I’ve heard from friends who were affected that offboarding paperwork (which former Fed workers are usually advised to wait for before filing) is being delayed, so I imagine this is only going to continue to increase.
Is this off boarding paperwork ever going to come? Or will Elon's forces delay that indefinitely so that people can't file? If they do file, will they ever receive funds? Elon is trying to shut down everything.
I wonder if creating a glut of unemployed people pissed off at you for taking their jobs who are all in your direct vicinity is good for a brand new regime
Yeah, this is mostly contractors from the grant pauses and funding withholding starting a month or so ago. We haven't hit the federal employee layoffs in these numbers yet.
It is more than that. The IRS alone is laying off 6-7,000 probationary employees. There are over 400 federal agencies, most of which are laying off nearly all probationary employees. Also,federal contractors whose funds are being cut or threatened are also having massive layoffs.
fwiw, I'm guessing these are probably contractors and/or people whose employment depend on federal dollars (e.g. USAID). The layoffs of federal government employees are not supposed to show up in this time series, and the relevant data there is lagged.
most of the rise in DC continuing claims predates the new term too. from end of oct to end of jan, much of the rise is "Other Services". those probly aren't govt contractors but might be NAICS 8132-8139 which includes advocacy groups, grantmaking foundations, political committees, etc.
FRED is fed run right? One of my worries in this era if Trump and Elon don't get numbers they like or help them they will try to cook the books. Maybe that will be the line when Brutus comes to town
Yeah but that’s in DC which is seen as the enemy by MAGA GOP - the real hurt is coming from those outside the DC area that MAGA isn’t smart enough to know work in their own neighborhoods - wait till those ppl can’t find work & stop supporting businesses in their area etc
Combine federal job losses with home construction job losses combined with every Fortune 500 CEO wanting to implement it's own internal DOGE with no new large non-datacenter capital projects with Big Tech working around the clock on their new labor replacing technology.....
And that's just DC, federal jobs across the country have been cut. It's going to get to the point where everyone knows someone who's been unjustly fired by DOGE
Nationally so far it's barely a blip, and
honestly will mostly be overwhelmed by private employment on that measure: Guy Berger explains which stats you need to observe to get full federal impact (don't see the latest week out there yet.)
Maybe if they actually work in govt, but with enough cuts, it trickles down to the private sector. The farther away from the source, the easier it is to obscure why. 'My diner shut down'
'You think it's cause all the govt workers stopped coming?'
'Nah, it's cause they blackballed me cause I'm MAGA.'
Surely the private sector will hire them with open arms and this drive everyone’s salaries upward as the rising tide floats all boats I say to myself because I have a big Republican brain.
Comments
"Don't worry folks, all of those newly unemployed are just the poorly performing federal workers we were right to fire."
all these numbers are headed higher
honestly will mostly be overwhelmed by private employment on that measure: Guy Berger explains which stats you need to observe to get full federal impact (don't see the latest week out there yet.)
https://bsky.app/profile/econberger.bsky.social/post/3limfxsbqhc25
Who else is to blame now? Nobody.
Also, dying is one thing. It happens and then you're done. Trying to scratch out a living without work or a paycheck? That endures.
This won't be like COVID.
'You think it's cause all the govt workers stopped coming?'
'Nah, it's cause they blackballed me cause I'm MAGA.'
If it’s just DC, wonder what it looks like for MD and VA…
Gas is up
Unemployment is up
Inflation up