have sinking feeling about the tariff stuff. i still don't really think US political system takes seriously what could very well be coming down the line this year
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Oh, it's not "could very well be coming." Shipments from China already have fallen to near zero. It takes a shipping container about 30 days to get from China to its ultimate destination in the U.S. So by mid- to late May, we're gonna be in a world of hurt. And it'll all be Trump's fault, MAGAts.
My senior senator is a Repub, and he's up for re-election in '26. I'm hoping the vengeance of the Lord smites him, at least electorally. ("Smite" is a good and underused word.)
The damage is done. The rest of the world is piss*d off and will trade around the US in the future. Everyone is working on it.
The Dollar is disgraced, the US branded unreliable and unreasonable. The consequences will show up on the shelves in less than a month.
This summer will be very tough.
I'm not even convinced these tariffs will be permanent tbh. Once Trump realises what a mess he's caused with them he might typically dump the whole idea, blame it on someone else & move on. Severing ties with the US presumptively would backfire on those who did so eventually 🤷
There's gonna be a lot of businesses shutting down.
And then a lot of bankruptcies, both strategic and not.
And then a large population of unemployed, unhappy, poor people.
Trump, is destroying America’s relationship with its allies while encouraging and empowering Putin. Both are working to replace our Constitutional Republic with a Fascist, Christian-Nationalist, White-Supremacist Kleptocracy. Is Trump a willing Traitor or is he submitting to Putin’s Compromat?
Tariffs will remain extremely high on China and the problem will not be fixed. I think he and Navarro probably intended something in the 20-50% range on China before the retaliatory fight, and we will probably get back there. But 20-50% will still be economically disastrous.
They definitely don’t. Some of these rallies have been short squeezes as well. Shorts having to cover positions m. When Wall Sat gets some of the real data over the next few months there will be another big panic drop.
The markets pretty clearly believe that nothing ever happens, and that this will all blow over and have just been PR. I think they are delusional, and they think I am delusional.
They're all hedging based on the residual hope/belief that this is all just negotiation tactics and that rates will massively go back down with trade deals. It hasn't sunk in that the damage is already done, we just haven't felt most of the pain yet
same, very same. I'm trying to figure out what I need to stock up on, not because of rising prices, but because of empty shelves/stores closed to prevent total customer "runs" or violence
It absolutely doesn't and at this point I'm talking about it with everyone close to me and feel like I'm an insane man shaking everyone who walked out onto the beach right after all the water receded way far out
What's coming this year: shortages, rising prices, businesses shuttered, unemployment skyrocketing, food riots, martial law. Throw in a natural disaster, an adventurous foreign adversary or another pandemic and there it all goes. There's no point worrying about that 401(k). Money becomes useless.
I’ve been using this lil uptick in the market to basically dump all of my US holdings. Getting out while the getting is good, going all in on foreign markets.
i think the hope is all trump's underlings (eg lutnick) have realized big tariff = bad and will just tell him they're making great deals and are getting amazing concessions in exchange for no tariff and he'll believe them
The tariffs are reasonably likely to fundamentally shatter the Republican coalition, similar to how conservative dominance from the 1870s fundamentally started breaking down once the great depression happened.
I don't think we will get a new great depression, but this will break his coalition.
I worry what coalitions will rise in its place though. The current Dem coalition taking on a bunch of social conservative economic populists doesn’t bode well for progress on LGBTQ rights, racial justice, etc.
Unusually enough, my prediction is that the coalition will become a lot more focused on fighting, and also a key point here is I do think the party will still be dominated by people who believe in social liberalism.
Once again, Republicans are taking climate action, in error though of course because they actually want to cause more global warming, by tanking the global economy. I'm hopeful that people in other countries don't suffer as much as do us Americans since we're the ones that chose to put GOP in power.
