Our latest voting intention poll (2-3 Feb) has Reform UK in front for the first time, although the 1pt lead is within the margin of error. Ref: 25% (+2 from 26-27 Jan) Lab: 24% (-3) Con: 21% (-1) Lib Dem: 14% (=) Green: 9% (=) SNP: 3% (=) yougov.co.uk/politics/art... - ThreadSky

yougov.co.uk • 20 days ago

Our latest voting intention poll (2-3 Feb) has Reform UK in front for the first time, although the 1pt lead is within the margin of error.

Ref: 25% (+2 from 26-27 Jan)
Lab: 24% (-3)
Con: 21% (-1)
Lib Dem: 14% (=)
Green: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51511-voting-intention-lab-24-ref-25-con-21-2-3-feb-2025

Comments

terrypasta.bsky.social•19 days ago

Starmer will have to ask someone to explain these numbers to him because he's thick as shit.

semaleena.bsky.social•19 days ago

How absolutely repugnant

I fcking hate this destroyed country

darlingd53.bsky.social•19 days ago

Who destroyed ALL of our public services......oh yeah that will be CONservatives aided and abetted by The Garage Party!

skoojala.bsky.social•20 days ago

Farage is only interested in Farage. Trump in Trump... As we see with Trump in the US, Farage would trash our democracy and replace it with oligarchy, exploiting racial divisions to get into no. 10. Don't give these dictators-in-waiting a single inch!

joshfwd.bsky.social•20 days ago

CON/REF 46%
LAB/LD/GRN 47%

But tell us again MSM how there’s a right wing surge.

The real story is that even with all the artificial hype for Reform from the shill press, the country is still voting centre left.

terrypasta.bsky.social•19 days ago

There's nothing left about Labour. That's the problem. As for the Lib Dems...oh dear.

fieldbean.bsky.social•20 days ago

Do these aggregations mean much? Lumps me with Luke Akehurst whom I would cheerfully strangle with his own testicles (metaphorically speaking). I don't think he would like me either.

wreckedvillein.bsky.social•19 days ago

Curious that you did not include the SNP and PC (and SDLP) in those figures, as they are at least as left as Starmer's Labour and the LibDems are. You're then over 51%.

andrewkerr9000.bsky.social•19 days ago

The Lab/LD/Green vote was far more efficiently distributed in 2024 than Con/Ref, and likely will be again in 2029.

hughster.bsky.social•19 days ago

Tactical voting was also extremely effective, and almost all the tactical voting website recommendations were correct. Dozens more seats would've been kept out of Con/Rfm hands had more voters joined in.

ryancrashburn.bsky.social•20 days ago

let's hope that holds. Terrifying to see how crooked it all is. Keep hoping Starmer will come to his senses about the EU...

glostermeteor.bsky.social•20 days ago

Im also old enough to remember this. When the RW media ridiculed the idea if Jo Swinson becoming PM. Yet now treat Farage like the King in waiting

jimmyrayreid.bsky.social•20 days ago

Did Jo Swinson become Prime Minister?

glostermeteor.bsky.social•20 days ago

Nope, which is kind of my point. The media are elevating little Nige to heights that his poll ratings dont really deserve

catiomiles.bsky.social•20 days ago

She even lost her seat. 😜

glostermeteor.bsky.social•20 days ago

So might Nige, but apparently hes odds on to be Prime Minister lol

robsterthermidor.bsky.social•20 days ago

Just remind me the date of the next election.

nickrochford.bsky.social•19 days ago

Sure. But not concerning to you? A neo-fascist or if u like nationalist party has so much appeal in UK?
Think you'd be surprised how much the young like this sort of thing. Social media, Internet, social and economic issues they face.

robsterthermidor.bsky.social•19 days ago

What bit of my question makes you think I’m not concerned?

shoddyknight.bsky.social•20 days ago

Fucks sake Labour.
Do Better.
Be Better.

