This is just immense. The scale of it, politically and economically, is kinda breathtaking. - ThreadSky

iandunt.bsky.social • 38 days ago

This is just immense. The scale of it, politically and economically, is kinda breathtaking.

CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy:

- defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake
- 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure
- looser debt rules for states
- further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag

Comments

ianlineham.bsky.social•37 days ago

Taking defense out if the figures for fiscal rules, deficits etc clearly something to think about, and should, with careful phrasing, allow more spend elsewhere as well

kesalisbury.bsky.social•38 days ago

This needed to happen, didn't it?

lemoustier.bsky.social•38 days ago

This past week really underlines the fact various orgs have made for some time, that the money is available if govts actually want to tackle the (equally existential) climate crisis

ratemypolicyuk.bsky.social•38 days ago

Starmer take note

mattjohnsonhtx.bsky.social•38 days ago

One side effect of the US's insane policies will be to drastically strengthen the EU, Britain, Canada, Mexico—which have a combined population of 690 million people, or twice that of the US. Why would they not form a coalition without the US?

comradecummings.bsky.social•38 days ago

Don't forget Australia, NZ, Taiwan, Japan and S Korea. They all have strong democratic credentials and won't want to fall prey to the US Russia axis or China. They are industrial power houses in their own rights. S Korea has a mighty armaments industry.

sarahbakewell.bsky.social•38 days ago

If I were South Korea I’d be getting seriously twitchy over US reliance

comradecummings.bsky.social•38 days ago

Definitely. And as for Taiwan...😬

sarahbakewell.bsky.social•38 days ago

Yep, countries at risk all over the world, Australasia seems the only safe place at the moment.
South America could be dangerous if that idiot in Argentina allies with Trump which no doubt he will

comradecummings.bsky.social•38 days ago

Yes, no doubt he will.

pbro.bsky.social•38 days ago

If only there had been a German party that promised a national infrastructure fund and a reform of the debt brake BEFORE the election, and not need make a u-turn on a beer mat. @gruene.de - looking at you. https://cms.gruene.de/uploads/assets/99x210_DieGruenen_BTW_Give-Aways_Flyer-8-seiter_digital_EN.pdf

mutleyboy.bsky.social•38 days ago

And if it 'sets the tone' for the rest of us, then things could get spicy very quickly. Can't imagine Macron wanting to be upstaged, for instance. See also Norway & their vast cash pile.

poohbearcorner.bsky.social•37 days ago

#Russia, #Ukraine, #Putin, #Trump

In #defence terms Germany, UK, France and Italy are crucial. Germany looks like it will make a step change. The issue is time. We need to accelerate arms & ammunition production FAST. We need to Trump-proof military coordination across Europe. Military recruitment?

kirky-12345.bsky.social•38 days ago

If only I understood what that meant 🤷‍♂️

ianrobo.bsky.social•38 days ago

a lot of cash into the German economy and by extension the EU

kirky-12345.bsky.social•38 days ago

Thanks. I suppose there may be a downside to that.

stuffasdreams.bsky.social•38 days ago

the downside is that the CDU has been pulling austerity measures for two decades and fucked up most of Germany's infrastructure, education and economy and they are now trying to somehow be the hero investing again. Massive change in strategy. I'll believe it when it happens.

pedter.bsky.social•38 days ago

The ambush in the oval office was horrid, but I'm glad it happened in the open. Now even the enthusiastically transatlantic Merz and the habitually unassertive Scholz have discarded all illusions about possibly making "deals" with that mafioso, and we're finally playing for keeps.

sed-vitae.bsky.social•38 days ago

A sleeping giant stirs, first time since 1945. Keep it on our side within a united democratic europe and stop the musk sponsored far right cabal gaining power there. Seismic shift?

jamesneill.bsky.social•38 days ago

Yes. But on the other hand they’re “only” proposing what they should have been doing whether Trump was smashing things up or not.

