Incidentally for those that think negotiating a customs union with the EU would be easy... you get that Brussels will likely demand freedom of movement as well? At which point UK politics melts down again...
Comments
Log in with your Bluesky account to leave a comment
Couple of things here - freedom of movement is one of the 4 freedoms of the single market. You can’t have one without the other 3.
Second the EU already offered a custom union type deal with Theresa May brexit deal that would protect NI as well.
I suppose some will point to Turkey's CU with the EU, but then it's worth pointing out how much alignment is required with the acquis communautaire on Turkey's part. It would not be a model for the UK, even if it were easy to negotiate, which is far from the case. Does Ed Davey have a cunning plan?
They might ask but there is no requirement for FOM in the Customs Union. You seem not to understand very much about the EU and to know nothing about the four freedoms.
Yes....polls indicate a majority think #brexshit was a mistake...
Polls also say...
Reform Party 25%
#ToryScum 25%
Neither of those want anything to do with the EU.
Except it appears from the news on the radio this morning that KB has already started the journey back by acknowledging the Tories made a mistake in leaving the EU without a plan.
No thing about reclaiming what was taken from us by Brexit will be easy. But we absolutely must take that path. Freedom of movement and the customs union? Yes please.
This argument forgets fundamental point. Near obsessive focus on nativist UK domestic politics (as if they are the centre of everything) completely ignores the bigger picture of the delicate *EU* position relative to 2016-2020. The EU faces a more toxic economic and geopolitical reality than before
If Labour (or anybody else) were to start a discussion about reversing Brexit, the entire of the might of the oligarchs, bad actors, media, and bot farms would be given one task: make this impossible by any means possible.
The population is fickle. We know that. Polls are unreliable, too.
We know that there will be a European realignment at some point, if we are to avoid bigger trouble with those to our East or West.
But the EU will want better terms. We will have a complex time rejoining.
But it ain't starting until our economy is in a better state on its own, for a start.
Don't get me wrong. My fury at Brexit was and is huge. Went to university in France, had a Alsatian partner for 14 years, speak a couple of European languages, and the EU was my home until we were all dragged out of it, based on lies.
We need to start planning but not strop at needing time.
The Tories will no doubt be the first to reverse ferret. They need a line away from the Reform LTD grifters.
They'll say it was a good idea but was done so badly because [insert BS], so needs to be undone to allow for business growth and better living, but with no EU control (which is impossible).
And people will vote for it because some won't realise it's a lie, some won't care and any vote to rejoin will do, and some will vote because the Express etc will claim we are going in to DICTATE to the EU how it MUST run now we're BACK!
Not forgetting initial negotiations by conservative May included FOM/CU because it solved so many problems like NI. Of course we know the ERG scuppered her and Johnson previously pro EU saw it as a way for his personal advancement without a clue as how his deal would work.
This is why I'm very cool on the whole 'reset' outside of the tonal shift and a public statement that a strong EU with a strong economy is in the UK national interest, which it is. The EU wants Brexit undone in all the ways Brexit disadvanatges EU nationals, which is understandable, but unworkable.
It's not at all clear why, in that now the UK electorate understand it's their own freedom of movement which is at stake, the polls suggest there is a majority in favour. There will be no economic benefit without stupid red lines being abandoned.
Meanwhile, when the same electorate thought it was only taking freedoms away from others, they were quite happy to support doing so. Which says something.
The question is, will the EU electorate, who heard, loud and clear, what the UK electorate said, be prepared to forgive?
All EU countries have the same kind of mendacious anti EU voices as the UK. I have seen no evidence that EU voters hold any grudge against the UK people.
I live in an EU country, and my friends and colleagues here express reservations about having the UK return.
"Perhaps in time", "after reforms", and "after an attitude change" are just a few examples of the kind of responses I get. Not so much a grudge, as legitimate concerns about UK's trajectory.
If the UK ever asks to start negotiations to rejoin it can only happen because there has been a sea change. That will be pretty obvious at the time. It cannot be done by a minority effort.
Well, no, since the EU wouldn't consider it until the support for joining comes from all major parties and a large majority of voters.
But to the people here, "taking the UK back" includes anything that goes beyond simple trade deals. Anything requiring trust and shared goals will be hard sells.
It's quite simple really. 27 countries pooled their sovereignty to give themselves a big stick in negotiations. We either join the club, or stay poor, our choice.
Okay..... So that means politicians have to tell the truth about FoM and how the UK government ALWAYS had the powers to legislate for any controls whilst being a member of the EU. Using, you know, our Sovereignty...
