bad, this seems like it could be worse…
I genuinely think it will be relatively harmless as a whole, just super annoying. The people in place so far are much dumber and don’t understand how anything works.
His first cabinet was political vets with agendas, he was just too much of a moron for them to deal with effectively.
It remains to be seen what the kooks that he is hiring will accomplish. It is possible that they spin their wheels and lie about it, or it is possible that they do some serious damage.
I think “more successful politically” is almost a guarantee… I do not think it is possible for him to leave office with a sub-30% approval rating, no matter what.
I also think not as bad substantively is also a very live possibility.
Bush didn’t act with full immunity. He thought he could get in serious trouble for going too far. Trump has no limits. We have not seen this movie before.
Yes but...I dunno, the faith in the Dems and their established organization to be anything useful post Trump (whenever that will be) is gone. Evaporated. I mean, you called it with the title of your book. Whatever we create to repair ourselves has to be better and more grounded and responsive.
I pray to God that it doesn’t. I remember the number of people who suffered in 2007-2008 (or even in 2020). I just hope we avoid such catastrophe, in spite of who the President (elect) is.
The plan is to kickoff with so many unAmerican actions that normal folks won’t know how to oppose them. In the confusion, authoritarian rule will begin.
I think this 2nd term for Trump will be reminiscent to Nixon's last days in office... six months from now, say in June or July, nobody will actually admit to having voted for Trump.
Let’s remember Trump isn’t an ideologue; he’s a narcissist who values his own interest and loyalty. Project 2025 is useful to him now because they’re doing the heavy lifting and supported him. But if they enacted REALLY unpopular policies and he felt his base turning, he might jettison them.
The downside of that is, he doesn’t care. So the ideologues form Project 2025 who ARE running things might be able to wreck a bunch of things before Trump suffers political fallout, in which case, it’s a matter of how bad things get before he senses the hate he’ll receive for it.
he mostly delivered for the evangelicals and he has people advising him that were part of Project 2025 so I don't see him backing down from it ... the only hindrance are "the bros" but I don't see them being an effective opposition ..
Yeah, but they'll still making creeping gains that are hard to roll back.
Undoing the damage he's doing to the judiciary would, best case, take decades. And now he wants to gut the DoJ and replace career policemen with loyalists.
Yes that’s a really good point, I have heard that. But I think making a position such as DOGE would have to be approved by Congress, no? I know any budget cuts certainly would. And removing the department of Education. But you’re right, a lot of it can be done by EO, which is exhaustively depressing
He either dies by medical event, gets garroted on live TV by Vance, or he gets assassinated by someone in the military or someone whose family got deported.
Trump may have made a lot of hay over one legitimate assassination attempt by a disaffected 20 conservative, but he ain't seen nothing yet if he plans to actually go through with most of what he proposes.
This is why I hate seeing people still treat Trumps policy proposals as simply expensive of a cause for instability. They really think this ‘25 stuff isn’t really a goal or that he won’t be making defenestration a household word… he will and plans to
This is a man who routinely employed thugs to threaten people relating to his business dealings (ask Cohen) and may have even ordered the killing of that Antifa activist
I agree, but I would hardly limit the pool of aggrieved to military & deportees. To top it off, the 2 previous attempts prove he's got haters on the left AND the right.
If it's a med event I hope it's a stroke that leaves him speaking just like his mocking of that disabled journalist. (then dead)
He'll do everything bigger, though.
Bigger financial corruption and economic collapse, bigger human rights abuse, bigger authoritarian takeover, bigger lies, bigger abuse of prisoners, bigger rollback of women and minority rights, bigger infringement on 1st Amendment rights.
And that's Year 1.
I wish it was as banal as W’s 2nd term. Trump & Project 25 is going to do a lot of damage. Whomever follows Trump as president will have a hella cleanup to do; rehire all the fired administrators & government employees, have Congress re-confirm all the the Departments Trump is deleting. What a mess!
Our only saving grace is the cast of useful idiots he’s nominated for his cabinet. Hatred is the bond that ties them. They’ll be vying for Dear Leader’s love and admiration.
It's certainly off to a less than "covered in glory" start. More like prep for the GOT Red Wedding. How will they fit all those egos into the cabinet room?
And we have it partly due to the circular firing line that you and your colleagues participated in. Those ratings will be great as democracy slides further away.