catiomiles.bsky.social•38 days ago

Cc Starmer

westmanajay.bsky.social•38 days ago

For Germans this is bordering on reckless credit card spending - let’s not under-estimate it!

korpivaara.bsky.social•38 days ago

The Schwäbische Hausfraue should be re-educating themselves. Will not be holding my breath though… huere siech.

zachelsbury.bsky.social•38 days ago

HMT should take note.

nvondarza.bsky.social•38 days ago

What do you think the reaction will be within the UK and Labour - with Starmer just cutting aid hard for a much smaller rise in defence spending whilst sticking with UK fiscal rules?

mehero.bsky.social•38 days ago

Presumably more difficult for Reeves because she doesn't have a long reputation for economic consistency behind her.

hewbass.bsky.social•37 days ago

She doesn't have a long history of anything in government behind her. She's got to start somewhere.

mehero.bsky.social•37 days ago

Yes, but maybe she should speak to people who think that there might be alternatives to making poor people poorer.

hewbass.bsky.social•37 days ago

Um. Yes. There is that point which is hard to argue with.

stevewotton.bsky.social•38 days ago

We have been here before with that wet lettuce, Scholtz. They need to see it through.

jmorris14.bsky.social•38 days ago

Scholz will be gone and his finance minister has led his own party out of parliament.

stephenbln.bsky.social•38 days ago

Scholz is currently still chancellor. His party, the SPD will be part of the next government. Scholz also wanted to change the debt cap, but the neoliberal FDP in the government wouldn't vote for it. They have now been kicked out of parliament.

stuffasdreams.bsky.social•38 days ago

Yes, thank god the FDP is gone. Maybe something good will come of this awful situation after all.

stevewotton.bsky.social•37 days ago

That makes no sense as he is planning to pass legislation in the outgoing Bundestag. Rather it is the CDU that has changed position. Regardless, he will need to get the Greens on board.

stevewotton.bsky.social•38 days ago

I know he is gone. But this is Deja vu, I really hope they actually deliver. Scholtz gave a rearmament speech three years ago then did absolutely nothing. As much use as a chocolate teapot that guy.

bardtk.bsky.social•38 days ago

Basically, they are saying: The military gets everything it wants. No upper limit.

cornucopist.bsky.social•38 days ago

There’s always a magic money tree. Choices

cmirar.bsky.social•37 days ago

📌

mickmuldoon.bsky.social•38 days ago

Is it enough to offset tariffs? Probably. We may see growth in Europe and deep recession in the US.

ziggysden.bsky.social•38 days ago

My guess is this is not what Trump was expecting. He expected Europe to roll over and acknowledge his superiority. Be careful what you wish for ya big orange baby!

ockamsrazor.bsky.social•38 days ago

Or it was Zelensky's strategy all the time.

He and Trump have history. He trusts Trump as much as he does Putin.

Trump is not putting anything meaningful on the table for access to Ukraine's minerals.

So, flush Trump & Vance out to get Europe to piss and get off the pot.

deborah122.bsky.social•38 days ago

I thought that I spotted a similar proposal about removing defence spending from the current way it is calculated, here in the UK a short while back. Just before Christmas? It does make sense because the rules are just socially constructed so can be changed.

davidlambert.bsky.social•38 days ago

Hurrah for German rearmament! I did not expect to find myself saying that this year...

nonnie.bsky.social•38 days ago

Yep

mandalee.bsky.social•38 days ago

Can the UK do something like this? If so, now would seem to be the time to do it

cloudyboy.bsky.social•38 days ago

Bravo.

brokenmarrow.bsky.social•38 days ago

How will this play out with the German electorate?

