Deterrence failed on February 24th. Nuclear blackmail works. Nuclear weapons are the only remaining security guarantee and some people need to get it into their thick fucking skulls
We might need them here in Canada. In fact, we should already be pursuing them due to the threat North Korea poses. If they and Iran and Russia can have nukes, we absolutely need them too and so does Ukraine.
principally a devastatingly accurate assessment imho.
The alternative was STEADY upramping of supply for UKR;
which failed
(sending not enough tanks AND not enough jets AND prohibition of long strike cannot work)
The USA & GER / the inner circle of advisers did not comprehend that we cannot lose
Even now the major powers haven't understood the very different realities smaller countries live in. For them, wars are temporary and shift their realities temporarily.
For small countries every war is an existential crisis that can wipe them out completely and they can seize to exist. 1/2
They can't comprehend even the possibility and therefore are willing to consider the option of losing as in the end they won't be any worse off in a few years. The thought of simply vanishing doesn't even register to them. 2/2
Yet when Turkey warned Russia they would target another Russian jet in their airspace, then Russia again violated Turkish airspace, Turkey shot down the Russian plane and pilots. Putin didn't do squat to Turkey...except respect its airspace gong forward. Don't back down to a bully.
Biden's administration will be known as the worst for global security, and letting a possible 3rd world war fully metastasize...Now that Trump is in charge and looking to start a war with NATO allies on behalf of Putin.
US intelligence had information that nuclear strikes to extricate the Russian forces was being serious considered by the Kremlin, they put the odds at 50%. I would say letting the Russians escape was better than Kherson being turned into a parking lot.
russia using a nuke would have doomed itself. People need to get over their fear of the slightly bigger bombs already. Look at Bachmut, it would probably have been better off being nuked.
The decicive defeat of russia is what should be everybody's goal, not this cowardly appeasment.
In the moment, I wasn't entirely against the tradeoff. Even if not nuclear, seemed like there was a deal to preserve Kherson if the Russians could pull out.
Problem is this colored everything after.
After this, Ukraine was deliberately throttled aid to prevent significant wins of the same scale.
That and the West never provided Ukraine with what it needed to achieve air dominance. The US and NATO would never initiate an offensive without first controlling the skies. Yet they expected Ukraine to do so.
The failure to get Ukraine a fleet of F-16s by the middle of 2023 was/is a disgrace.
Agreed. People just don’t understand that the use of a nuke would change a lot too quickly and none of it would be about the Ukraine conflict or the actual deaths the weapon might have caused
Why would Russia nuke Kherson? Surely if they were going to nuke Ukraine it would be either Kyiv (decapitation), Lviv (symbolic strike against the "Banderite den") or the entire country?
So this nonsense made it to bsky as well. I guess checking whether something like this is actually stated in the book takes too much effort. And rage-baiting gets you likes and comments every time.
Short summary of the relevant chapter (chapter 35):
Oh this is some absolute nonsense, what the hell? I didn't go to Yale and can see they were wrong. They couldn't adapt to the intelligence on the ground?
It goes back much further than that. When “little green men” showed up in Crimea in 2014, the US told Ukraine to keep their soldiers in Crimea on their bases and not fight back. 10 years of sanctions have been mostly ineffectual and Russia still sources western parts for it’s military.
He is never going to use it, he will get nuked too and does he want that? What prevents him from doing it anyway when he realizes that his country is collapsing economically?
Comments
But you're right. Nukes are the Big Stick and if you don't have one you're gonna get pushed around by those that do.
The alternative was STEADY upramping of supply for UKR;
which failed
(sending not enough tanks AND not enough jets AND prohibition of long strike cannot work)
The USA & GER / the inner circle of advisers did not comprehend that we cannot lose
For small countries every war is an existential crisis that can wipe them out completely and they can seize to exist. 1/2
Too much dependencies---economic, often
and/or too hesitant---cowardly---with not enough GUTTS to listen to the experts---or chosing wrong / soft experts by purpose
and/or too indebted => obliged to spare EVERYWHERE when 1 crisis pops up
Seriously I agree with you 100%.
i.e. the defaut confidence level for "he said a thing and we have no intelligence to either prove or disprove it".
IT'S PUTIN! IT'S ALWAYS BULLSHIT YOU STUPID STUPID BOY!
https://vatniksoup.com/en/nuclear-threats/
abbyii?🤔
It is the ONLY WAY to guarantee sovereignty on this cursed planet.
Actually, make that the whole effing war.
https://bsky.app/profile/michaelkofman.bsky.social/post/3lfirfbhoes2s
Puts this little vignette into a bit more perspective.
It seemed like they had the Russians cornered, and then they just let them go.
The decicive defeat of russia is what should be everybody's goal, not this cowardly appeasment.
Problem is this colored everything after.
After this, Ukraine was deliberately throttled aid to prevent significant wins of the same scale.
Tanks and weapons were dripped in, fewer and later than needed.
All to prevent Russian losing, and threatening a nuke.
Russia knew this and exploited it.
The failure to get Ukraine a fleet of F-16s by the middle of 2023 was/is a disgrace.
If they actually hit people or even a military target, that would be the end of their economy.
But I think a public test somewhere is possible if he thinks he's losing. He knows how terrified the US and Germany are of even a public test.
no sweat off their brow as only Ukrainians keep dying...
Short summary of the relevant chapter (chapter 35):
I totally bought the claim (similar stuff was implied in the book but IMO not about that retreat)
gonna unfollow if it was just made up