Not even politically. One of our bigger customers did their investor call and it was basically “the recession won’t be worse than COVID, and we were fine then” which:
1) it can def be worse
2) the feds aren’t giving away thousands of dollars this team to prop up demand, and shelves will be empty
also there's the fact that all these crises are cumulative, not independent. five years is not enough time for all the COVID economic strain to have healed fully. that debt-to-GDP spike is still there, inflation is still on everyone's minds, companies are still trying to recover.
Debt to GDP is only relevant as a boogeyman, it still hasn’t gotten to a point of actually influencing the economy until now, and that’s only because of specific choices made by Trump. Absent that, it’s still irrelevant.
I think the people will act, at that point. We will have NOTHING left by then. It’s clear no body of government, no politician, not SCOTUS is going to do shit. SCOTUS apparently can revoke his immunity. I’m not 100%, but I did it somewhere
That's because the markets are probably pricing in
a) the fact that none of this is sustainable and will be reversed, possibly in its entirety
b) the US dollar is weakening, so any company with overseas assets/exports should be getting more valuable - this is cushioning the impact
i don't think dollar weakness is a major factor especially given the substantially increased likelihood it will be much harder for US companies to do business in most of the world in 6-12 months, think the main driver is your point a
I think the volatility is a precursor to that—everyone is waiting for when everyone figures out exactly how bad it gets. (for short-term traders, it seems like you might get a very weird and unstable equilibrium there where “business as usual” holds until it doesn’t?)
speaking of which uh it's probably a sign we're about at that stage when BofA says "investors should get out of the market and dump the dollar right about now"
The people driving the market are the same people who decided Trump would be good for business— they can’t think anything else without having an existential crisis. It’s like the belief that derivatives had magically eliminated risk that was article of faith in 2007
This conversation made me look up what they're at because I presumed they bounced only a little from the bottom but SPY is already back up to 550, which is completely fucked. Pure delusion. Gives me time to shift my 401k though...
Put in cash until it's clearer where to go. Gets 5% or something right now, so that's better than bad. But I'm not an investment guy, I just read writing on walls.
I guess this is an option in some 401ks. Not sure if mine has it. Bonds at least would *probably* be better at this point, right? I already shifted mine more conservative from the pre packaged options in like February but tempted to go farther.
Not withdrawing, you sell and park on essentially a money market in your 401k/IRA/whatever tax advantaged account you're in until reinvesting. Never withdraw! Right now SPAXX is 5%. Well, maybe a little less now. But it's >0.
Neither does the business press. Their house is inside a tornado and they are making plans to sell more bikes to witches. The house falls on all of us.
Nothing. That’s what’s coming. No goods. Nothing to buy. No one buying your shit. America all alone. Canadians want NOTHING to do with US products. Europeans want NOTHING to do with US products. We’re teaming up to bypass the US altogether
I think probably 2-3 pts of GDP hit and way more economic malaise than the COVID decline and will likely feel much more impactful even though the raw GDP hit isn't that big
but what people should consider is, what if he can hold the line _after the recession starts._ what exactly is the brilliant plan if he refuses to lift the tariffs
-3% GDP and inflation at 10% or more (we could potentially see some pretty high numbers depending on unpredictable dynamics around hoarding and the US Dollar) would make the public freak the fuck out.
Right that's like in the middle but I think its abnormally distributed and all of the action is on the high side. I don't think its less than one (so clearly a recession) but I could see five or six depending on how it spirals
My biggest concern is that all our experience is based on a disruption to an otherwise functional economy. If anything, the US was a safe haven during those events. We don't really have a model for an across the board loss of trust and goodwill with the rest of the world.
.. followed by just the complexity of intentionally destroying key industries (e g. education, research, defense industrial, etc). such that those in them may not come back, and breaking key regulatory functions that will be hard to replace.
At what point do foreign holders decide it's better protect capital than bet on the come?
That's my nightmare... people cutting bait altogether and getting out of dollar assets. Doesn't matter how well capitalized the banks are at that point. QE can slow, but not arrest the fall.
