Trump’s job approval is down to just +2.5 in 538’s average today. Generally speaking the narrative that he is a popular president with a “mandate” for policy change is not true, especially in comparison to historical POTUS approvals https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/ - ThreadSky

gelliottmorris.com • 3 days ago

Trump’s job approval is down to just +2.5 in 538’s average today. Generally speaking the narrative that he is a popular president with a “mandate” for policy change is not true, especially in comparison to historical POTUS approvals https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/

Comments

leemancapote.bsky.social•3 days ago

So +5points negative when considering 538's slant.

mawturri.bsky.social•2 days ago

The lowest of any POTUS in history at this stage.

dlsmith.dev•3 days ago

What happened to the historical comparison page?

blake105.bsky.social•3 days ago

We need a fucking lobotomy. JFC.

veracitas.bsky.social•2 days ago

Truly disgusting that he has destroyed all that America stands for, broken a 17-year air safety record, reintroduced diseases from the 1900s, surrendered to Russia, put on a fake crown, and still half of WTP support him. Says a lot about that half.

bruinspatssox.bsky.social•3 days ago

https://open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark/p/how-to-stop-trump-in-one-stupid-chart?r=4pmcpo&utm_medium=ios

crb1079.bsky.social•3 days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/lxeagle17.bsky.social/post/3lhrjc7hios2x

This take aged so poorly

nndrew.bsky.social•3 days ago

While I think that all the electoral peeps might be weirdos and therefore you should take their non electoral takes with a grain of salt... This stuff can take a while to filter out to people who barely know what's going on because they're busy living their lives.

crb1079.bsky.social•3 days ago

Right...which is why it is so striking how drastically the numbers have moved in about 10 days

nndrew.bsky.social•3 days ago

I took his skeet (a word I have never used before) to mean that there wouldn't be an immediate plunge of approval like people who are actually paying attention thought there would be (and I would have liked to see), especially given how wishy-washy the press is.

crb1079.bsky.social•2 days ago

Maybe me and LJ are just talking past each other with the various terms. When you spread out the timeline 4 years you can really tell when there is a huge drop. Six ish points is a lot in a month. If LJ's position is the drop is in line with history and we can't know the cause yet, I can buy that.

lxeagle17.bsky.social•3 days ago

How did it age poorly? His approval is still mediocre, is still net positive, and is still only going through a steady decline instead of a massive collapse.

zecat123.bsky.social•2 days ago

Biden’s honeymoon was mediocre

bastillesam.bsky.social•2 days ago

Still better than Trump's.

xxriotgrrrrrlxx.bsky.social•2 days ago

It took 10 years to dupe the masses, the collapse will not happen in a month, despite the fantasies of the left. Decline will be gradual.

crb1079.bsky.social•2 days ago

We must simply differ on what a "big" drop in net approval is after less than a month in office when the POTUS is already so close to being underwater. For example the same number drop was certainly not described as steady in '21 late summer for Biden post Afghanistan withdrawal.

brr.bsky.social•3 days ago

a steady decline is what happened to biden. negatives by month 2 is a massive collapse

mvedj.bsky.social•2 days ago

Doesn't reflect well on half the country's intelligence and ethics...

jarodkashkin.bsky.social•2 days ago

Haven’t trust Silver’s takes for some years 🤷🏻‍♂️

tempvsfvgit76.bsky.social•3 days ago

The majority of Americans are fcking morons. An ignorant people.

cmcknichols.bsky.social•3 days ago

What is more, he's been basically uniformly blah on approval ratings - and never had a spike upward of great popularity, like many presidents, say after a great bill passes, or amazing speech, or in rallying to the flag in a crisis...

leftlibertarian.bsky.social•3 days ago

What great bills did he pass?

cmcknichols.bsky.social•2 days ago

That is an historical counterfactual, or so I intended. Other presidents have seen a spike in popularity when they pushed a bill that was passed and implemented, but not Trump.

adjameson.bsky.social•3 days ago

For comparison, wasn't Joe Biden up by like 17% one month into his presidency? And no one thought he was a king with the power to completely remake the federal government.

bruinspatssox.bsky.social•3 days ago

He didn’t have the arrogance or disrespect for his country to assert that

andreagillespie.bsky.social•3 days ago

My opinion of my fellow citizens continues to drop.

chrisgbedford.bsky.social•3 days ago

And the [stuff] has just barely started to hit the fan.

pendletonb.bsky.social•3 days ago

If you took out all the Republican sponsored skewed polls he would be even lower.

jonp214.bsky.social•3 days ago

@gelliottmorris.com Elliot, what are your thoughts on the Civiqs trackers?

chiefjoer.bsky.social•2 days ago

Biden was like 39 his whole presidency. Call me when he gets there. These look like good numbers.

localfamily.bsky.social•2 days ago

How do you account for such wide differences between polls?

hedgert.bsky.social•2 days ago

So do we look forward to a time when Trump starts shitting down media organisations when they report these numbers going negative for Trump?

hedgert.bsky.social•2 days ago

While it s reassuring to see the direction the numbers are going in, it is incomprehensible that a majority of those polled think, a complete idiot who is trashing the US’ international reputation and turning it into an international laughing stock, is doing a good job

themstems.bsky.social•2 days ago

Probably sunk cost will have many who invested in his scam, trying to tell themselves they are smart and made the right choice for a lot longer, even as they lose their jobs or benefits, or take a pounding at the grocery store. They need something to believe in & sadly, he captured that spot

princessmom122.bsky.social•2 days ago

Plurality. But this is an aggregate. He's underwater in the WaPo poll.

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