You won't win by going Right

dimow.bsky.social•20 days ago

How can this be right? What are Reform’s policies? How will Reform improve people’s lives/save the NHS? What is wrong with the voting public when they can see what is happening in America?

mikerobson.bsky.social•20 days ago

People are pissed off and unhappy with the Govt. They still remember the Tories were awful so are protesting …..and most people don’t pay attention. If you asked your median voter about the USA they might mention tariffs but that’s probably it.

dimow.bsky.social•20 days ago

Depressing.. hard to believe anyone can believe that Farage and Co will have their best interests at heart.

mikerobson.bsky.social•20 days ago

I don’t know. I’m sure there’s 20-25% who buy the Farage vibe. There’s probably that kind of proportion in many countries.

jameslatimer.bsky.social•19 days ago

Immigration and inflation. Cost of living. Higher taxes, worse services. They will vote for anyone who promises to "put everything back the way it was" because everything is getting worse. Doesn't matter that it's impossible and that the party in question is the least likely to achieve it.

didi9876.bsky.social•19 days ago

Wake up Starmer. Tick tock, tick tock…

themegalith.bsky.social•20 days ago

I find it hard to remain hopeful in times like this.

rachelyn75.bsky.social•19 days ago

I think it is now unfair to call this racist. This has genuinely been a failure by "Starmers" Labour to take the vote they received and translate that communication towards the people that voted for them. All those Ming vases and he has sold them off to the highest bidder. N nowt for his voters.

jamcam80s.bsky.social•19 days ago

Utterly depressing

annasking.bsky.social•20 days ago

Good grief

whysocialmedia.bsky.social•19 days ago

Everyone trying to send a message to Labour govt. No clue whether they are hearing it...

ashles.bsky.social•19 days ago

Whilst this looks ridiculous it's probably just a result of
A) How staggeringly bad the Tories currently are.
B) Labour delivering a lot of v unpopular policies (some of which might be correct but certainly look not great esp with R Wing press) and also making some v weird and un-Labour decisions.

ashles.bsky.social•19 days ago

We're a loooong way from this reflecting any sort of actual reality.
And the truth is, Reform wouldn't have a clue what to do if they actually won. It would be like Boris Johnson on the day after the Brexit vote. He was actually horrified he had won. Had no idea what to do other than run away.

upsilonmale.bsky.social•19 days ago

Their donors will know exactly what to do, don't you worry about that. The right being a shower of grifters is in no way a comfort here.

tweet-by-sea.bsky.social•19 days ago

Agree, Reform wouldn't have a clue on their own. However the Far Right has gone international and I don't think it's crazy to imagine Reform getting help from the US and Musk. They have a repeatable model now.

ashles.bsky.social•19 days ago

It's repeatable, the question is if it is sustainable? It's absolute chaos over in the US at the moment. Musk and Trump are going to give UK politicians a lot of things to point at and say 'Do we really want *that?'

tweet-by-sea.bsky.social•19 days ago

I was thinking about this yesterday. Govts moving to the far right often fuck up the economy in an ideological frenzy and then crash and burn. You'd think that would deter voters for at least a generation but nope. Reform riding high and Trump voted for another go!

upsilonmale.bsky.social•19 days ago

Trump screwing up the economy is only a problem for them if they intend to have elections in the future, which Trump himself has said there won't be.

stevemc.bsky.social•19 days ago

Next election is August 2029 - last election was 2024! You need to lead in the polls going into an election not six months after one you just lost! Typical Farage and Reform getting everything the wrong way round! #wato lbc

rmcl82.bsky.social•20 days ago

It takes a special kind of moron to look at what’s happening in the US and think “I’d love a bit of that over here in the UK”…

mrdw98.bsky.social•19 days ago

Pity coz there plenty of them 🤦🏼‍♀️

beauwoodworks.bsky.social•20 days ago

How do we change the minds of the 'special kind of moron'

Trump showed everyone who he was and announced his intentions and the people went for it. Not as extreme but it was the same with with Borris Johnson and now F****** Farage

rmcl82.bsky.social•20 days ago

I think governments to get back to basics. Stats about how the economy is growing won’t sway people - it’s how they feel about the economy/their lives that matters (e.g. do they have disposable income, can they see a doctor/dentist). Extremism thrives on fear, and that includes fear of “not enough”.

rmcl82.bsky.social•20 days ago

Do the boring stuff, but do it well.

beauwoodworks.bsky.social•20 days ago

Do you think that will win them over? I want that to be true but....

