5. Orbán might agree to this. If Georgescu wins in Romania, he might too. The EU is then dead in all but name. (I’m assuming that NATO has already passed away, dying on 19 February 2025, though the certificate won’t be issued for a while).
Comments
Log in with your Bluesky account to leave a comment
Related to this is that Europe needs to rapidly remove its dependency on US tech services. In the short term the risks are mostly of disruption due to instability within the US. In the medium to long term there's a high risk that these systems will be actively weaponised against us.
Unfortunately id say you’re 💯 correct. Trying to see the aspirations of Trump/Putin (+Orban etc) any other way just feels like blinkered optimism at this stage.
It would be almost comic. Orbán's whole political career was founded on him as the 'brave' political rebel, standing up in public and proclaiming 'Russians go home!' (after they had already decided to leave), back in '89.
NATO, in its current form is certainly severely-wounded. It could be revived under a future US President. However, NATO needs to reconfigure to a European defence pact, with perhaps Canadian support. There has to be a mutual defence pact in Europe; very unlikely there would be nothing.
6. European states (inc the UK) share intelligence with the US. This could now be the equivalent of sharing it with Putin. The US has multiple bases in our countries. The UK's nuclear weapons are dependent on the US for maintenance and prob more. If the US is our enemy, it's already inside the gates
All nukes nicely placed far away from London and next door to our largest city! Scotland is expendable😔
#ScottishIndependence #rejoinEU #bairnsnotbombs
Blimey, George, you do love an apocalypse. Yes, we need to be ultra vigilant and yes, we are operating under new rules, but also, Trump has so far been lots of bluster on Ukraine and very little action. This is often his trademark.
Not on Ukraine. It was the centre of the impeachment. The links between Trump and Putin are too many. He never criticises him. And now with the fulfilment of the Project 2025 manifesto, it's quite clear what Trump is there to do.
Believe me Simon, I don't. But some of us need to sketch out the worst scenarios in the hope that people start preparing for them, rather than just hoping for the best.
Yes, it has been his M.O., but consider the people he now is surrounded by, anarchists, nazis, and fascists that display delusions of grandeur, mental instability, and masochism. They weren't all in place before. They are all well financed now. and sustainable.
Surely with Tulsi Gabbards appointment the 5 eyes intelligence sharing must be under review in any case - the difficulty is replacing the lost US capability quickly
Worth pointing out that UK does not actually own the Trident missiles it uses. The D5 missiles are leased from the US. Royal Navy subs need to travel to US port to restock. Much else of Trident UK purchases from US. This means UK's 'independent' strategic nuclear force is entirely dependent on US.
I might be being naive but Steve Bannon always seemed a major player. He wants war and more importantly the spoils from the chaos it creates. A war against Europe is a natural pincer, but also a trade revenue stream. Is it more likely the US would turn on Putin because of the potential imbalance?
Yes, this is the biggest immediate threat. Russia is not in a state militarily to attack the rest of Europe, just now, and it will take time for them to rebuild. The intelligence-sharing is a big concern, though.
Ironically, one major reason for expanding NATO eastward was that some nations, newly liberated from behind the Iron Curtain, were thinking in the 1990s that they would need to create their own nuclear deterrents
It’s a total checkmate situation as far as I can see - if everyone turns on the US, Putin gets what he wants. If people persist with trying to bring Trump to heel, Putin will turn the screws on Trump
7. Is anyone ready for this? Plainly not. Is anyone gaming it? Aware of just what it means? Recognising that the shift is far more profound and consequential than ministers are admitting in public? I hope so. Does anyone have the faintest idea what to do? I doubt it.
The only recourse to any of this is if the international community starts acting like Trump isn't normal and speak out. And realising the danger he presents. But the EU and rest of the world has seen how absent rules and law are in light of how the US and Israel have treated the UN, ICC and ICJ.
Apparently latest information on avian flu is being withheld in the USA already, as seen on Planet America interview. With what the US has now walked away from on account of Trusk, it seems they've sowed long term diminishment from being leading global power.
This is so defeatist and melodramatic. The EU can and will fight IF it has to and it absolutely can win and the European economy is just as large as US. The EU is hardly dead and when push comes to shove you know the UK will always side with the EU.
The fact that no European leaders seem to have anticipated Trump doing exactly what he clearly signalled he was going to do is very telling. Perhaps they were so culturally conditioned to assume a bellicose US Republican would automatically be anti-Russia that they couldn't conceive the opposite.
Only a total and complete political destruction of Trump can force him out. Game the American economy to create the impetus on Congress and Seate to impeach the bastard.
I think they do know, George. But when in power, it's important to try as many options as possible and work out the impact of each on the people they are responsible for. We can sit on the sidelines and state the obvious but I'm bloody glad not to be the PM right now.!