All we had to do was show up and vote at least like we did in 2020 for an old white guy we weren’t all that excited about…but we just couldn’t pull our heads out of our arses. And a lot of those people are friends and family who said they’d vote for her…but didn’t. couldn’t. wouldn’t. MLK was right
If you are right, all of us working stuffs will not be poverty stricken and homeless by the time 2028 dawns. If we are then the Heritage Nazis will consider the new/old administration a success.
Bush imagined he had a mandate. He went on to squander his political capital by trying to privatize social security. No, I don't see any parallels at all with Trump.
He doesn’t have any “policies.” I don’t think he even knows what a policy is. He only knows how to spout the things he thinks his followers will agree with. At least Bush is a decent person.
I suspect it'll diminish Trump's popularity, but I also suspect it'll be even more damaging than we can currently imagine. And I've got a good imagination.
I am more afraid of this one- by far. He will have no one to stand in his way of doing whatever he wants to do. Controlling Congress and the Supreme Court, appointing people with no experience, experienced people leaving because of the chaos, and Elon Musk messing with the world…
It will be worse. Trump team starters are incompetent losers. They each will cause nasty chimney fires in their respective departments. Chimney fires start unseen but soon become a blowtorch that threatens to burn the house down. As in 2008, public protests and voters are the only quelching agents.
Many think this is going to end on 2028. Im afraid it wont. T might die but the ones around him will seize everything and it wont be any more elections ever. They are brazen and they convinced the white and uneducated that what Project 2025 is what America wants and need…
Permanently
One can only hope. And that a similar blue wave follows. My worry is the Biden has built too strong an economy for trump to utterly destroy in 3 and half years.
You’re probably right, but from Trump’s point of view it will be a huge success considering he’s gonna get twice as rich as his last term. He faced zero consequences last time and will face none this time, except now he KNOWS he will face zero consequences.
We have to mount some sort of counter-offensive for the 26 election. Flipping the house & Senate could make the final 2 years impeachment-tastic. But there will be so much destruction and actual death in the next 2 years.
In case you weren’t paying attention trump had one of the worst approval ratings and left death and destruction in his wake-he already is the worst US president EVER!
For the reason of discrediting him and his ideas. I absolutely agree. But for my long term job opportunities, I hope he doesn’t cause a complete collapse of the economy…
My worry is that the break in between (and the full sweep majority across all 3 branches) will allow them to come in and hit hard for 4 years, and he was pretty effective at instating GOP policy and rw goals last time.
I feel like Bush (or Obama, or any other modern pres really) somewhat fell off in the second term because they’re already in there, there’s less shakeup, lots of keeping the same characters as it were, and less show of power upfront. Trump gets to sorta start the process over fresh.
The term of the economic impacts dreadful as they are likely to be will be much longer term to see the actual impacts, especially for those that are not watching the canary in the coal mine monthly data as opposed to the more immediate social impacts of let's say, large scale deportations. 🤦
My hope for the country is that it’s somehow not that bad. My gut feeling is that it will be a massive power struggle as animosity grows internally with the WRM trying to pull too many strings.
I really hope so too, but if not, I've got nothing left to live for anyway, so might as well do as the founding fathers did and through a nice "get-together" in the forest for the boys, if yo catch my meaning.
Why? Because of the group he’s picked to execute his campaign promises to the MAGA faithful? That’s not the goal… it’s about success for their donors, not their voters. Different metrics.
@chrislhayes.bsky.social the reality is how you define success. Whether we have a democracy left, or not he will never have to face election again which is both a good and scary thought if they go full authoritarian.
But it will be spun as the most successful term ever, and the VAST majority of people will believe it. Ignoring the fact that their lives got measurably worse- as long as other people's lives got "worser" (for lack of a better term.)
As someone who served in the second Bush, I’m not going to let that slide. Regardless of what you thought of Bush, if you don’t recognize the category difference between the two, you’re just normalizing Trump. Be better.
the dismantling of federal consumer protections, environmental law, and labor rights alone will have a pretty hefty body count, even if they're only halfway successful
I still don't think people understand what's coming
It’s going to suck. We can only hope for a Hoover-level extinction event for the GOP so Democrats will have a generation to fix everything (and hopefully move everything forward).
The levers of power is how I’ve described it in the last week, as in they have all of them and there’s no guardrails. I keep telling people they’re going to ignore any court rulings that go against them.
