My analogy:
They(investors) are blindly walking a plank(this economic path) while cheering on the sharks(we the people). They are so excited about deregulation and tax cuts that they can’t even see that Trump is ruining us all.
Oh, there's a reason. When MAGA policies and actions create economic chaos, fear, uncertainty and doubt, asset valuations will crash. At that point anybody sitting on billions in cash will have a field day picking apart the corpse.
I guess the argument for "more likely" is MAGA still blames Dems for everything going wrong, and he says "only I can fix it" again, and cancels elections?
I'm no expert, but the trickle down effect of the mass firings, loss of health care, both for vets and others, etc etc etc etc will filter through IMHO. But so much harm will have been done, we don't know much about what we will be facing. FOTUS himself will be quite aged, though he has spawn.
How much of this IS the fact that it is for no apparent reason? The press is used to presenting Trump’s actions as super secret 3d chess with a method to the madness, but there’s no method here
Break multiple parts of the government, start trade wars, etc., of course there are going to be multiple bad economic consequences that at some point interact with each other. The point is so obvious that one wonders, Are his advisors so stupid? Is starting a recession intentional?
I mean, the real reason is "to clear enough cap space for an enormous tax cut" but like "wrecking the federal regulatory state" and "allowing private equity to snap up distressed properties" are all completely foreseeable second-order components of their plan.
Not for no reason. He's doing at the behest of the world's autocrats because they don't want the U.S. stopping them from attacking their neighbors and he agrees with them.
From the start this has been about a bunch of “Masters of the Universe” who have decided that a nice steady return is not enough.
They win no matter what:
If they manage to actually wrench the system to their whims they “win”.
If they just tank the economy they get to buy up assets on the cheap.
He wants marshal law, devalue dollar and destroy us all in the name of Russia. He’ll take the $$ gold from fed and buy bitcoin for his masters. Congress needs to act!
So ..... if they lay off One or Two million federal workers, how are they gonna pay their rent? How do they pay their bills? How are they gonna but food?
Thats a LOT of money suddenly out of circulation in the economy and the ripple effects will be disasterous.
exactly. it’s preposterous to think those firings are done in some kind of bubble.
we are currently seeing just the pure psychological effects of people *watching* others lose their jobs and then tightening their own purse strings in response.
There are some real "reduce the surplus population" vibes to all of this. Even if not that dire, it will create a labor glut that will reduce wages across the board. I would also not be surprised by a coming wave of crony privatization of work now done by federal workers at reduced wages/benefits.
Trying to conceive of a reason for the steps being taken... Sadly, it seems that a weakened, divided, angry populace is more easily sparked into violence and fear, "justifying" rationales for greater government controls. A fearsome projection, but seems to be one path we may be on.
The rich usually benefit from recessions, while the other 98% can lose everything. The rich buy repossessed homes, cars, etc., at fire sale prices and flip them for a profit, while the other 98% lose their jobs, assets, credit rating and much, much more. It’s a feature, not a bug.
It’s as if today’s market rnt as reactive to major news events as they might have been in the past. I mean how much more dire does it get for US political/economic system than what Trump/Musk are doing? It’s as if the market is on the wait and see position. https://bsky.app/profile/pwnallthethings.bsky.social/post/3lj6cowlob22j
Comments
Everyone else loses.
Six days ago the WSJ ran this headline: "Why Is Warren Buffett Hoarding So Much Cash?"
It's because he sees what's coming.
They(investors) are blindly walking a plank(this economic path) while cheering on the sharks(we the people). They are so excited about deregulation and tax cuts that they can’t even see that Trump is ruining us all.
I guess the argument for "more likely" is MAGA still blames Dems for everything going wrong, and he says "only I can fix it" again, and cancels elections?
King Donald can, as we are getting to see.
I'm a nobody and knew he would do this.
He *said* he would do what he's doing.
Where the fuck was everyone?
And there is, in fact, a reason.
Not sure how that's still lost on so many "smart" people.
we're definitely in the upside down this go 'round.
They win no matter what:
If they manage to actually wrench the system to their whims they “win”.
If they just tank the economy they get to buy up assets on the cheap.
Or maybe he doesn't.
See, four-dimensional chess!
Thats a LOT of money suddenly out of circulation in the economy and the ripple effects will be disasterous.
we are currently seeing just the pure psychological effects of people *watching* others lose their jobs and then tightening their own purse strings in response.
Being done by people who have "one goal, no soul"
deeper into Great Depression
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/smoot-hawley-tariff-act.asp
You can paper over the *impact* of a fair amount of ridiculously bad policy choices by simply sloshing money at the near-term impacts.