People go for 'celebrities' more than grafters these days and to hell with the consequences

Honestly I've given up hope and wondering how awful it has to get before everyone wakes up

rmcl82.bsky.social•20 days ago

As stupid and trivial as it may seem, I think little things/local issues (e.g. road repairs, support for small business, tackling petty crime etc.) really does sway voters and their perception. If communities are depressed, run-down and suffering from malaise, that’s when the blame game starts.

heatherherbert.uk•19 days ago

People always have. Reform fold like a paper plane when you go after them but Labour like the Dems in the US don't have the balls to do that.
Highlighting how immigration is a good thing would be a start.

sladeofyaupon.bsky.social•20 days ago

i worry that it takes a very common kind of moron, sadly

terrypasta.bsky.social•19 days ago

rmcl82.bsky.social•19 days ago

That would be a marvellous “gotcha” if she actually said that, but she didn’t, so it isn’t.

terrypasta.bsky.social•19 days ago

She very much did. She was asked if the UK could benefit from "Trump's positivity", and she said yes. No buts. Stop lying to yourself and start dealing with reality. Our govt is aligned with the far right.

rmcl82.bsky.social•20 days ago

I don’t want you to be right (in the nicest possible way!), but…

linpierp.bsky.social•19 days ago

Please God let us not be this stupid! Just look at what’s happening in America, if these cretins get in to power the same thing will happen here.

marvinhumanoid.bsky.social•19 days ago

out of less than 2500 people...hardly representative! Is this scare tactics?

kaistoner.bsky.social•19 days ago

It's about average for a political poll.

bobirving.bsky.social•19 days ago

Err... what lead? Since when has 440 (RefUK) been greater than 449 (UKLab)?

nico176.bsky.social•20 days ago

Scrutiny of policy will trip Reform up. An insurance based health system may not be too popular.

howb1zarre.bsky.social•19 days ago

The mother of idiocy is constantly fucking pregnant on these shores

rfctabs.bsky.social•19 days ago

Given that the Cons and Deform share almost identical far-right views, the most depressing thing about this is that 46% of respondents do not support even remotely centre or left policies.

oldhuman2.bsky.social•19 days ago

Weirdly, when polled about nationalisation, large majorities for all services! Non existent political education and massively biased media distort the centre left tendency of average British.

wakeylass.bsky.social•20 days ago

Who cares.
It's 4.5yrs to the next election, a lot can happen by then, look at the last couple of days!

mikebrady.bsky.social•20 days ago

It’s long overdue that Reform were asked about their policy of scrapping net zero and accelerating climate breakdown - and how this helps their backer Elon Musk.

rmcl82.bsky.social•20 days ago

And not just their net zero policy either - everything they are spouting should be scrutinised and challenged (and preferably by serious journalists who won’t let him soapbox his way out of direct answers)!

shellywilson.bsky.social•20 days ago

Matters little right now. Next GE is years away!

shellywilson.bsky.social•20 days ago

And then there’s this! Not a scenario Farage advocates.

abladder.bsky.social•20 days ago

Has there ever been a time, in any democracy, where a private company is preferred by 1 in 4 voters to form a government rather than a democratically constituted political party?
Would USA voters allow Tesla/SpaceX to govern the USA?

Oh.

evies13.bsky.social•19 days ago

Making me even more emphatically pro-Scottish Independence.

scarlet-rebel.bsky.social•20 days ago

How do we know this is not musk interfering with the polls? It's been clearly stated that he interfered with the US election, so interfering with the results on a website / app will be something simple to him.

rmcl82.bsky.social•20 days ago

Only need a quick glance at the German election to see just how malign that interference can be in a European as well as US context too…

benskipper.bsky.social•19 days ago

Reform, literally a party of deviants.

willd99.bsky.social•20 days ago

Thankfully it’s not 2029, whilst concerning I’m not putting underpants on my head and sticking 2 pencils up my nose quite yet.

mickeyhynes.bsky.social•20 days ago

That's a FPTP random government generator at the moment.

greyeyemagpie.bsky.social•18 days ago

It's a good thing then in this case that the UK has neither proportional representation, nor the need to call an election for the next four years, so 🤷

haziereal.bsky.social•20 days ago

Wtf is wrong with people?

dossymoore.bsky.social•18 days ago

I personally do not know any people who would vote for Reform. Where do these people live?

jwvbsky.bsky.social•19 days ago

if a quarter of people are genuinely for Reform we have one hell of a B ship. I suggest that much of this a lack of Weetabix

nic-holland.bsky.social•20 days ago

How is this so... when the majority of the British public think brexit was a mistake? Something is a foot 🤷‍♂️

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