It seems impossible to break through the complacency. Americans are so confidence our institutions can keep the combined WH, Congress, and the Supreme Court at bay, Mr. Trump and his gang can try their fanciful, incompetent policies, then we can vote them out, go on our merry way. Seems unlikely.
it's this complacency that makes me want to leave the country more than Trump's half-assed threats
If Trump dies, usually an authoritarian regime falls, but at this point GOP is just realizing what it's been wanting to say for 75 yrs and thought people would judge them
Yes, conservatives, Republicans seem intent on re-discovering bad ideas from the past: market utopianism, state religion, authoritarian government, racism, lawless plutocracy, artificial ignorance, and who knows how long we'll be on the Stupid Train to Nowhere before the next exit.
People say "oh he won't do that" or "he'll only do part of that." Well even part of all of those things, in conjunction with one another, is a death toll
Yes I think people get sick of the clown show very quickly plus the treat of losing valuelable things like Education and Health Care not to mention the mass deportations and foreign policy failures. This already feels like America jumped the shark.
It will be worse. Trump will create such havoc he’ll end up being EXTREMELY unpopular. MAGA will feel betrayed by his policies . The Tariffs and deportations will backfire spectacularly and who knows what else will turn out to be spectacularly unpopular .
Considering he was elected because prices were too high, and his two key policy proposals will raise prices, I think he's going to tank harder and faster than Bush 2.
I'm personally planning to give Trump credit where it's due, and pick the moments to jump up and down in apoplectic outrage very carefully such that it will help to sharpen focus on the most egregious matters
I just want us, as a nation, to come out of it as we did post Bush. If he dismantles our structures, as he promises, it will be generations before we come back to even recognizing the dream and promise of a more perfect union.
Chris, I respect you, but….are you being optimistic, naive, or just silly? We’ve never been up against a man who is creating a totalitarian government right before our eyes. That’s real different from Bush’s 2nd term.
My only hopes right now is John Thune pissing off Trump every chance he can and the whole administration implodes so hard they're to distracted outing each other's sins to really do anything.
I certainly hope you are right, but in the last 9 years only a very small handful of republicans have actually displayed character and patriotism for our country. I would be shocked if they actually stood up to him….no matter what he does.
Bush barreled in with his mandate message. He gussied it up with Texas swagger, “I’ve got political capital. I intend to spend it.” He rattled seniors with talk of privatization of SSI. Then Nancy Pelosi and a blue wave swept in 2006.
I just remember when Dubya got in in January of 2001, my Democratic-voting mother said, in answer to my dismay, "Oh, pish. What harm can he do in four years?"
She's long gone now, but I wonder what she'd say about the impending administration.
Or his first term. Remember we booted the bum out. And then our justice and judicial systems betrayed us. Too many loopholes, too many frivolous appeals, and horrible SCOTUS precedents.
I think you’re wrong. I’m fairly certain that Trump won’t even come close. 2025-2028 is going to make 2005-2008 pale in comparison to the shear level of shittyness.
I think this time around, his supporters live in an alternate reality thanks to conservative media and the distrust in traditional news/media that has been ingrained in them. I don't think they'll see and/or understand much of what goes wrong. They still believe tariffs are paid by foreign entities
You are wrong, unless you mean to say that the devolution will be equivalent to the devolution under Dubya. The first tRUmp firmly established tRUmp as the worst president we ever had, including https://x.com/POTUS_15 (not here yet). Some may have caused more damage, but treason is hard to beat.
When Kamala took over it felt like 2008. Election night felt like 2016…and now it feels like 2004. On the bright side 2006 was amazing! Didn’t we have 58 or 59 Democratic Senators?
Probably worse because now he knows how to really fuck shit up the first he didn’t know where the light switches were and we ended up with 1 mil dead, food lines, kids kidnapped at the border. His advise drink bleach and stick a UV light up your ass. Much worse this time around
What's am a zon to do with all the crap they get from china to sell cheaply? computers/apple and more, big Agra business (and labor), Huge corporations won't do well and we already know it. but it's not about that. It's meant to sew chaos and have ultimate power.
You’re too young to have lived through the Nixon crime spree. Neither you nor much of America is prepared for the amount of lawlessness in the Trump 2.0 years. In comparison Bush’s second term was a paragon of virtue.
Optimistic, are you? If all we have is a military quagmire and a global financial crisis but a real election in 2028, things won’t be as bad as it looks to be heading.
