filo25.bsky.social
Center left NE Londoner, politics and Economics nerd. #LFC #NYGiants
118 posts
87 followers
1,315 following
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I mean there has been a retreat from globalisation for a while now, its not just a Republican phenomenon in the US, a lot of Dems are pro tariff "just not like this", Covid accelerated it as well, where people saw the risks of global supply chains, unfortunately that retreat brings more inflation.
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Oddly enough they actually polled a hypothetical Sunak v Corbyn at the last election, Labour polled similarly with Corbyn, Tories polled much stronger v him as Labour leader. was actually neck and neck.
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Its not even growing anymore to support some more speculative valuation
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Well he's not shy about talking up his credentials anyway, he has the natural ahem "confidence" of a former trader for sure
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The one thing I hate about using global trackers for my pension, is being forced to hold Tesla at this price!
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You can run a campaign that way though and then find your hands tied in a lot of ways on manifesto promises, which is kind of where we are now
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No easy answers on this one, it probably needs significant broad based tax rises to turn around public finances, that will be a clear breach of manifesto commitments and will get attacked from both left (magic wealth tax means this isn't needed) and right (its just being wasted)
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I think it also reflects the views of the general population, I imagine this was focus grouped to death and the leadership was generally not comfortable with their electoral prospects if they went out promising significant broad tax increases to invest in the functions of the state. And here we are
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I mean they are cutting through because they are selling politically easy answers to tough problems (we can improve the state and it won't cost you a penny), who doesn't love that! I guess less "right" in that international history doesn't tell a great story of wealth taxes raising what was promised
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Honestly its events as much as anything, the only easy economic solutions to the mess in public finances, is to clearly breach big manifesto promises, which they have been unwilling to do so far
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To be slightly fair here, people are saying that Trump shouldn't impose tariffs as they damage the US economy by increasing inflation and then say we 100% should do the same on US goods?🤔
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I imagine anyone who has met enough traders, knows a few Garys
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Was just over there on a work conference last week, we had a fair few travelling in from other countries and nobody had any issues. I do genuinely think its relatively rare.
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Agreed but I think there is a fair point here that for most people Britain is not a super high tax country, on earnings.
We should really look at property taxes, but that is politically challenging
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Because people have promised the world when introducing wealth taxes elsewhere, and they have generally raised a pittance compared to those promises.
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We didn't ever really have true wealth taxes as far as I'm aware, Norway has one and raises a bit although not an obscene amount by any stretch of the imagination, not aware of any large amounts raised in the other Scandinavian countries, although they do have higher tax rates generally.
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Well it's a politically easier way to claim you will do it anyway. From overseas experience it's not likely to raise anything like the sums claimed, but that never stops anyone claiming it can solve our fiscal woes.
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Sadly yes, either politically or economically challenging!
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I don't disagree, economically highly desirable, politically "challenging"
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Excellent piece from Gaby and sadly its unusual at present for being realistic that any tax rises will likely need to be broad based rather than just trumpeting a magic wealth tax as the solution to all our problems.
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Which other countries have actually managed to raise big sums from a wealth tax? I know plenty have tried
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How significant would the tax rises need to be to cover the gap? (I'm assuming significant additional borrowing would be challenging based on gilt yields)
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I'm not massively disagreeing with you here, but when people talk about 2m people with LC, I'm afraid that is what they are including. I don't really think they should be including them either!
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With all due respect though, that is still people with more severe long covid, which is far from all people when you see people talking about 2m with LC. I had a few months of moderate post viral symptoms, which slowly reduced and pretty much disappeared after about 6 months. That is pretty common
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2 things are true with regards to Long Covid, it is very real and pretty horrible for a lot of people, but also the numbers of people who permanently affected in a debilitating fashion seems to be somewhat overstated, some people do sadly have it for the very long term, others improve in months.
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2 things are true with regards to Long Covid, it is very real and pretty horrible for a lot of people, but also the numbers of people who permanently affected in a debilitating fashion seems to be somewhat overstated, some people do sadly have it for the very long term, others improve in months.
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The HE crisis has been brewing for a while, another one for which there are no easy answers
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But in the UK there is a problem of the left's making as well, they haven't actually really been willing to make the case for everyone paying more tax, instead promising that magic wealth taxes will solve everything. Populism comes in many forms.
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Is it though? Labour has also acted to improve employment rights, minimum wage has grown by more than inflation as well, that just gets somewhat lost amongst the noise. The worrying thing though is looking at polling for Spain where the govt seems to be delivering but not benefitting hugely
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Always liked them until they refused to honour a warranty claim as I bought a TV for my mum (explained at the time of purchase) but they said the address for the service callout was different to my payment details, so told me to do one!
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The gilt market isn't going to wear it, compare UK Gilt yields to German Bunds and you can see the problem.
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I can understand the reluctance as politically its going to be painful, breaching manifesto promises and they won't be able to hit Corporates again this time, its going to be individuals and its going to be broad based to raise the kind of sums needed
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You preferred pocket WiFi to eSim?
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Off there for the first time in a few months time as well, hugely looking forward to it!
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They only have bad choices though in many areas, I mean you can say they tied their hands on tax, but I am guessing that was focus grouped to death and they didn't think they had much choice to be pretty sure of getting a workable majority.
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I think the bond markets aren't indicating much enthusiasm for the UK breaking it's fiscal framework. Germany had a hell of a lot more flexibility
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I'm actually not, more that markets were more willing to tolerate money creation when inflation appeared dormant, than they are now.
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When inflation was tamed (seemingly forever!) there was a lot more appetite for printing whatever we wanted, not such a popular view these days!
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To be brutally honest significantly increased borrowing looks to be off the table given where gilt yields are
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I mean I know some people are trying to sell magical thinking on govt finances, but inflation is still hanging around and bond yields are at problematic levels, so I'm not sure there are many easy answers there apart from some unpleasant trade offs.
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I thought everyone had quietly decided to ignore that they ever supported MMT anyway after inflation made its unwelcome return.
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The main thing I have learnt from Murphy, is that people will believe any old guff if it conforms to what they want to hear. "You can live in the land of milk and honey and it won't cost you a penny, it'll all be paid for by MMT/Wealth tax/Santa Claus."
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Nato is basically dead but no real ability to reorganise it so I would say we need to build new security structures outside it. And the likes of Hungary should not be part of those structures
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Joining the EU isn't in our hands. Subject to veto by Putin aligned governments like Hungary
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Agreed, its kind of hiding in plain sight. The politicians that the MAGA crew love in Europe are largely the same people that Putin has been bankrolling over the years.