Lib Dem surge looking quite real: particularly tactical voting unpicking I suspect but also likely a real move. The rest strikes me as noise - ThreadSky

jamesdaustin.bsky.social • 3 days ago

Lib Dem surge looking quite real: particularly tactical voting unpicking I suspect but also likely a real move.

The rest strikes me as noise

Reposted from Luke Tryl

Our latest voting intention: small Reform dip, Tories slightly up & Labour at post election low, but biggest shift is Lib Dems hit 16% their highest from us

🌳 CON 25% (+2)
➡️ REF UK 24% (-2)
🌹 LAB 23% (-2)
🔶 LIB DEM 16% (+4)
🌍 GREEN 8% (+1)
🟡 SNP 3%(-)

N=2013 Dates: 21-24/2, Change w 14-18

Comments

climateguardian.bsky.social•3 days ago

Just imagine if the Lib Dem’s Greens and SotNats agreed to come came together to form a government before an election to change to PR?
A real democratic gamechanger

jonnyhibberd.bsky.social•3 days ago

The 'Yellow Tories' are picking up disaffected Conservative voters and this will happen more and more the deeper Badenoch digs them into the current Reform-lite hole

terryweldon.bsky.social•3 days ago

No evidence from the cross-tabs (More in Common or YouGov) that LD gains are mainly from disaffected Tories. Gains from Labour are more substantial.

CONs not going to Reform are more likely to be "don't know".

mcjamesz.bsky.social•3 days ago

Change from General Election 2024
Conservatives +1
Reform +10
Labour -11
Lib Dem +4
Green +2

If disaffected Tories are the reason Lib Dems are improving, how many disaffected Labour are turning to Reform & Conservatives?

toddforeman.bsky.social•3 days ago

The Lib-Dems will be extremely difficult to dislodge next time in the seats that they won in 2024 as their MPs will be working the seats hard and it will be clear what the tactical vote is in those seats. It will be interesting to see how many seats the Lib-Dems can gain.

casmilus.bsky.social•3 days ago

The church roofs will be extraordinary.

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

Yes - the Japanese knotweed analogy.

And it will be - tho their list of targets does look fairly constrained after the next 20 or so seats

toddforeman.bsky.social•3 days ago

I also think that the Greens can make gains beyond what a national swing would suggest. If they target carefully they should be well placed to get disillusioned Labour voters. It would help if Lib-Dems keep their activity down in Green target seats (and vice versa).

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

Potentially - though I think they'll start to run into their own issues with a lack of activists, efficent targeting (I suspect their best prospects aren't where they think they are) and that their support will become quite broad but thin and vulnerable to squeezing

toddforeman.bsky.social•3 days ago

I do think that the 2024 election result will prove to be ephemeral (as compared to say 2001 when very few seats changed hands from 1997 result). I expect the Labour vote to splinter all over the place and the Conservatives may not have hit rock bottom.

toddforeman.bsky.social•3 days ago

I agree that the list of realistic Green targets is still pretty limited. But look how hard they have been to shift once they get in (eg Brighton Pavillon). Some Bristol seats are low hanging fruit, seats in London where Greens were in second place will be tougher due to enormous swings still needed

susiegoh.bsky.social•3 days ago

The LibDems are
rational logical and fair.

ianrobo.bsky.social•3 days ago

So much can and will change that these are largely irrelevant to me unlike the Canadian ones which are fascinating now

psurridge.bsky.social•3 days ago

The churn underneath would be interesting. There could be some Reform -> Con and Con -> LD switching going on along side the tactical unravelling because a 'tactical' answer to vote intention makes no sense at this point

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

Yeah, that would be my feeling. Also would like to see how much of Lab -> DK is going on and how much switching we're seeing.

I'll have to dig out the tabs...

adamcain.bsky.social•3 days ago

Last time I saw anything credible on this there was a *lot* of Lab -> DK (and IIRC a bit of Lab -> Won't Vote).

So lots to play for at this stage of the cycle.

