Profile avatar
maxbergmann.bsky.social
Director of the Europe, Russia, Eurasia Program at CSIS. Podcasts EuroFile and Russian Roulette. Fmr State Department official. DC sports, Tottenham
510 posts 9,235 followers 711 following
Prolific Poster
Conversation Starter

About an hour until parade start time in D.C., and there are plenty of prime viewing spots wide open, particularly toward the beginning of the route.

Thread!

John Hamre: Trump looks at Russia and China as the zoning commission of Atlantic City. He wants a bigger hotel. And he’s going to do what is needed, through threats and charm, to get it. He views allies as sub-contractors, whom he has always cheated and abused youtu.be/5_fkdsGuXv4

“Ribera’s team argues it is not possible to force member states to prioritise European goods through state-aid rules” What an admission of weakness and lack of creativity from the Commission. The basic implication then is to leave everything as is and “assess options”.

So there was a Deputies Committee meeting… in which the take away for DepSecState (who presumably is chairing these meetings b/c there’s no NSC) is that “NATO is still a solution in search of a problem.” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/12/u...

On the first episode of State of Play, @geopolitics.csis.org experts Victor Cha, @willtodman.bsky.social and @maxbergmann.bsky.social discuss what to expect from the G7 Summit in Canada and what needs to change to make the G7 relevant in the new geopolitical environment. Listen:

Reassurance!

"The G-7 faces a dilemma: it wants to play a larger role in global governance but is not currently well equipped for the part," write Dr. Victor Cha and Dr. John Hamre in Foreign Affairs. Read more on how global governance can survive:

Interesting article by @eucopresident.consilium.europa.eu, if mostly for the fact that the European Council President rarely writes op-eds. In terms of content, most notably is Costa's argument to put the EU's defence (industrial) efforts into alignment with the European pillar of NATO:

Europe FTW.

BYD brings EV price wars to small cars in Europe BYD has launched its cheapest and smallest EV in the UK, as it takes Chinese carmakers’ battle for affordability in Europe into a compact-car segment that has remained stubbornly reliant on the internal combustion engine on.ft.com/4ea9qDN

🚨🚨New podcast to follow!!! Great to be part of the inaugural episode of State of Play - a new pod from the @csis.org Geopolotics Department- with @victordcha.bsky.social and hosted by @willtodman.bsky.social!

I’m just fully realizing that the whole of downtown DC is being shutdown all weekend for a Trump birthday-commandeered ego parade that’s only going to be 8 blocks long. 8 blocks! $40 million+. Days of disruption. I honor the U.S. Army’s 250th … but this was not the way to do it.

It was great to sit down with @maxbergmann.bsky.social @csis.org and Neil Melvin @rusi.bsky.social to discuss transatlantic security after Trump's first 150 or so days.

The UK-Spain agreement on Gibraltar is diplomacy at its best: respecting both countries' legal red lines while delivering concrete, practical benefits for Gibraltarians and the many Spaniards who commute into the territory and contribute to its economy.

One common misperception is that clean tech is all about solar or wind and we’ve lost that so we’d better give up. Germany still has some of the latter. And if you look at the wider ecosystem - including machines, various turbines, parts for nuclear centrifuges - Germany is in far better shape.

Permitting for green power and grids is still ‘too bureaucratic, too slow’

Big deal this. For years I have heard continuous speculative chatter that Germany would turn back to Russian gas. European solidarity would break down, etc, etc. I thought it nonsense. There was no going back. And this ban on Nord Stream confirms that. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/10/w...

This is what every great catch makes you say but I really feel like this is maybe the best catch of this kind that I've ever seen.

60 days into Trump’s 90 day tariff reprieve, we have: - No Japan deal - No South Korea Deal - No EU deal - A UK deal that has not yet led to a lowering of tariffs - A tit-for-tat mess with China asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trad...

Sorry to see this. Ageing Italy especially needs to get better at integrating its migrant population, and a faster path to citizenship would have helped that. www.ft.com/content/434e...

👀

"Poland’s electorate remains sharply divided, and its branches of government will be too," writes @erep.csis.org on the results of Poland's recent election. Read more on the implications of Karol Nawrocki taking office:

Zelensky announced today that more than 20,000 American anti-drone missiles, which had been approved as aid for Ukraine by the Biden administration, were never delivered and instead, these missiles were sent to the Middle East. Trump is not delivering even what Congress has already approved!

In Russia, the number of working-age men who die is usually three times greater than the number of working-age women who die. Russia's war has changed this. Among those aged 20 to 35, the ratio is now 1:4-1:5.

On a new episode of Russian Roulette, @erep.csis.org experts @maxbergmann.bsky.social and @msnegova.bsky.social discuss the evolution of the Ukrainian economy since February 2022. Listen here:

Huge new report out for us on Russia's war economy from @msnegovaya.bsky.social, @nicholasfenton.bsky.social, Tina Dolbaia and me. Maria breaks down the conclusions, in short, Russia can sustain the war unfortunately.

Big addition to our program!

Where different BDA assessments seem to converge. Destroyed: 7 Tu-95MS, 4 Tu-22M3, 1 An-12. Damaged: 1 Tu-95MS, 2 Tu-22M3 , 2 A-50s (probably non-operational). Additionally attacked & possibly damaged: 4 Tu-22M3 (status unclear), and 1 Tu-95MS.

Couldn't agree more with this @adamtooze.bsky.social banger. "The scandal is not that European defence budgets have not already doubled. The scandal is that Europe spends so much and gets so little for it." The European defense enterprise is a total mess. www.ft.com/content/f450...

If the future is electric, China is building a big advantage quickly.

Post of the day.

BFD this.

NEW: @eribakova.bsky.social returned to Russian Roulette to discuss the evolution of the Ukrainian economy since February 2022. Tune in for her conversation with Max and Maria, below! 🎙️ @maxbergmann.bsky.social & @msnegovaya.bsky.social www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...

The Implications of Poland’s Presidential Election by our very own Donatienne Ruy www.csis.org/analysis/imp...

When folks say that the US is slow to build much-needed transmission lines to take advantage of new sources of very cheap renewable electricity, they do not exaggerate. In 2024 the US was completing 30-50 miles per month! All of it low voltage.

The smart thing to do would be to work on a NATO plan for a transfer of responsibility from the US to Europe. We risk getting fake spending targets to appease Trump instead and then a gap when the US withdraws forces.

The great irony is Euros are agreeing to these spending targets to appease Trump and keep America in. But by agreeing in principle to radically increase def spending (even though it’s all fake) it allows the US to walk away.