Depends on the opinions in the Council. Until they raise it as an ask, there is no way to know.
Rumours circulate that some governments do not at all want FoM to be extended to the UK, not too soon, for fear that Londongrad, London City or tax havens would be given unnecessary advantages.
It’s not that bothered about it. They have other cu’s and it doesn’t feature in association agreements. There’s non regression on immigration conditions in the UA one but nothing that goes further.
Almost no one thinks it will be easy. But we do think that, given that it is both essential and inevitable, people should focus on making it happen, however long that takes.
The only people that would go into meltdown would be the right wing media, Farage and extreme right Tories, freedom of movement in exchange for customs union / single market is a good deal for everyone and most voters would accept this
Why would the EU demand FoM for a customs union David? Turkey's customs union doesn't come with FoM, why would the EU demand that for a customs union with the UK?
Because there are EU countries who are desperate for their young workers to have a priority lane to go work in the UK jobs available, especially around the ages 18-25 where the UK simply has more job offers than in the EU.
I'm talking about specific EU countries that have an acute youth unemployment problem. And they demand to the EU that the UK allow youth work mobility programs.
One must remember that one of the governments that are the most eager to implement closer exchange of youths has a youth unemployment rate below 6 percent.
You're talking absolute rubbish. Plenty of European countries that can't find the workers they need. The EU countries are so "desperate" that it was the UK that approached some EU members lol.
they can't find workers in specific sectors, but they have plenty of unemployed youth (who speak often speak English rather than another second EU language) who used to go to UK because its a simple fact that the labour market there is more accessible at that age (min. wage, low entry requirement)
Funny how I have Polish and Bulgarian workers here who manage to speak Dutch but for the English another language is an insurmountable barrier. Hilarious, your feelings of self-importance when it was racist English who approached *some* EU members begging for a YMS.
You need to get over your hatred of the English or the UK (your feed is hilarious). 1. I'm not English 2. I don't necessarily agree with the reasons why there is more labour flexibility in the UK and why some EU countries are nostalgic of sending their unemployed youth there. I just answered ur q
It’s wise to assume that would be the case. EU are tired of us and they will want us to toe the line that 26 other countries have to abide by. And I don’t blame them.
Moreover. Why is FOM such a big deal? They’re 22 miles away. Move freely, save the economy.
Yeah but they said "retweet if you agree" that has to count for something right? Another reminder to wary of people promising easy answers to complex problems
The Turkey-EU customs deal is for industrial goods only. Turkey agrees to align its industrial goods tariffs with the EUs for goods imported to Turkey from NonEU countries. Turkish industrial goods still charged EU industrial tariffs to enter EU. Similar deal wouldn’t help the UK.
FoM is a great thing. It will solve so many of our problems. It will allow UK citizens to travel freely. It engenders circular immigration rather than the linear immigration that Brexit created.
As for politics...
It is almost like people think we can just rejoin on the old terms, that seems highly unlikely
I think you are correct, if we rejoin fully we should expect free movement and adopting the euro
The UK will not last that long as a political union. An independent Scotland will join the EU long before the UK can join. And both Scotland and a united Ireland will forever block England from joining.
Ironically, when Scotland and Northern Ireland are in the EU, they will take with them all of the fishing waters that were so important to the Brexiters.
Then serious politicians need to point out that we had much lower levels of immigration when we had freedom of movement and explain all the benefits of it that we would gain.
Would the typical Daily Mail reader notice?
Farage and co are already complaining about the type of Brexit we have, Labour might as well go for a Brexit that isn't quite as devastating as the current one.
Surely if the EU will insist on freedom of movement to get a customs union then we might as well just go for single market membership, which arguably would be better anyway.
I don't see how that would even be possible. FOM, in the true EU sense, depends upon a whole web of agreements re residence rights, right to work, professional qualifications, tax, pensions, healthcare, and many other things that make up the SM but are entirely outside the scope of a customs union.
Don't say anything is easy until you have a plan that outlines the proposed simplicity and also documents and registers the risks and the timeline involved.
For bonus points, the plan should have been scrutinised, reviewed and approved by the proposer's peers.
Some push back to my suggestion the EU would want freedom of movement in return for a Customs Union with the UK. Yes Turkey is different, but that's an old and partial arrangement for an accession country. Learn from Swiss negotiations - people movement is one of the key EU asks.
Switzerland is very special, as I know from once being married to a Swiss. Seriously, though, CH is part of Schengen, so the comparison is difficult. I'm not pushing back at you, but am hesitant to agree on the EU-will-require-free-movement given the circumstances. I just think the idea of a...