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Trump is none of those.
yeah we've seen exactly this act before (altho with *slightly* more competence i guess)
Wonder what book is percolating through your mind atm
This is uncharted territory. Everyone's saying they'll be too disorganized to get anything done. Notice how no one is saying the Dems, SCOTUS or anyone else will stop them?
With Trump it’s basically 3 or 4 raiding parties that will end up competing for the same resources.
The question is whether they will leave power if they are rejected, and the answer is probably not.
Omg, what would the cult do?🧐🤔
https://bsky.app/profile/conserveletters.bsky.social/post/3lb2y57ejv22f
I hope that whatever trump does actually sticks to him and all of the republicans who allowed this behavior get sunk with him.
Fly out the door
Doomed before it began
The last time, he was surrounded by inept family members.
This time? He’s surrounded by dangerous people with dangerous agendas
His first cabinet was political vets with agendas, he was just too much of a moron for them to deal with effectively.
And I am not confident I've seen a version of the movie that's coming up
And I mean that in a stronger sense than "you can't step into the same river"
Speaking of continuity and change in the polis >
https://books.google.com/books?id=Mi3oEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA4&source=kp_read_button&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&gboemv=1#v=onepage&q&f=false
I also think not as bad substantively is also a very live possibility.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/10/russell-vought-maga-2024-put-them-in-trauma-propublica/
who knows though, I could be wrong!
Undoing the damage he's doing to the judiciary would, best case, take decades. And now he wants to gut the DoJ and replace career policemen with loyalists.
Will he face pushback on that? I doubt it.
Any way you slice it, his presidency is a disaster.
He either dies by medical event, gets garroted on live TV by Vance, or he gets assassinated by someone in the military or someone whose family got deported.
If it's a med event I hope it's a stroke that leaves him speaking just like his mocking of that disabled journalist. (then dead)
esp. that 2nd guy. He was just pissed about Trump's stance on Ukraine. No idea what motivated that 1st guy, the PA kid.
Bigger financial corruption and economic collapse, bigger human rights abuse, bigger authoritarian takeover, bigger lies, bigger abuse of prisoners, bigger rollback of women and minority rights, bigger infringement on 1st Amendment rights.
And that's Year 1.
He would rather have a cast of famous people than truly qualified people who really have everyone's best interest at heart.
He has hobbies, he loves his families, he likes animals, he likes sports. Not the same.
I predict Trump will be less popular for most people.
Odds are it will be far worse.
They don't ever plan on conceding power ever again.
Wake up!
He attempted a coup, wants to put people in deportation camps, is putting sexual predators in his cabinet, and plans to destroy the economy.
Stop comparing it to anything else we’ve seen before in this country.
Permanently
But it will be spun as the most successful term ever, and the VAST majority of people will believe it. Ignoring the fact that their lives got measurably worse- as long as other people's lives got "worser" (for lack of a better term.)
I still don't think people understand what's coming
It’s almost like a cancer diagnosis and trying not to think about the chemotherapy and radiation that’s coming after surgery to remove the tumor.
It’s just too much.
The way the state lurched into enacting the Muslim ban in 2017 (mass harm, confusion, people going beyond written orders) is a primer.
Who’s going to enforce?
Immunity for official acts!
If Trump dies, usually an authoritarian regime falls, but at this point GOP is just realizing what it's been wanting to say for 75 yrs and thought people would judge them
It's like the anti-stonewall
I feel that the cultural nadir will be good for their self-awareness
going to be a hoot
bush's cabinet all still supported him, he had some actual substantive policies, he had lots of competent people around him advising him.
nah, this is gonna be wild, and extremely devastating.
I'll be surprised if he ever gets back up to bush's lowest approval ratings.
Unless you think voters will suddenly stop being dissatisfied when the tariffs hit Walmart, this is pretty obviously true.
Yes, there were two 20 yr wars.
Yes there was a global financial crisis.
But, Bush walked way quietly with American institutions largely what they would have been had any other generic republican been President.
Trump is far more dangerous and leveraged. Democracy survived Bush.
Strike that, I know you are.
She's long gone now, but I wonder what she'd say about the impending administration.
https://bsky.app/profile/sethabramson.bsky.social/post/3lbv3atrbas24
He will be Trump 2.Owe. The guardrails are gone.
Oh, and he ain’t leaving in 2028. The last election was the last one for a while.