If midterm elections tend to show part of a presidential party’s coalition defecting to the other side (WWC in 2010, suburban/college grads in 2018, NY/FL and some minorities in 2022), what will it be in 2026?
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If there’s backlash it’ll likely be in the suburbs again, as well as some rollback of the urban beachhead they have now. Older voters continue to move left regardless, and I bet industrial/post industrial wwc and southeast/tx Hispanic voters remain pretty mercurial.
Depends on scope and execution of the deportations. The high water mark for the generic ballot in 2018 occurred during the family separations coverage.
They're pretty big on YouTube though. And it's deceptively pro-conservative. If I even pause scrolling for a moment on the wrong thing my algo immediately goes full Trump.
Cuts to health insurance could radicalize a lot of people everywhere. So could a resurgence in inflation and immigration policy-driven impacts on the supply chain for food. Why establishment Dems are just going to let him go hog wild, probably.
Old white people die eventually. Mid terms and election cycle is just a real word example of sentiment check. Trump will push his agenda until he’s stymied the last 2 years of his term (maybe life depending on how many diet cokes he has been now and then)
Interesting situation:
-Low ag commodity prices
-Layoffs at machinery manufacturers (namely Deere)
-Insurance industry in flux (high concentration in IA, WI, MN, NE, IL)
-Potential swing back of higher income, white college grads (KC burbs, Des Moines, WOW, Omaha)
I think young people swing back. Either bc of housing, or bc Trump unleashes a “special military operation” into Mexico or Panama that nobody actually wants, and it goes poorly.
If by coalition you mean "voted for Trump in 2024," I can see some suburban women finding that the degree of lawlessness, divisiveness, and pro-inflationary policies was worse than they had hoped or anticipated.
Latino voters? Probably decided by the nature and execution of deportation efforts.
I'm not; in Texas at least, those dudes are hardasses on immigration. I know men whose frigging parents or grandparents came here illegally, so you'd think they'd have some sympathy, and NO, THEY DO NOT.
I don’t think there will be any “aha” moment among any particular demo. The US electorate is mostly thermostatic and will shift heavily against the GOP across the board accordingly. But in terms of the largest swing probably non-Florida Latinos.
Hispanics are easy guess but I’m going to take a shot and say WWC voters. Nothing too huge, but I think those white voters will show some modest movement away from Trump.
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-Low ag commodity prices
-Layoffs at machinery manufacturers (namely Deere)
-Insurance industry in flux (high concentration in IA, WI, MN, NE, IL)
-Potential swing back of higher income, white college grads (KC burbs, Des Moines, WOW, Omaha)
Against Dems (Hochul and at least nominally Adams) in New York and maybe in California.
Against GOP in....Florida? Texas? Ohio? Iowa? What GOP states are fed up with what GOP has done to state?
Red state women who lack quality OB/GYN access
Maybe some WWC men hurt by tariffs
Latino voters? Probably decided by the nature and execution of deportation efforts.