...bespoke customs union is a non-starter for reasons of its trade lopsidedness. It would be an incredibly tough sell domestically, and, given English public opinion tilting toward free movement, it may be better to argue for full Single Market integration with a view to joining the EU.
Turkey feels like such a zombie in this debate. A 30-year-old agreement with a very different economy and very different EU doesn't seem much of a guide for future UK options, beyond being an easy shorthand
is why i think the notion of "rejoining the customs union" (which in fairness Davey doesn't use) is fundamentally misleading; it would be a new and undefined arrangement rather than a reversion to the status quo ante
Surely it needs to be (yes, I'll offer this once again!) a bilateral comprehensive Association Agreement, with built-in Single Market and Customs Union? UK needs to stop woosing about on this.
But a) the Swiss don't have a customs union with the EU; b) the EU was willing to do a customs union with the UK without free movement of people in the Theresa May version of the withdrawal agreement.
I feel the EU see what they ask of Switzerland and UK has similarities, so it may not be / probably won't be full FoM but will be something - second I think is more relevant though some in the EU didn't like what was constructed there.
I seem to recall reports from a few years ago that the EU had hardened their approach in the Swiss negotiations precisely to make the point that the UK wasn't going to have an easy time of it during the Brexit negotiations. I might be remembering it wrong, but it makes sense as an approach.
You’re right, and indeed the Swiss largely caved and subject to referendums next year will sign a single agreement. I also do think Switz is a model for UK (including polite fudging on movement which is free not being free movement).
Sure but the point is whether the EU would demand it in return for a customs union, given a) they didn't in the context of the withdrawal agreement; b) there's no customs union with Switzerland
LibDems yesterday also started a youth mobility scheme bill - not to mention full SM & rejoin aspiration was in the manifesto. CU is a first step, it shouldn't be read as a final destination from LibDems! https://bsky.app/profile/libdems.org.uk/post/3lfsfizbg242i
But Switzerland doesn't have a CU with the EU. Agree that each side could decide to attach anything to a negotiation and EU very keen on FOM but I don't think they would attach that to a customs union deal.
I am not a trade expert but as far as I aware Switzerland is in the Single Market but not in a Custom Union with the EU. I think Switzerland hat also an FTA With China..
Although Swiss are not in CU (unfortunately - costs me a fortune every time I buy something from EU) and Swiss negotiations were about access to SM etc, right?
Seems reasonable to link FOM (which was part of existing Swiss agrmt anyway) with negotiation on SM. Maybe less so for UK/CU?
This story doesn't reflect well on what any political party is saying about UK trade. Still the search for the magic deals, the belief that we can be the great balance between every other country, the failure to recognise the realities of global trade or our position. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm29e0em72xo
Lib Dem members and activists are saying openly this is a prelude to a full Rejoin, offering the EU everything it could wish for.
.
Labour and Tories are still stuck in the C20.
But presumably the EU understands the current political state of the UK and would only demand freedom of movement as the price of a customs union if it really wasn't interested in a customs union.
No.
The 27 Heads of Government do not understand London at all.
They, at least some of them, had been visited by Labour emmisaries, Lammy and others, who appeared to give another impression than Labour has done once elected.
I feel no guilt to have provoked an argument on whether an EU Customs Union could require Freedom of Movement. Because it might, and to assume it doesn't is just the same old UK wishful thinking.
I am furious that this wasn’t met head on years ago before Brexit rules started to be implemented. And I blame Theresa May most of all for triggering Article 50 when she didn’t have to. We’re now so far down the line it’s going to take years to unpick
I'm completely fine with offering FoM dispite the fact that one or two crusty old drunks at the golf club with green skin with spit their false teeth out.
If we have already agreed FoM and a defence contract, EU Member States will look more favourably on our full accession.
Much simplified access to 60 million consumers?
Easy or difficult, surely negotiations can succeed if the political will is there and there are perceived benefits on both sides.
Anyone care to hazard a guess why the EU might be more interested in movement of people with the UK and Switzerland than Turkey and Ukraine...? Regardless of the formalities of what arrangement should involve what...
Labour wouldn't do it, but one option could be to show the public a graph showing high EU migration pre-Brexit and even higher migration from Africa/Asia post-Brexit and say, "Pick one?"
You may be right, but Switzerland is not in a customs union with the EU. Freedom of movement (of people) comes from all the other agreements bringing closer alignment with the EU.
Customs unions are only about goods trade. The UK would not have a say in setting tariff rates. Why even think of it?
