When dealing with pseudoscience, the devil is in the detail - in this case, narrowing down a specific "Lab Leak" hypothesis. In Dr. Chan's @nytimes.com OpEd there is, however, a very specific hypothesis for COVID-19 origin. It's a prime example of conspiracism vs empiricism, so let's dive in. 🧵 - ThreadSky

kgandersen.bsky.social • 262 days ago

When dealing with pseudoscience, the devil is in the detail - in this case, narrowing down a specific "Lab Leak" hypothesis.

In Dr. Chan's @nytimes.com OpEd there is, however, a very specific hypothesis for COVID-19 origin.

It's a prime example of conspiracism vs empiricism, so let's dive in.

🧵

Reposted from Kristian G. Andersen

On the day of Dr. Fauci's testimony, @nytimes.com decides to run a deeply unethical OpEd with snazzy graphics and snappy headlines about the Lab Leak.

The article itself contains multiple falsehoods and deep mischaracterizations.

Let's take every point in turn 👇🧵

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Comments

casapazzo.bsky.social•258 days ago

📌

steenyswank.bsky.social•262 days ago

So clear and informative. It's awful that time and energy must be wasted defending Drs Fauci and now Hotez. But mightily defended they must be.

foxityfox.bsky.social•261 days ago

📌

halophore.bsky.social•262 days ago

For lab leak the virus has to appear at WIV between ~1 Sept and ~30 Nov, a window of ~70 work days (assuming Chinese grad students work weekends). This is way too short for engineering, is there lit* that would preclude an origin w/ a wild animal carrying COVID brought to the lab during that time

halophore.bsky.social•262 days ago

* = excepting the analysis from Proximal Origins

bjjanssen.bsky.social•258 days ago

The thing for me is "why believe in a lab leak"
If it's a lab leak you can blame someone and close down the lab and you're done

But if it's zoonotic transmission you have to change food systems, encroachment on wild spaces, constantly monitor etc etc etc

So believing a lab leak is the easy option

kgandersen.bsky.social•258 days ago

Indeed. We also have a tendency to believe that big (in this case, historical) events must have big causes (proportionality bias).

That is not the case because, well, shit happens, and in this case, a mundane zoonosis - this time, though, with huge consequences, which, luckily, is rare.

grandmastershah.bsky.social•262 days ago

I am so sick of NYT op eds on everything.

mabehr.bsky.social•252 days ago

The lab leak theory started as misinformation very early on, blaming the “Chinese CDC” and pointing to a specific location within a few minute walking distance of the wet market.

The only problem is that the Chinese CDC isn’t a lab and the office didn’t actually exist.

mabehr.bsky.social•252 days ago

More info here: https://bsky.app/profile/mabehr.bsky.social/post/3k26hvt2dod2q

kgandersen.bsky.social•262 days ago

If you read through the whole Opinion piece, Dr. Chan makes several specific claims, all of which would simultaneously have to be true for a Lab Leak to be a viable hypothesis.

I will go through these in details below, but let's first list them:

kgandersen.bsky.social•262 days ago

1️⃣ The Wuhan Institute of Virology is the origin of the pandemic.
2️⃣ SARS-CoV-2 was at the WIV prior to the pandemic (it can't leak from a lab if it's not in the lab).
3️⃣ Dr. Zhengli Shi is the accused and is lying about it.
4️⃣ The virus was engineered.
5️⃣ WIV workers got infected/sick.

kgandersen.bsky.social•262 days ago

6️⃣ The virus escaped the lab, but early cases and hospitalizations were linked to a wet market.
7️⃣ The WIV covered up an early outbreak and has been covering it up ever since.

All of these form a hypothesis Dr. Chan is putting forward in her piece.

So let's take a look at the components in turn.

kgandersen.bsky.social•262 days ago

Below, I will use the structure of her article so it is easier to follow. I will take each point and then compare that to what we actually know to be facts or specific conclusions informed by available evidence.

kgandersen.bsky.social•262 days ago

1️⃣ The Wuhan Institute of Virology is the origin of the pandemic.
2️⃣ SARS-CoV-2 was at the WIV prior to the pandemic.
3️⃣ Dr. Zhengli Shi is the accused.

kgandersen.bsky.social•262 days ago

So this is rather specific. The WIV is the origin of the pandemic and hence the virus must have been in their holdings prior to the pandemic.

A specific scientist - Dr. Shi is also being accused of being the person responsible.

The problem is, we have no evidence of any of this being true.

mdaware.org•262 days ago

📌

habaner0.bsky.social•262 days ago

I am going to skip past your exposé which was done nicely, and get to the point that there is still a pointed attack *because* it’s China. The amount of Sinophobia in these “lab” arguments is not hidden or acceptable in any manner. Yes, science speaks loud. But let’s not pretend there ain’t racism.

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