I don't think Trump withdrawal from NATO is likely at this stage, but there is a very real risk that Trump blames Ukraine & Europe for a failure of diplomacy. Avoids needs to apply pressure to Russia, aids normalisation w/ Russia, allows him to abandon Ukraine with 'less blame' for consequences. - ThreadSky

shashj.bsky.social • 2 days ago

I don't think Trump withdrawal from NATO is likely at this stage, but there is a very real risk that Trump blames Ukraine & Europe for a failure of diplomacy. Avoids needs to apply pressure to Russia, aids normalisation w/ Russia, allows him to abandon Ukraine with 'less blame' for consequences.

Reposted from Hein Goemans

Next potential steps: Trump will blame Ukr and Europe for a no-deal. He will claim they are against peace. And will use this to withdraw at least partly from NATO. A more miraculous rise from the ashes by a defeated power than the death of Empress Elizabeth of Russia in 1762.

Comments

costanztrade.bsky.social•2 days ago

"Risk"? Think we're solidly there

jwonsm.bsky.social•1 day ago

Unfortunately it makes little difference whether the US is in NATO during Trump's presidency since he could renege on its commitments. If anything NATO may currently be weaker with rather than without the USA while Trump is president - especially if as many suspect he is a Kremlin agent

dburx.bsky.social•2 days ago

NATO's importance is not the legal text, not is it the inertia of day-to-day military planning. 'Withdrawal' has already occurred in substance: no one can count on the US.

scassian.bsky.social•2 days ago

He doesn’t need to formally withdraw. Can any sentient being trust he would honour article 5 in any circumstances after that?

paul-newengland.bsky.social•2 days ago

United States has effectively withdrawn from NATO.
This is more iffy than Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962.
US alignment is with who?
-- NATO?
-- Putin?
-- EU?
-- Xi?
-- KJu?

fyi.. War is inevitable if Trump and Red Hats stay in power.
IN·ev·i·ta·ble, certain to happen, unavoidable.

mrhappyonbsky.bsky.social•2 days ago

agree 100%

motosunburn.bsky.social•2 days ago

Nato's official raison d'etre ceased to exist in 1990. Today it's an arm of US foreign policy, so perhaps unlikely the US will leave. But with Nato unwilling to defend Ukraine in a way that could lead to direct conflict with Russia and potential nukes, does it have any point anyway?

halken.bsky.social•2 days ago

We Europeans will still have to replace US enablers in NATO with our own and crate some heavy divisions as well, for our own security vis a vis Russia.

davidherdson.bsky.social•2 days ago

Why do you not think it likely?

ukraine-campaign.bsky.social•2 days ago

NATO cannot function with the United States still a member.
NATO's immediate enemy is Russia.
NATO cannot afford any member - let alone its most powerful one - being an ally of Russia.
NATO without the United States still has more than enough economic power to overcome the relatively feeble Russia.

agrabia.bsky.social•2 days ago

There’s a G7 summit in my home province of Alberta in June, and at this point I don’t see how it can go ahead with Trump there. Canadians are furious, and even though Alberta is a more conservative province, it’s the second largest Ukrainian diaspora in the world, after Russia.

ridder.bsky.social•2 days ago

I would say that withdrawal from NATO is just a matter of time. He's made it clear for decades he thinks it's a "bad deal", and he seems to be following his whim. I would also say that he's sent pretty clear signals he wants trade with Russia, so I think the removal of sanctions is not that far off.

globalnomaddc.bsky.social•2 days ago

Just for the record: the only country to EVER invoke Article 5 was the USA and all NATO members stood with the USA in Afghanistan for twenty years, just for the USA to sell all out by releasing 5000 Taliban from prison

ridder.bsky.social•2 days ago

Oh goodie, history lessons. Interesting fact, that every country in NATO joined the US. Tell us, who the president to sell out?

globalnomaddc.bsky.social•1 day ago

The now convicted felon made a “deal” with the Taliban (not including the Afghan government) to withdraw US and this also NATO troops from Afghanistan. Date conveniently set for the next administration.

ridder.bsky.social•1 day ago

Oh, so the guy who made the "peace deal" with the Taliban, to end the conflict where NATO supported the US, refuses to help our allies in EU *and* wants to blow up NATO?

