In addition to the obvious internal US problems, very difficult for external allies to navigate 'the most important army in the western alliance is in the centre of a political struggle'.
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I very much remember, whilst he was still Prez last time, there were some mysterious press releases from the military stating that they were loyal to the USA & the *office* of prez, not the individual. I think he tested their loyalty for a coup and they told him to F-off. Hence this.
Unsurprisingly, the tenor of their appointments thus far is 'he wasn't kidding', which is going to have a lot of consequences because a lot of the things he has said he'll do are not easily reconciled with one another. Excellent overview on the China hawks he has appointed here:
The one common thread seems to be utter loyalty to Trump, with no history of resistance. If Trump II is as ad hoc and transactional as Trump I, differences across a loyalist staff's points of view on policy will just get sorted by whatever Tr decides at the moment.
From the comments coming out of Moscow it is obvious that Trump is still owned by Putin who is (checks notes) an ally of Xi. The idea he will be hawkish on China is like a bucket of shit from China…far fetched.
I do wonder whether the foreign adversaries who clearly wanted Trump to win (and maybe worked toward that end) will wind up feeling a touch of buyer's remorse if/when this all gets completely out of hand.
In trying to kneecap American influence, they may end up setting off a powderkeg.
Or for Britain to similarly collapse, as the Establishment sneak the last of their wealth to those Caribbean tax havens they refused to close. And still do. Sadly, it's not clear exactly what lines will this will all take. But none of it will be good.
Unsurprising that the loudest voices warning of potential US military instability and urging others to up defence spending are Poland and the Baltics - they know what such paralysis means.
There won't be a struggle. The 3/4 stars will either bend the knee or be dismissed. I think many people still haven't grasped that with a trifecta and a friendly SC there's no legal/constitutional way of stopping this
The upper ranks of your army being purged is still, in fact, a political struggle. A struggle doesn't have to be finely balanced or non-predictable to exist!
And from the perspective of European politicians (the subject of the skeet), 'respected general who you've worked with gets purged' is definitely 'your ally's military is in a political struggle'.
Yes, well rather than seeing the purge and thinking "political struggle" European politicos need to grasp that any struggle is over and what we are seeing are the consequences. To be clear, I don't like it one bit but unfortunately this is where we are
I mean there's also just the existential embarrassment of taking orders from a military that is subject to something as naff as a Warriors Board. And of course the possibility said board may have views on NATO appointments.
Right, and how competent are these politically chosen generals going to actually be, how frequent will the purges be (to the best of my knowledge I can't think of a historical example of them being one-and-done).
You can easily see how also a lot of European and Pacific interests maybe escape fine because the 'warrior board' would go 'well, he can't be woke, he's been on the frontline with China/killing IS fighters' and then they get in the year two or three purges.
For me "political struggle" implies the existence of some sort of meaningful opposition or contest which has a non-zero chance of preventing you completely achieving your objective. That's not the case here, though perhaps I'm being too linguistically pedantic
The nature of purging your armed forces because you worry they are Insufficiently Loyal is that it never actually ends because, well, to be blunt, it's actually very hard to tell if you've pulled it off.
Sure, endless purging is not healthy for a military. But Trump doesn't want a healthy military, he wants a loyal one. And there are probably enough MAGAs in the officer corps for him to achieve that
That Trump thinks he needs to create extraordinary structures to get the military leadership he wants as opposed to manipulating the usual channels, certainly suggests that there is some political/bureaucratic resistance to overcome
Sure, some current leaders would no doubt resist some of the things Trump will probably be calling on the military to do. But removing them will not entail a struggle
I don't understand why you're getting hung up on this. If the president is conducting an open witch-hunt for opponents in the military leadership that is a political struggle. At the very least they'll be second guessing whether the purge has gone too far or not far enough
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#ProveMeWrong
In trying to kneecap American influence, they may end up setting off a powderkeg.
Putin wants the powder keg.
Yeah. That is going to go well.
No way a certain family. Who essentially run the Pentagon. Are going to let any of that slide.
I can see the origins of a decade-long civil war.
Finally!
Wait. Making sense of a terrible future is bad thing.
Right? Right??