George, I’m interested in how you reconcile the need for rearmament with the need to massively invest in eg sustainable energy, not to mention fixing public services. Politically as much as economically. Because of course we could raise the money thru wealth and inheritance taxes, but labours spin..
Will obviously be ‘you can’t have any nice things now, we need to spend all the money on bombs and recruiting your kids into the army’ (to put it crudely)
Please don't ask me to do everything. I'm just spelling out where I think this might be heading. If you want a budgeted manifesto, that would take longer, and require many minds.
Fair enough! I’m not trying to gotcha you, I just genuinely don’t know how we don’t go down a path of sacrificing everything in the altar of defence. Unless there is conflict which justified raising taxes, and led to a post-war reconstruction?
Britain needs to join the rest of Europe in reassessing - fast - its agricultural, industrial, social and energy needs and policies, not just its defence, for a world that is changing fast. And maybe include some other Mediterranean countries in that realignment.
8. In answer to some of the responses:
a. No, of course I don't want this to happen! Just the opposite, which is why I'm sketching out the potential danger.
b. No, I have no idea how *likely* it is. But I feel it would be deeply foolish not to consider it.
c. No, I don't have a plan.
The big lie or secret or whatever it is will be kept quiet like a pantomime. Trump is so cagey when asked about phone calls with Putin. You can be sure there is no intel being shared in all the perfect calls he is now having with nobody else on the line. Also, Musk has been in regular contact w/Ptn.
I would like to think that acting against the UK would be a line too far for a lot of serving US armed forces. But then, the Tango Twat and Ketamine Kid have been voted in. What has been worrying is how slow our collective reaction and action have been.
I think, quite honestly, that if this situation arose, it would be war. I also think other countries would become involved. If Trump threatened Europe with annihilation politically, there would be repercussions far deeper than Trump realises.
UK has been in US’s pocket for so long - impossible for the layman to know how hard it’d be to extricate ourselves from reliance on info, tech knowhow, hardware, etc.
How much control do they have of our nukes? Can they deactivate them?
Must be some interesting convos going on at Vauxhall Cross.
I think you're underestimating things. They don't upload full defence capabilities to Google. Nor is there any US (or UK) control of UK nukes. Captain's prerogative. More sobering than lethal pitchforks and paperclips are the biological and chemical warheads. Polite but an evil menace nonetheless.
I've been thinking about the Five Eyes intelligence sharing alliance (Canada, US, UK, Australia, New Zealand). I have no doubt intelligence folk are discussing how to protect assets from US at minimum and at maximum gaming political possibility of its collapse
My thought: I fear the same as you about our situation + I think everything (breaking the Russia-China and BRICS alliances, grabbing minerals, energy, and territories...) ultimately comes from an underlying US–China struggle for hegemony.
An idea: Just as COVID ended Trump1, there’s a high chance that ecological mega-events will mess Trump2. We could keep working (even theoretically) to prepare for what’s ahead. An eco-scientific (cum global common sense) revolution could become a way forward.
The British need a presence on the US military bases within the UK. They are presently run as little enclaves of the USA. I’ve no idea what the deal was that entrenched them here, so that might not even be possible. Same in other European nations. Talk about a fifth column!
Talk to China, and other v large US creditors. Get them to call the trillions of debt in. US economy tanks overnight, and there'll be regime change in the morning.
I think it's unlikely Trump will give direct military support to Russia. Even if he decapitates the US senior command it will still be too much for middle ranking officers. More likely it will be technical and intelligence support.
So you claim that he would be ready to bomb whole EU? ..like Israel did Gaza...?
And how US would hope to survive that? !
Even if, it would not bring it power over the whole World.
BRICS+ , remember. They watch and laugh at US shooting own feet!
Thanks George. Ultimately it all comes down to perception and I share your concerns of the potential risks.
You have stitched together the logic and what it might lead to. It can not and should not be discounted (as if the steps already taken 4 weeks in aren’t stark enough for people).
Underscoring all of this is how much closer we are to an uninhabitable Earth due to human caused climate breakdown.
Tipping points crossed resulting in massive food/water shortages at a time when we need(ed)global cooperation.
🌎 systems will not wait for us to figure this out…..
Ever heard of STORM 15-16, Russian bot farms using A1 intelligence to manipulate elections, just watched a Sky News report about it, going to use AI images in the German Election to get AfD neo Nazi group into power, using remigration like on Twitter
Good stuff 👏 FWIW, a) yes it is being gamed, in a 'rapid assessment' hurry by defence planners across non-US NATO desks, b) your analysis is spot on, and c) the probabilities are rising daily with new information. Yes, the level of alarm over potential joint US-Russia military actions is growing.
The most likely scenario at present is some kind of joint 'adventure', to strengthen the emerging entente, in the Arctic. More likely a demonstration of for domestic audiences rather than an 'invasion'. Maybe as early as late summer. Canada could be on the receiving end of the message.