The basic definition of a customs union is a common external tariff and perhaps common customs law, with duty free trade between the countries in the union. I don't see how that would require free movement of people
Although I’d like to be able to move stuff about too without having to account for VAT, tariffs or duty. It’s a real pain and adds so much wasteful cost.
Because its about finding a way of strong arming Labour into a more pro EU position. CU doesnt include FoM, and was even Labours position in 2017 and 2019 and therefore more likely to bear fruit than either full on rejoin or SM.
If Labour rejects even a CU then it shows them up to be the Brexit Party. In essence Davey is moving LDs to be to Labour what UKIP/BXP/Reform has been to the Tories, pushing their overton window.
There are many good reasons to reject a customs union without being Eurosceptic and without rejecting a much closer relationship with the EU. Just look at the European Economic Area and Switzerland
I think UK-EU negotiations are unnecessarily complicated because each side doesn’t invest enough time in understanding what they want out of the negotiation.
If UK Gov engaged with UK people they’d find the country might want what the EU wants anyway.
I'm not sure of the point of this type of commentary. Of course it's not easy, but clearly doable. It's a mutually beneficial agreement between countries, they're not being asked to unify physics.
We'd, hopefully, have intelligent and competent people in charge this time as well.
The arrogance of those that think Labour should reverse Brexit and the EU will just say “fine, come back in again.”
Apart from all the conditions EU will need to enforce to ensure their own people want this, they will also reasonably ask “why won’t you leave again if there’s a change of govt?”
This has old data but it gives a sense of Euro scepticism by country. My guess is these people won’t want U.K. to rejoin EU, Joe will they approve of their countries’ leaders welcoming U.K. back in. May even need referendums in countries to approve it.
A Customs Union makes much more sense. I guess it won’t come with freedom of movement, and nay tahr a long time to negotiate but it is better than nothing.
Do you think there would be huge opposition if we agreed to FOM? Yes, I know some people are fanatical about migration. But it's about our freedom of movement too. And one of the things people hate most about Brexit is that we can't come and go in Europe as we used to.
Serious as opposed to rhetorical question: would they? There is an EU - Turkey customs union but no freedom of movement. I see no chance of getting inside the EU’s customs union without membership though.
FoM isn't a problem in reality but it is sold as such and many people believe this nonsense as it is repeated endlessly by politicians and media. And let's face it, a lot of people are all in favour of FoM for themselves but as soon as they hear that it goes both ways it's apparently the devil's.
The narrative needs to change emphasising the benefits that FOM offers to UK citizens.
The subject of immigration needs to be separated from FOM.
RW media & those with a vested interest in isolating the UK to weaken it will of course resist & shout loudly.
But not the media who control the narrative. They’re obsessed with the views of that 16%. The BBC won’t touch it as they are scared of looking like a liberal elite - as Robert Peston wrote in his book WTF - that 2010 meeting has probably done the country more damage than any other single meeting.
We need it to melt down so we can move out of the fast setting concrete we are stuck in with Starmer’s moronic red lines. Brussels demanding something that would benefit the UK too and which the majority of people here desire is not a bad thing
Yes, true. In principle, good! The problem is how to promote freedom of movement among UK electorate. Override Lab’s red lines, we’re now in a different political universe, plus there’s support out there, esp. among the young.
Screw them. They need to stop trying to cling to power they don’t deserve, because they don’t serve US, Our politicians are flat out idiots and / or liars right now.
In ten days I've travelled from Sweden to Denmark, to Italy, then Germany, back to Denmark then home to Sweden, as a Brit passport holder with Article 50 status, residing in the EU pre Brexit, I still enjoy freedom of movement, not showing my passport at any borders is a privilege I still enjoy
Comments
They already know the answer
Second the EU already offered a custom union type deal with Theresa May brexit deal that would protect NI as well.
Polls also say...
Reform Party 25%
#ToryScum 25%
Neither of those want anything to do with the EU.
Now square that circle.
I think some of them would like to team up with RN and AfD.
Mistakes in not being ready is my understanding of where she's going... not acknowledging we need to go back in.
The population is fickle. We know that. Polls are unreliable, too.
But the EU will want better terms. We will have a complex time rejoining.
But it ain't starting until our economy is in a better state on its own, for a start.
We need to start planning but not strop at needing time.
There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking on the rejoin side (of which I’m supportive)
As you say the UK media complex would crush the fickle polling in favour over night.
The EU would have little desire to admit a recalcitrant UK
They now believe Tories are reversing🤷♂️
They'll say it was a good idea but was done so badly because [insert BS], so needs to be undone to allow for business growth and better living, but with no EU control (which is impossible).
Aren’t there laws against that?