Glad I'm here to ask the stupid questions! 😁 Also, Afghanistan wasn't included in the negotiations with the Taliban... Familiar?

will99.bsky.social•2 days ago

I really think you give Trump way too much credit for being strategic in some way. He will do whatever he wants - he tried cosplaying the peacemaker - now that hasn’t worked he will try making money with his buddy Putin. And NATO is already dead - pretty much everyone knows that now.

piosza.bsky.social•2 days ago

What are you even talking about? NATO is already dead 💀

isbi.bsky.social•2 days ago

European forces in this scenario are not helpless; the non-proliferation treaty should become a thing of the past.

bgadk.bsky.social•2 days ago

The major European powers need to make a coalition of NATO countries, who asks the USA to withdraw from the alliance.
Better to "throw them out" than Trump announces that the US leaves, or god forbid, stays and obstructs

balticdefradar.bsky.social•2 days ago

Withdrawal from #NATO is unlikely (and requires Congress approval), but at this point nobody has faith in his commitment to defend Europe.

The main risk is that #Trump can lift sanctions on Russia, which would enable RU economy to wage war for much longer.

Europe is mostly able to arm Ukraine.

ridder.bsky.social•2 days ago

"requires Congress approval"

I don't think he sees that as an impediment.

davehaterofracism.bsky.social•2 days ago

like his cabinet ' they will do what they are told' - mainly by Musk in reality.

jose-jose.bsky.social•2 days ago

And maybe lifting sanctions on Russia? Partially at least. For the business.

mrhappyonbsky.bsky.social•2 days ago

John Bolton on the matter:

williamsm.bsky.social•1 day ago

Trump and his current administration are Russian operators and by remaining in NATO they gain access to privileged information they can share with Putin. All those American bases in Europe start to look more like a thread...

williamsm.bsky.social•1 day ago

threat*

nilth.bsky.social•2 days ago

I was thinking about it.. are you sure it would be easier? After that shameful spectacle? Wouldn't have been easier without it, quietly offstage?

turnicsor.bsky.social•2 days ago

Russia probably seeded some seeds into the minds of the Trump administration. Or, at least, watered that weed to grow vigorously. And Trump didn't need much pressure to appropriate it.

davehaterofracism.bsky.social•2 days ago

Trump demanded other countries in NATO spend 5% on defence so he can say ' they didnt pay what they owed ' and pull the USA out.

If he thought every country needed to pay 5% he wouldnt be planning on cutting the USA's 3.3% by 40% over 5 years

dom-ma.bsky.social•2 days ago

What’s the difference between withdrawing from NATO and aligning with Russia against Europe?

hueythekingfish.bsky.social•2 days ago

No need to withdraw from NATO. He's already killed it.

They'll pretend to be a force for a while longer, maybe years, but when the major power & guarantor of peace makes clear it will no longer guarantee or even give a damn about peace, it's effectively if not clinically dead.

globalnomaddc.bsky.social•2 days ago

Which is rich given EC and Ukraine are not even part of the so called peace negotiations. These are btw RuZZia and US in Saudi

jenkspl64.bsky.social•2 days ago

You seem to be ignoring the flipside of why the hawks will support him. The PRC are moving full speed ahead with drills to invade Taiwan's outer islands(some are calling it Greyzone activity, but it is more than that), cutting cables, using Ro-Ro, flyovers etc Moving
resources are essential for 🇺🇲

jenkspl64.bsky.social•2 days ago

American nor anyone will fight over Matsu and Kimen islands, but the PLA invading the outer islands is odds on and gives Xi the opportunity to flag he wants to negotiate on the Taiwan itself. The old Chinese saying "to Kill the chicken to scare the monkey" applies in their logic.

smallhare.bsky.social•2 days ago

Europe should create a separate body to run parallel with NATO (while it dies). Can leave out countries like Hungary/Slovakia

a2t8.bsky.social•2 days ago

It doesn’t matter whether Trump formally withdraws. He probably won’t. But nobody can believe that Article 5 is not dead as far as the US is concerned. Canada needs to join the EU asap.

ksz01.bsky.social•2 days ago

NATO is, effectively, dead, it makes no difference if the U.S. legally leaves the organisation or not. Article 5 is no longer credible.

agnerimkute.bsky.social•2 days ago

Based on what data do we assume he knows what „a consequence“ means?…

john-rendel.bsky.social•2 days ago

Militarily, how does the war play out from here assuming with maximum non - US support for Ukraine but zero US involvement?

bgadk.bsky.social•2 days ago

About the same as today. But Putin would probably try to lean harder on Europe, than today because of the lack of US backing. And that is dangerous, because misjudgedments can easily happen.

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