I imagine it'll be well received considering the threat from the east, but I don't have all the details...

robpountney.bsky.social•38 days ago

Quite well I would imagine, the recognition that there has been chronic underinvestment in the country for years seems widespread, the only party serious party advocating the retention of the debt brake (& felled the last government because of it) slipped well below the 5% margin for representation.

stuffasdreams.bsky.social•38 days ago

Saxony is still cutting 10% of it's admin spending (DOGE style, I assume), so things won't really change on a state level, especially in the eastern states *sigh* it will also not help those who have been neglected for so long and who vote AfD out of frustration.

jmorris14.bsky.social•38 days ago

I live in an Eastern State and these two parties have been governing in a minority government coalition since Sept. They had announced fairly brutal budget cuts. The AfD are on 32% here, 40% in the federal election. Austerity would have destroyed the SPD even more. Hopefully this is now reversed.

brokenmarrow.bsky.social•38 days ago

Appreciated - thanks!

rolandmcs.bsky.social•37 days ago

Today...

mikemcktfc.bsky.social•37 days ago

Might have to rethink my ‘never work in the defence industry’ stance.

robbyred.bsky.social•37 days ago

Makes our piddling 0.2 look like a sad joke

legwill.bsky.social•37 days ago

could we do the same?

philvonoppen.bsky.social•38 days ago

Germany basically borrowing Austria or the equivalent of the Austrian GDP. Or Norway. Or Greece and Hungary combined.

johnbroggio.bsky.social•38 days ago

Any reason why we shouldn't consider similar?

shane11.bsky.social•38 days ago

Any practical reason Labour can’t do the same? I know borrowing is such a damaged word thanks to Cameron’s austerity crew but really if Starmer came out and said we need to borrow a trillion to sort everything out, would anyone really kick off?

kuyvonbraun.bsky.social•38 days ago

Things are moving & quickly. Brits are going to have to get used to the new world that we find ourselves in.

Personally I think we’re already at war

shane11.bsky.social•38 days ago

Yeah there is definitely an air of that, Trumps America is totally unreliable we need to really keep them sweet as we can as we unbind ourselves from them.

Brave new world time

kuyvonbraun.bsky.social•38 days ago

10 years from now we might look back to now & see it as a blessing in disguise, who knows?

I just hope against hope that the USA can somehow oust the Orange One & return to us…I like the USA too much to think of them as the enemy!

kenem.bsky.social•37 days ago

US people are not the enemy - Trump is.
Same goes for many countries - most ordinary people want to get along with enough to get along.

deanteach.bsky.social•38 days ago

This is where the bully discovered that the bullied, united can fight back.
Trump and his gimp Vance have galvanised everyone against them.
MEEGA..Make Everyone Else Great Again

danmartin98.bsky.social•38 days ago

Can someone explain what this means and the implications like I’m 10 years old? Asking for a friend

lord-melbury.bsky.social•38 days ago

It's like the Dutch having two slices of cake

ockamsrazor.bsky.social•38 days ago

is the type of cake important?

poppingbubbles.bsky.social•38 days ago

Germany has changed it's famously tight controls on spending to spend on defence. Germany will spend enough to be a much more serious security player (it's defence capabilities having been a bit of a joke till now)

poppingbubbles.bsky.social•38 days ago

Has big implications for the way Germany controls it's economy and also for what it can do with a decent military.

migginsoldepieshop.bsky.social•38 days ago

Yes, but...with a growing far right in Germany, this might not end well (joke... hopefully).

poppingbubbles.bsky.social•38 days ago

Really important that each democracy makes similar investments in defence so that states which engage in democratic backsliding are no threat to the collective! I think the end of pax Americana is hopefully going to weaken European far right but who knows.

kennyfrederick.bsky.social•38 days ago

Thank you for explaining! Much appreciated!

randstranger.bsky.social•38 days ago

1) Germany has been underinvesting for years and all of Europe has suffered for it, now they seem to be set to invest massively

2) They are partially killing their insane debt brake. Should logically make it easier for other EU countries to invest more without Germany scolding them.

randstranger.bsky.social•38 days ago

3) They seem to be very, very serious about rearmament.

4) It seems both Merz and the SPD leadership understand they are facing some very big challenges and that incremental changes won't cut it

fluffymart.bsky.social•38 days ago

Thank you

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