(Runs away)
The question is, will the EU electorate, who heard, loud and clear, what the UK electorate said, be prepared to forgive?
Worth considering.
"Perhaps in time", "after reforms", and "after an attitude change" are just a few examples of the kind of responses I get. Not so much a grudge, as legitimate concerns about UK's trajectory.
But to the people here, "taking the UK back" includes anything that goes beyond simple trade deals. Anything requiring trust and shared goals will be hard sells.
Rumours circulate that some governments do not at all want FoM to be extended to the UK, not too soon, for fear that Londongrad, London City or tax havens would be given unnecessary advantages.
But isn’t SM more beneficial than a CU?
UK youth unemplotment rate 13.9%
Moreover. Why is FOM such a big deal? They’re 22 miles away. Move freely, save the economy.
Oh yeah. Farage.
I think the UK probably still has a long way to go to build the trust necessary for any step forward though.
I hope, though, there can be at least one step on the long road back to unity again.
Maybe Erdogan burnt that bridge?
Damn, because that would be possible in current UK national mess, whereas my desired option with FoM is likely to be a non starter as you say.
FoM is one of the 4 pillars of the Single Market. This is common knowledge.
Who ever offers that in an election gets my vote.
#RejoinEU #BrexitBrokeBritain
As for politics...
I think you are correct, if we rejoin fully we should expect free movement and adopting the euro
Switzerland, located in the very centre of The EU is obviously a different case.
It’s about the EU and their voters, enough of whom don’t want this that they are a factor in national elections.
I don’t see us rejoining until my recently graduated nieces are retired. Perhaps we might join the CU/SM in 20 years time.
It smells faintly of peat and heather or something.
The political landscape on UK/EU is shifting slowly towards EU and probably accelerate with Trump.
BadEnoch already criticising CON lack of plan after Brexit, begging the question what should that have been.
The answer to the question is of course CU and FoM.
Farage and co are already complaining about the type of Brexit we have, Labour might as well go for a Brexit that isn't quite as devastating as the current one.
Applies to the EU and US equally.
For bonus points, the plan should have been scrutinised, reviewed and approved by the proposer's peers.
& that's before ppl understand what the EU's CCP is
https://bsky.app/profile/libdems.org.uk/post/3lfsfizbg242i
Seems reasonable to link FOM (which was part of existing Swiss agrmt anyway) with negotiation on SM. Maybe less so for UK/CU?
.
Labour and Tories are still stuck in the C20.
The 27 Heads of Government do not understand London at all.
They, at least some of them, had been visited by Labour emmisaries, Lammy and others, who appeared to give another impression than Labour has done once elected.
As before... what are we offering?
If we have already agreed FoM and a defence contract, EU Member States will look more favourably on our full accession.
Easy or difficult, surely negotiations can succeed if the political will is there and there are perceived benefits on both sides.
Customs unions are only about goods trade. The UK would not have a say in setting tariff rates. Why even think of it?
The basic definition of a customs union is a common external tariff and perhaps common customs law, with duty free trade between the countries in the union. I don't see how that would require free movement of people
1/2
https://trade.ec.europa.eu/access-to-markets/en/content/customs-unions
Most of the other stuff can be negotiated in an FTA, including alignment and recognition of standards, competition policy, intellectual property etc.
And its GOODS. No one has tariffs on services
2/2
Although I’d like to be able to move stuff about too without having to account for VAT, tariffs or duty. It’s a real pain and adds so much wasteful cost.
If UK Gov engaged with UK people they’d find the country might want what the EU wants anyway.
Same with EU asking EU27 what they want.
We'd, hopefully, have intelligent and competent people in charge this time as well.
Apart from all the conditions EU will need to enforce to ensure their own people want this, they will also reasonably ask “why won’t you leave again if there’s a change of govt?”
This has old data but it gives a sense of Euro scepticism by country. My guess is these people won’t want U.K. to rejoin EU, Joe will they approve of their countries’ leaders welcoming U.K. back in. May even need referendums in countries to approve it.
Why? See Turkey. I'm sure EU would *want* it, but whether the EU would demand it is a matter of politics not fact.
In any case *just* FoM would be new EU policy, so unlikely to be demanded, more likely to want/demand UK in SM.
Freedom of Movement of people is not a problem.
You know that 84% of the public support it, don’t you.
It’s exactly what people want.
The subject of immigration needs to be separated from FOM.
RW media & those with a vested interest in isolating the UK to weaken it will of course resist & shout loudly.
Only Dominic Cummins thinks they do. 80m Turks heading for the UK unless we leave