The fact that there will be no clear end in sight, and no ways to el stimulus because our cost to borrow is going insanely high due to the current policies, means it’s going to feel incredibly terrible.
Grocery prices will be the primary issue for every congressperson by mid summer. Groceries are going up at least 50% (mid summer) putting them out of reach for millions of people living paycheck to paycheck. Restaurant’s will close. Millions will protest.
I’m afraid to eat bagged salad or milk that comes from anywhere but Costco already! Between the lack of food safety and the expense, who will need Ozempic?
It’s not a sinking feeling. It is likely what will happen. Walmart didn’t walk into the WH and threaten empty shelves for nothing. They know what isnt coming to their warehouses
Don't forget about the tech sector, which depends heavily on a complex global supply chain to exist, and was already facing serious challenges thanks to the AI bubble. Amazon and Microsoft have both shut down all new datacenter construction for their companies.
Add that shipping companies now are reluctant to release numbers further than the closest 3 weeks, its safe to say the numbers are REALLY bad, but they don't know HOW bad yet.
The US is headed for Covid level shortages in the supply chain, except back then it was the world.
Several of the largest container ship companies are cancelling entire service loops. (Thats a container ship route). They can afford to do this easier as tariffs arent hitting Asia-Europe) and that means they expect this to last a long time
It’s gonna hit his people especially bad. An acquaintance of mine, he is a toy collector, of course majority of toys are manufactured overseas. I keep telling him that many of his preorders may never be made/shipped.
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The Dollar is disgraced, the US branded unreliable and unreasonable. The consequences will show up on the shelves in less than a month.
This summer will be very tough.
And then a lot of bankruptcies, both strategic and not.
And then a large population of unemployed, unhappy, poor people.
That's...not a good thing.
The US depends more on the world, than the world depends on the US... FAFO is coming hard and swift.
If you voted for Trump, do your homework next time or stay home. You are messing up the group project for all of us.
🤷♂️
Next month will be brutal for truck drivers.
2 million layoffs coming
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/global-trends/us-recession-2-million-job-losses-larry-summers-warns-over-trumps-tariffs-as-global-trade-war-escalates/amp_articleshow/120131177.cms
I don't think we will get a new great depression, but this will break his coalition.
Especially in Congress which is the strongest of the three branches.
Social conservative economic populists are the definition of MAGA
(And this will describe quite a lot of first time MAGA voters/supporters, TBH).
It's a supply shock, just like reopening after COVID, but completely self inflicted.
Good luck not being able to grow crops as soon as you run out of affordable potash.
This month.
1) it can def be worse
2) the feds aren’t giving away thousands of dollars this team to prop up demand, and shelves will be empty
there's a faint awareness in some quarters that something bad is coming, but that's pretty much it
May the maggots suffer Bigly. 🖕
a) the fact that none of this is sustainable and will be reversed, possibly in its entirety
b) the US dollar is weakening, so any company with overseas assets/exports should be getting more valuable - this is cushioning the impact
“You know what solves it? When the economy crashes, when the economy goes to total hell and everything is a disaster,” Mr Trump said in 2014.
“Then you’ll have, you know, you’ll have riots to go back to where we were when we were great”.
Or what the catastrophic drop in tourism is gonna go
That's my nightmare... people cutting bait altogether and getting out of dollar assets. Doesn't matter how well capitalized the banks are at that point. QE can slow, but not arrest the fall.
Keep up the Boycotts, they work.
I've looked at shipping bookings.
Blank sailings from China to the US (cancelled container ship bookings) is at current now 25% for the coming three weeks.
Week 19 of 2020 (early stage Covid) saw a blank sailings rate of 24%.
🧵
https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3lnonqmx7ak2i
The US is headed for Covid level shortages in the supply chain, except back then it was the world.
This is just the US.
Time to impact:
Stores will feel this from mid-May.
/🧵
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5266321-china-cancels-us-pork-ships/
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/busiest-us-ports-see-big-drop-in-chinese-freight-vessel-traffic.html