I wonder if some expert here can elaborate on the idea of using Norway's sovereign wealth fund($222.4 billion) to fund a new EU defense system plus pull back all the EU funds in US markets like Denmark did with pension funds some time ago...
Yes, it's wise to consider it.
Also note that the US military is led by some canny folk, who swear allegiance to the Constitution, not the President, and know where to apply sand to gears.
(The founders foresaw someone like Trump)
But if the US did attack Europe probably the best bet would be to eliminate Trump if possible or threaten them with Nukes. But this will never happen imo. Let's not forget that there is a limit to what the Republicans will tolerate. This is well past the limit. So Trump would just get impeached.
Also there's no chance in hell Russia presents any military threat to NATO countries. Even if Russia had vast support from the US like in this scenario they simply do not have the capabilities to fight the EU and Even without the US military support it is very unlikely Russia will win in Ukraine.
I'm not an military expert but I think this is beyond extremely unlikely. But say the US did support Russia against Europe it still wouldn't be enough to be a threat against the European armies. But if it was no less that the US directly attacking then Europe would be in trouble.
My thoughts are that Trump and Putin will effectively be carving up the world as they see fit, China can do what they want (Taiwan). The damage may already be done and it's too far gone to stop.
The only idea I have to stop it involves that asteroid hitting the earth.
Don't think this is so much about expanding Russian territory (influence maybe).
Trump is making US weaker politically & militarily in the world.
This opens Europe to Russia influence & the South East to China.
Brics further decreases reliance on US.
It's a Trade War imo & one Russia is winning.
Yes I agree, it’s a very concerning prospect and it worries me that the UK might be even more vulnerable due to us being out of the EU? We also have a lot of keen Trump supporters here which could be troublesome.
There’s still a barrier to the US pulling out of NATO. 2/3 majority vote required — unlikely given the huge amount of money invested in red states by arms manufacturers.
Surely this has always been the major concern about Trump and Johnson. The failures seem to have been in journalistic scrutiny and paying fuller heed to warnings. John Major and Michael Heseltine have been key figures in highlighting the risks.
What the UK can do to stop America allying with Russia against Ukraine to undermine Europe is currently limited. But an opportunity has suddenly been forced upon Brits: An immediate, urgent, 'emergency situation' where the UK rejoins the EU. But I doubt the political will is there?
Your argument is based on Ukraine being 100% ceded to Russia which will not happen. Everything seems to be dependent on how much of their mineral wealth they will give away and to whom.
It seems totally implausible, but I have speculated that that thin-skinned, egotistical, Twitter-addicted bully must have seen how anglophone, European Twitter felt about him... and what if he’s driven by vindictiveness?
Personally, I'd hope there's enough sense in the US military to go against trump's madness and reject any moves he takes to do this. I can't see them taking kindly to being ordered to go to war with their long-term allies. But only time will tell.
#9. Some of the 'action now' I speak of in my reply to #7 is actually quite easy. But it just doesn't fit with the apparent direction of current/ongoing UK policy.
It starts with an ending of the 'special' relationship where the UK auto-aligns with everything the US government says and does.
The US has been planning to fight USSR/Russia for 80 years.
I suspect orders from Trump to join with Russia and attack in Europe might move the US military to action and regime change within the US, remembering their first loyalty is the defence of the Constitution, not the President.
While the administration is busy decapitating the US military, the mantra that Russia is the enemy is deeply ingrained. They would not take kindly to bolstering them.
Dear Georges, your analysis on climate crisis and the poisonous neo-conservatism/capitalism are really valuable. Unfortunately your views on russia and the Ukraine war seems misguided by UK-EU anti-russian propaganda. Please refer to Mersheimer's or the late Stephen Cohen inspirational analysis
It's been building for at least a couple of decades [when I first realised], that U.S would be the next "vs world" belligerent for WWIII.
Such arrogance, entitlement, ignorance and reliance on exploitation.
Trump is the symptom of very sick country and western ideology.
#8. Me too on a, b, and c, George. But we better get one, get one quick, and make sure it's a good one. Happily, this is one way to start putting a good plan together.
Yes 100% and when Macron & Starmer are developing a plan for possible security guarantees for 🇺🇦, and say it will depend on 🇺🇸 to provide aircraft and intelligence, they obviously haven't realised what has happened yet. We can't share intelligence with the US anymore, it's like sharing it with the BND
#7. The gulf between gaming and doing is vast. This'll sound funny to some, but there's a thing called status quo bias - and those who suffer from it like their personal situation as it is. But it could be horrendous for many. All of us, including them. And the planet. Action now is imperative.
How do we feel, given our leaders sucked up to him, supporting police harassment of residents and the destruction of rare SSI's, pretty peeved in my case. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-48789620
We know from the Harry Dunne case that the CIA operates "RAF" Croughton. "RAF" Menwith Hill is the UK home of the NSA. I'm no longer sure they are our allies any more.
