avi-wa.bsky.social
Reading news into a microphone for WHYY, Philly's NPR station. Co-host of Studio 2, T-Th at noon. awolfmanarent at whyy dot org.
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yeah we're on the same page. i think he'll have to get humbled and then we'll see if he's ready to accept a career as a role player.
i really, really struggle to see the case for him as a star unless he's just a nuclear shooter.
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i'm VJ or Kon too. been talking myself more into VJ recently.
i keep trying to find an optimistic case for ace to believe in, but can't get there
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Which way r u leaning right now Trill?
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By that I don't mean he'll have the same strengths as Hart...just that he has the size and athleticism and ancillary skills that add value even if he's a non-shooter
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If that's what Ace really thinks (and it's not just a guy trying to spin his own college performance) his best case scenario is that the league humbles him for a few years and then he finds the light while on his second contract.
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in other words...i think there's a *huge* difference between a guy who's a tough shotmaker because he chooses to be and a guy who's a tough shotmaker because he can't create anything easier. i worry that Ace Bailey is the latter. and i don't think he's a good enough shooter to live in that world
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That's a fair point. In a lot of cases (though not all) the elite traits of elite recruits translate to the NBA eventually. My biggest issue with Ace -- just watching the highlights -- is how infrequently he seems to get where he wants to go. I imagine he'll add strength. But where's the quickness?
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😬😬
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That said...I'd love for someone to compare Bailey's shot profile to Edwards and Brown. The thing that worries me about Bailey is how infrequently he got into the paint. I'm guessing Edwards and Brown flashed more potential in that area.
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yeah. as a generally anti-Bailey guy...I do take comfort in the fact that it's pretty rare for teams to draft a player in the top 5 who was so inefficient in college. and when they do it's probably cuz the guy is an *elite* athlete.
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I think that says something about the power of scouting.
It's rare for teams to highly rate a guy who kinda stunk in his lone college season.
But when teams do...you often see why.
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But to argue in Ace Bailey's favor...
When you look at the guys who were inefficient in college, but still had high enough evaluations to go in the top 5, you end up with:
Anthony Edwards, Jaylen Brown, and Patrick Williams.
It's a much stronger group.
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Ziaire Williams (0.3)
Joshua Primo (3.7)
Jett Howard (5.2)
Cody Williams (3.9)
Bub Carrington (3.9)
Overall...you really see the boom-and-bust nature of picking a toolsy guy who didn't rate well in college.
Three All-Stars on this list...but also some of the biggest busts in recent draft history.
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Would also add Dirk
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Yeah I'm actually more toward VJ and Kon. But *if* you're operating under the assumption that the Embiid era is over and this is your one chance to get a potential future star...and you're looking for the guy most likely to get there...I'd consider Queen. He's such an unusual player.
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And Shaq
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it's replicable...if you completely tear it down to the studs and get the ammo to draft and develop a ton of wings (some of whom will not pan out).
or you can let the Nets tear it down to the studs for you.
either way...it takes a *lot* of assets.
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i think there's two viable paths. 1) The Boston+OKC path of wing-overload with switching across the roster. (Don't think the Sixers can ever get here without *truly* blowing it up.)
or
2) Get an unusual, special talent at any position and build around that guy while buffering his weaknesses
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Giannis is basically a big on offense who does wing stuff in transition. if you were looking for prototypical wings you'd never draft him (which probably explains why Otto Porter Jr went 10 spots ahead of him. (also KD wasn't on the most recent Steph team to win)
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if you're looking at best players on recent championship teams...it's a diverse bunch
Tatum, Jokic, Steph, Giannis, LeBron, Kawhi, Steph again
Maybe it trends a *little* toward wings. but not much
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if you're really going for upside...eventual-best-player-on-the team upside...I'm position agnostic.
If you want a more likely contributor, go for a wing.
If you are trying to find a guy who could lead the franchise...just go for pure talent and unusualness imo
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I guess Bailey theoretically has the higher floor because he's a wing and you could always just stick him in the corner on offense and let him sop up minutes.
But does a player like that change anything for the Sixers?
If you're taking a home run swing...swing big.
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Thanks for coming on the show, Guy!
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The haters are sick…From Green Bay to the South Pole
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But there are still glaring exceptions. Bagley and Ayton had awesome OPBMs in college. And the results in the NBA haven't matched that.
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he was insane in college...even compared to Flagg (16.3 BPM)
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for sure. also worth noting that some of the rim-running bigs rated highly in defensive BPM (which I trust a little less)...thus leading to their high, overall BPM.
Kon (6.9) and V.J. (7.1) both posted stellar offensive BPMs.
Their defense also rated well...but not as well.
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Two observations:
1.) Most of these guys are solid-to-excellent NBA players. But not all.
2.) The list leans heavily toward bigs. It's rare for a freshman guard or wing to rate this well on an all-in advanced metric like BPM.
We'll see what happens with Sheppard. Miller and Young are hits.
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Evan Mobley (13.7)
Onyeka Okongwu (11.6)
Zion Williamson (20.1)
Jaxson Hayes (10.1)
DeAndre Ayton (11.0)
Marvin Bagley (10.8)
Jaren Jackson Jr. (11.7)
*Trae Young (11.1)*
Mo Bamba (10.9)
Wendell Carter (11.4)
(2/2)
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yeah there could be more certainty around who's good and who's not. interesting point
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Wow that's interesting. Hadn't considered that ripple effect. Over time I suppose that will self-correct. Players have to graduate eventually.
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This piece has some good data:
www.theatlantic.com/economy/arch...
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The Please Touch Palace!
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i would also add that they have a cool name
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this is the cope i needed. thank you, Kevin!
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ok that's better
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In an online video, Stefanski describes Kevin and "Eddie" as cousins. Ed is Kevin's dad...so I'm guessing he's actual cousins with Ed Stefanski and some sort of cousin-uncle to Kevin. But I don't know for sure.