Would just be a bit cautious of the assumption that DKs will revert, which powered a lot of comment re the Tories running up to the GE.

adamcain.bsky.social•3 days ago

Sudden thought.

Given level of tactical voting in 2024 implied by efficiency of Labour, LD (especially) and Green Party (relatively) I'd expect a lot of DKs among tactical voters for all 3 of those parties, as those voters wait to assess the best tactical vote (or whether to vote tactically at all)

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

My suspicion is that it is a *very* complex picture

psurridge.bsky.social•3 days ago

My hunch is that over this parliament we're going to see unexpected shifts that are hard to pin down in the tabs because some of it is those who sat out 2024 but usually vote returning to voting.

ramshackle78.bsky.social•3 days ago

Have the locals/special so far given any indication of enthusiasm/turnout vs general?
I can see 2024 not being high stakes enough election for enough people to make it to voting both

psurridge.bsky.social•3 days ago

Locals will be a small test in May, but a smaller set and reduced by the postponement for devolution agenda so I'd say May 2026 locals + devolved parliaments is the first real test of enthusiasm. And that's still a long way off!

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

Yeah, exactly - the low turnout last time is going to make modelling very difficult. Particularly as I suspect we get a very high turnout election next time

jowilliams.bsky.social•3 days ago

It was so complex in July too. There was so much targetted campaigning that a lot of votes were effectively tactical by virtue of turnout at least. I've seen targetting before but actual sitting MPs spending the whole of election day in another seat? Incredible.

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

And it is....

ianrobo.bsky.social•3 days ago

Yeah I mean 7% of ld 24 vote reform now … protest votes

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

You can also clearly see why Lab view Reform as such a threat

psurridge.bsky.social•3 days ago

Really quite similar to the Yougov patterns

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

Yeah, we're getting a very clear pattern and I think it shows why Labour are so concerned about Reform.

joshgoddard98.bsky.social•3 days ago

Of course this is nothing new, but it's also notable how strongly the don't know group is split along gender lines. Again works to inflate the Reform vote which is very gendered

keanezero12.bsky.social•3 days ago

Davey has been playing a blinder tbf....

dsquareddigest.bsky.social•3 days ago

I'm not sure we can call it noise; enough polls like this have come out to be reasonably confident that the underlying averages are in the same ballpark. there's plenty of time for things to change but that's not the same as noise; this most likely is how people would vote in an election tomorrow.

bengbeng.bsky.social•3 days ago

I don't think this is how they would vote when faced with a serious choice. I think people are a bit more sensitive to context than that and therefore polls so close to the start of an electoral term are not meaningful as they track a different type of decision.

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

I was meaning more the +2/-2. Within margin of error and pretty much the pattern of the past few months of Lab/Con/Ref roughly level pegging.

While a outside MoE jump in the Lib Dem (and Green) vote has been seen in several polls now

colinelves.bsky.social•3 days ago

I think it’s risky to try and read voter flows from the headline numbers.

You could easily have chunks of Lab and Con voters shifting to Lib Dems in protest at their handling of things partially hidden by Reform voters heading to Lab & Con because of NG’s pro-Trump stance.

colinelves.bsky.social•3 days ago

Not saying you are trying to read voter flows.

I think I just worded it backwards above - I mean: I think the voter flows would be more revealing of what is happening, but those headline figures don’t reveal them.

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

I'm not trying to read voter flows yet - hence saying I think a lot of those changes are MoE - in general I think underlying polling is more useful at this point.

But there does seem to be a shift to LD recently.

colinelves.bsky.social•3 days ago

Yes, but substantial statistically significant flows can end up as changes within the MoE and hence looking like noise.

The addition of Reform makes everything weird and hard to read.

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

I'm also very much unconvinced this is how people will vote tomorrow

dsquareddigest.bsky.social•3 days ago

tbh I'm seeing a lot of this and it really feels like cope. Kemi Badenoch is doing an extremely bad job and is either just behind or just ahead of Labour in the polls, while Nigel Farage is ahead. We need two sets of load bearing tactical assumptions...

columnist.bsky.social•3 days ago

I quite like this take. I mean. We can safely say at this point in time that KB’s strategy isn’t succeeding from a polling perspective. But then neither is Starmer’s. Meanwhile, it looks like ED’s strategy is working.

columnist.bsky.social•3 days ago

I’m also very sceptical about reliance on tactical voting.

