The Russian Ruble is in steep decline, losing another 3% just in a matter of hours. I guess that the Russian base interest rate will be increased soon above the current and high 21%, in order to slow down this development.
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I would agree. The Russian economy has been sustained by war but it won’t last. It appears the population that it reports is over estimated and they have a severe shortage of workers and people.
I agree, that’s my main thought about adding North Koreans soldiers, Russia is struggling to find a balance in economy development and keeping the war on.
I have been studying China and occasionally it involves Russia. The reported population of Russia is 144 million and with the losses it has incurred with the war, it should not have affected its workforce by that much. A Russian sociologist stated that their population maybe overestimated by
Private debt is the biggest problem as normal ruzzians will be squeezed out of their savings and credit capabilities to pay their second or third credit with rates going up while feeling the sting of the inflation. It’s a recipie for disaster!
Let's hope they hit a hyper-inflation crisis and the ruble completely collapses. But significantly tougher sanctions (including on CSTO member states for all duel-use goods) are probably still needed to bring the Russian economy to its knees.
Decline in price of oil (which is pretty much ONLY export ruzzian terrorists have) will eventually earn them NOTHING. Then ruble will REALLY be shot all to hell.
No amount of interest rate increase will be sufficient enough to slow the free fall of the rouble. The moscals have no foreign currency to be able to prop this up. She is going, going, gone!
Thank you, Mr. Putin... To paraphrase one of your shameful propagandists, I am now morally prepared to watch the collapse of Russia and the disintegration of the Russian Federation.
interesting, why did it suddenly went like this? Does it have to do smth with Ukraine allowed to strike targets in russia, or maybe with secondary sanctions not being enforced and imports from China growing rapifly as a tesult?
It has been coming for quite a while now. Check out the threads (here and on the darxite) by @prune602.bsky.social over the last year—on railway problems, state debt and the bond market, Moscow Exchange etc.
ruϞϞia is a giant house of cards. It takes time to collapse, but once the tumble start...
this youtuber shares the same sentiment. I would be interested to know what time-frames we are talking about for the economic collapse(not uprising of the population). Thats where the opinions diverge from months to years.
Russia's stagflation (recession plus inflation) has begun and the fast dropping value of the Russian currency is only but a taste of what's about to come.
This is a lovely and perfect reply. There should be a word for whatever the opposite of "vatnik" is so that I can call you that name before I followed you.
Putler's economic mirage hangin on by a thread. Sanctions finally catching up! I fear deplorable oligarchs will help other oligarchs to maintain status in the world at the sake of all of us! The rat race to Jan 20 is on! I am rooting for a collapse!
There is another war going on in the background. One which the russians do not have the smarts to imagine. There is a series of knock on effects as one thing fails it will lead to a cascade. The RF will not survive the economic war.
To put this in perspective for people who hated economics, this is quickly turning into the economic equivalent of Chernobyl. They’re putting the brakes all the way on, which stop all economic activity. Then individual economic sectors will be gin to crumble. We’re seeing it already in retail,
construction, real estate, and manufacturing. This will begin to spread to the rest of the economy, and the boom will be when $1 becomes worth $1bn rubles. Their currency is basically worthless.
I actually have my doubts.
21% already is ruinously high and it wont help imho.
General wisdom is, that higher interest rates make investments from the outside more attractive, rising demand for the currency and thus its price.
But nobody is investing and the ruble is barely traded anymore.
I always wondered which of the three pillars of the Russian war machine would collapse first. The political hierarchy, the economy or the Russian military. It's looking increasingly like the Russian economy will collapse first leading to the total collapse of the others.
#RussiaIsATerroristState committing a full-scale genocide in plain sight.
It is our duty towards Humanity to help 🇺🇦 win the war.
Whatever victory takes, right now 🔥
#SlavaUkraïni
🇱🇹🇩🇰🇵🇱🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇪🇺🇬🇧🇳🇴✊🇺🇦
I remember when, during a similar run on the Ruble, the Kremlin posted operatives to oversee FX traders on trading floors across Moscow. They averted a crisis through physical intimidation and they’ll do the same thing now
By the beginning of spring next year. Troops on the front line won’t be getting paid and they’ll hear about their family situations. I think you’ll see a lot of desertion.
This genocide began in the Ukrainian rubble and will end with the ruble.
In addition to military aid for Ukraine, maintaining and strengthening sanctions in 2025 against Russia is the best tool to extinguish Moscow's imperialist desires for several decades!
What the Russian state fails to understand is that it isn’t private lending and expenditure of funds that is causing their inflation (no need to raise interest rates), but instead insane government spending on the war. They cannot print money forever, it will be worthless before long.
Is it the fact that Russia has not been able to secure capital enough on the free market to keep the balance that has increased the pressure? Or is it more a tipping point? Interest rates getting too high for being capital to work?
Their interest rate will not influence the exchange rate since the Ruble is not trading freely. Is has been manipulated for 2,5 year already to fake a sense of stability. Watch the oil price. Every $1 it drops, will exponentially hit the Ruble.
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You should do another currency crisis post focused on Russia. How long can they last?!
ruϞϞia is a giant house of cards. It takes time to collapse, but once the tumble start...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKhrm_UfvJU
Ukraine doesn´t need to win militarily. Surviving for a year or two will be sufficient to win. And they can do it.
Russia has run out of ways to support the ruble and the economy.
This graph shows what the start of hyperinflation looks like.
See you later Russia
21% already is ruinously high and it wont help imho.
General wisdom is, that higher interest rates make investments from the outside more attractive, rising demand for the currency and thus its price.
But nobody is investing and the ruble is barely traded anymore.
Or so I was told.
#RussiaIsATerroristState committing a full-scale genocide in plain sight.
It is our duty towards Humanity to help 🇺🇦 win the war.
Whatever victory takes, right now 🔥
#SlavaUkraïni
🇱🇹🇩🇰🇵🇱🇫🇷🇩🇪🇮🇹🇪🇺🇬🇧🇳🇴✊🇺🇦
... and that could happen faster than many people think!
Interesting enough Russia still keep a ok supply line
Let's see how this winter plays
In addition to military aid for Ukraine, maintaining and strengthening sanctions in 2025 against Russia is the best tool to extinguish Moscow's imperialist desires for several decades!