Somehow this doesn't feel like a stock market crash because usually those are caused by a complex interplay between many players in a chaotic system and not some guy.
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I've always (mostly) rejected the "great man" style of historical explanations, but sweeping trends of history or no, it is shocking how one guy is managing to do things that will affect the world for many years to come.
It makes you wonder how much of history is due to "just some idiot/asshole"
Updating economic books. Markets are not the interaction of rational economic actors, but of some guys with maybe motives, but they're mostly too stupid to tell if it motives or just dumb.
Revised list of known causes of stock market crashes:
1. overleveraging enabled by lax capital controls
2. unpredicted crises in international relations, especially wars
3. unsupportable asset price inflation due to speculative bubbles
4. this fuckin' guy
At least with the Great Financial Crisis, it was a bunch of guys exploiting the same loophole in asset valuation for personal gain. This is one person deciding to burn it down for no reason
It's part of the government-efficiency thing. It used to take hundreds, maybe thousands of people to cause a crash. Now the same job can be done by one man. More efficient, see?
CFIT: "Controlled Flight Into Terrain", wherein an airworthy vehicle is piloted deliberately into the ground.
MAGA is a specific case of CFIT where the flight crew enthusiastically cheers on the deranged pilot as the plane flies into the ground, and half of the passengers voted for this to happen.
like normally the president can't really affect the economy that much because they are usually trying their best to make line go up and there's a pretty established playbook for how you do that. But apparently if he really wants to make line go down, he can do that pretty easy.
I used to say that any given Presidential Administration has very little, if any, effect on the economy. So no President should ever be rewarded or criticized for the way it's behaving.
But that was in the days when Presidents weren't economically illiterate morons.
Current s and p 500 price to earnings ratio around 25. Historically P/E ratio in times of recession is around 16/17. Hence market still way overvalued. Look out below!
In 1987 October 19 we had black Monday where the market went down 22% the two prior trading days on Thursday and Friday each went down about six or 7% just like we had last week. Can you imagine if we go down 20% tomorrow
Especially considering there's about a 40% chance that he'll blink at 11pm the day before they go into effect and claim that everyone in the world capitulated and so there's no longer a reason for tariffs. He's a gas bag that drifts in whichever direction the last person he talked to was blowing.
I'm having to like arrange emergency meetings and every single meeting is like [were pretty sure the main tariffs aren't going to hit but we have no choice but to act like they will.]
I'm going to Vietnam later this month to do inspections, if the US is this fragile it's a US problem.
The front line situation is like absolute chaos VN side right now, most of the related business is CN and KR facing and were like worried about quota enforcement being the next lever if America can't do whatever the fuck it's trying to do.
Vietnam is basically a new age version of the VOC for American capitalists, like, Trump is an idiot but they basically already were a protectorate and this was like the one way they could fuck that up.
Comments
It makes you wonder how much of history is due to "just some idiot/asshole"
1. overleveraging enabled by lax capital controls
2. unpredicted crises in international relations, especially wars
3. unsupportable asset price inflation due to speculative bubbles
4. this fuckin' guy
MAGA is a specific case of CFIT where the flight crew enthusiastically cheers on the deranged pilot as the plane flies into the ground, and half of the passengers voted for this to happen.
But that was in the days when Presidents weren't economically illiterate morons.
I'm going to Vietnam later this month to do inspections, if the US is this fragile it's a US problem.
I.e, embargo if X level is not met.
The physique of a young demigod.
The piecing look of an eagle.
The belt hauled up over his belly button.
The five pounds of turds in his pants.