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

ED is certainly working, Kemi's certainly isn't, Starmer's... hard to say. The polling is awful but given the wider situation not terminal - particularly given their strategy.

given the situation I don't think Lab in the mid 20s is particularly suprising.

dsquareddigest.bsky.social•3 days ago

... one of which (that labour can depend on support from LD and G where it makes a difference) the government seems to be determined to undermine.

jamesdaustin.bsky.social•3 days ago

I think the two assumptions are fairly well backed up by both past behaviour and the underlying data around leadership/forced choices/party favourability we have.

That may unpick over the next few years (and I think Labour's strategy is slightly wrongheaded) but I'm not seeing evidence yet it will

garriecoleman.bsky.social•3 days ago

Parties need to keep jabbing the ‘Russia/Putin fanboys’ cut above the Reform UK eye at every opportunity.

hotlineaguirre.bsky.social•3 days ago

That and calling them Trumpists

dwaind.bsky.social•3 days ago

Encouraging that we have a good number of voters who enjoy defunding the countries, ejecting immigrants and general fascism. Whoopy. Not.

clrthrn.bsky.social•3 days ago

I think it's because as well as seeming like he has a fairly good beat on things, Ed Davey is just a nice bloke. I don't think I would like him as PM as Ed and Donald would be a shitshow but he would be an excellent leader of the opposition.

azery.bsky.social•3 days ago

Tbf by the time that happened, Trump would be out the White House anyways

clrthrn.bsky.social•3 days ago

Assuming Trump isn’t going to be there until he dies is not ridiculous sadly. I can see this turning from a presidency to a monarchy before long

williamjtlane.bsky.social•3 days ago

I broadly agree, the Lib Dem surge is the only change that is outside the margin of error. The rest is just the three way tussel in the early to mid 20s we've seen for the last few months.

butwhatifitsall.bsky.social•3 days ago

We are only 8 months into the first year of this Labour government, but already they have taken so many wrong turns that I predict mass defections from them at the next election. They seem to be going out of their way to alienate their core support. It’s baffling and dispiriting.

arcofprosperity.org•3 days ago

I agree. The question is where their core supporters will go in England. LD, Greens, Reform, Tory, couch?

butwhatifitsall.bsky.social•3 days ago

All of the above.

invalid-handle.com•3 days ago

And in efficiency of the vote and we’re back in good old post Brexit European 4 party politics aren’t we?

casmilus.bsky.social•3 days ago

Is there any chance of an actual split or at least open defections of Tory MPs to LD? Or were all those purged under Johnson anyway?

terryweldon.bsky.social•3 days ago

Definitely a chance. There are still some decet old style Tories still in parliament. If Tories keep chasing after extreme right wing nonsense they may well jump ship.

The challenge they face is they can't then count on an LD nomination at the next GE. Would have to accept life outside parliament.

casmilus.bsky.social•3 days ago

They need another interest. Maybe fixing the church roof?

invalid-handle.com•3 days ago

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Interesting to think about. I think there’s probably some unhappy with how things are going. But do they see their best chance as getting a new leader or defecting?

Post locals could be interesting but maybe we need to wait til closer to the next election?

worgztheowl.bsky.social•3 days ago

I suspect the clincher for the few that would consider it is whether they think will keep their seat. E.g. look for broadly moderate Tories with Home Counties seats, other than Jeremy Hunt who'd probably happily go off into the sunset if it doesn't work out.

invalid-handle.com•3 days ago

Absolutely. Self interest will out

casmilus.bsky.social•3 days ago

I've always expected Reform to dribble away to nothing, and soon lots of other people will be discovering they thought this as well.

sjpartridge.bsky.social•3 days ago

There are a handful still in parliament.

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