#6. TrumpyMusk has turned the US 'leadership' into the enemy of the UK and much of the world. But I should be clear: the people of America are not the current US 'leadership'. Those standing up to their government are my natural friends. And, I suspect, the natural friends of many on Bluesky.
I think the often claimed 'US command' over the UK's nuclear deterrent has always lacked credibility beyond maintenance. It's designed to operate at the command of captain of the submarine. So it remains operational even in the event of Britain being annihilated. But let's close all open gates.
Overall I agree with everything you said except for one. I don't think our "allies" will share intelligence with us with a Russian agent in charge of National Intelligence.
Yes Trident though independently launched, is leased and has technical support from the USA. Maybe the UK can adopt French M51 SLBM’s. The intelligence issue is a huge problem as is military bases.
I read an interesting piece about Trump potentially using AUKUS as a new (obviously US controlled NATO equivalent). DARC and other projects under this agreement put us in bed with the devil. The UK government has already picked its side.
#5. Despite the seriousness, and I believe correct analysis, thanks, George - your '...certificate...' wording here has actually made me laugh. How have you done that in such a serious moment we all need to consider? Well done, sir.
Alternately, NATO becomes a European defence alliance overnight, following Trump's withdrawing of the US from NATO, which is highly likely given their reluctance to support international cooperation generally. Now Europe is being forced to invest in defence, beyond 5% of GDP, for its survival.
It sounds terrifying becuase it is. Whilst Europe invests in its defences, Trump and Putin need to be convinced Britain and France are prepared to use their nuclear deterrents to defend Europe. I know how terrible that would be, but these tyrants unchecked are already wilfully destroying the world.
Unfortunately, this is very far from an improbable scenario today. Europe, like any region of the world, any nation, has a right to defend itself from illegitimate attack by any means necessary. In reality, a Great Filter event due to psychopaths hijacking leadership roles for faux power and self.
These psychotics hijackers of civilisation express no leadership or even basic human qualities whatsoever. They're evil parasites. And they must be selected against whatever the costs. They must not be given the opportunity to cause more suffering than the end of the world.
Comments
#ScottishIndependence #rejoinEU #bairnsnotbombs
Bannon is a self declared anarchist
#ScottishIndependence #Endlondonrule #rejoinEU
https://www.persuasion.community/p/the-ultimate-betrayal
a. No, of course I don't want this to happen! Just the opposite, which is why I'm sketching out the potential danger.
b. No, I have no idea how *likely* it is. But I feel it would be deeply foolish not to consider it.
c. No, I don't have a plan.
How much control do they have of our nukes? Can they deactivate them?
Must be some interesting convos going on at Vauxhall Cross.
What's sauce for the goose...
See when the chart first turns red?
War generates heat
. . . . . V
And how US would hope to survive that? !
Even if, it would not bring it power over the whole World.
BRICS+ , remember. They watch and laugh at US shooting own feet!
You have stitched together the logic and what it might lead to. It can not and should not be discounted (as if the steps already taken 4 weeks in aren’t stark enough for people).
It would at least be some healthy exercise.
Tipping points crossed resulting in massive food/water shortages at a time when we need(ed)global cooperation.
🌎 systems will not wait for us to figure this out…..
Quicker doom
Also note that the US military is led by some canny folk, who swear allegiance to the Constitution, not the President, and know where to apply sand to gears.
(The founders foresaw someone like Trump)
The only idea I have to stop it involves that asteroid hitting the earth.
Trump is making US weaker politically & militarily in the world.
This opens Europe to Russia influence & the South East to China.
Brics further decreases reliance on US.
It's a Trade War imo & one Russia is winning.
Some say if Trump has a strategy it is to undermine the Russia/China approximation.
Putin needed an external enemy to quell domestic unrest, so a perpetual conflict serves his interests.
1/2
Energy security a huge worry, if 🇷🇺🇸🇦 & 🇺🇸 are against 🇪🇺.
Personally, I’d just like to start by repairing any rifts in my own life, there’s been too much X-driven divisiveness
It starts with an ending of the 'special' relationship where the UK auto-aligns with everything the US government says and does.
I suspect orders from Trump to join with Russia and attack in Europe might move the US military to action and regime change within the US, remembering their first loyalty is the defence of the Constitution, not the President.
On living through the whatever the next few decades bring, my thoughts are broadly the same for all the many crises: build community.
While the administration is busy decapitating the US military, the mantra that Russia is the enemy is deeply ingrained. They would not take kindly to bolstering them.
Trump worries about BRICS & it owning a trading currency that competes $ hegemony.
Europe is a pawn in a US/Ch ‘great game’.
Such arrogance, entitlement, ignorance and reliance on exploitation.
Trump is the symptom of very sick country and western ideology.