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armankafai.bsky.social
Current: 🚙 Data Analyst Contributor: ✍️ @backheeled.com Prev: ⚽️ Data w/ FC Dallas ☄️UT Dallas ‘19/20 BS/MS Economics https://footyanalyticmusings.substack.com/
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Probably the most well-rounded attacking midfielder in Liga MX, does pretty much everything you'd want at an above average level (though dribbles are have now dropped given his age). He's also improved his shot locations every season and is now a key goal-scorer for América as Henry Martín ages.

I wonder how close that Orlando City/Alex Zendejas link was. It's a small sample size (630 min) but Zendejas has .39 xG and .46 xA so far, building off the strong Apertura season. (I'm pretty sure @tomh36.bsky.social can add more to how Zendejas has been this season better than I can)

Catching up on CCC last night before the matches today... time is ticking for Columbus to replace Cucho.

Each week in THE HEX we talk about the six biggest stories in North American soccer. This week, some early MLS returns, our CCC favorites & the vibe in Guadalajara. www.youtube.com/watch?v=eekl...

Make sure you listen to The Hex this week with @jonarnoldfc.bsky.social and @drobertson27.bsky.social as we dive into CCC and early MLS conversation!

The U22 Initiative slots are considered prime roster spots in MLS. MLS’ roster construction rules are based around U22s and DPs. How should a team go about filling that spot, knowing what we’ve seen historically? We dig into the U22 initiative for FAM:

How did Denkey not score that??

Credit @3rddegree.net for finding this pic, but man, it is an insane fumble by FC Dallas to not have these renovations ready to capitalize on the 2026 World Cup. At least NYCFC project their stadium will be done in 2027. Dallas doesn’t expect renovations to be done until 2028!

The U22 Initiative slots are considered prime roster spots in MLS. MLS’ roster construction rules are based around U22s and DPs. How should a team go about filling that spot, knowing what we’ve seen historically? We dig into the U22 initiative for FAM:

For @backheeled.com, I dug into the U22 Initiative. Since it was launched, MLS clubs have spent $300 million on young players, but the results on the field have been mixed at best, and the wave of sales to Europe hasn't yet panned out.

Over the last four years, MLS teams have spent $300 million on U22 Initiative signings. But has spending on young players improved the league's quality of play or its standing in the global soccer landscape? @benwright.bsky.social examines MLS's pricey endeavor ⤵️ www.backheeled.com/mls-u22-init...

You’ve probably heard us mention the ASI Summit a few times now. Here’s @akeaswaran.me’s summary of the goings on and all of the talk recordings if you were unable to attend: www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2025/3/...

Basketball gives me no joy right now

Go watch Sebastian’s presentation or else we’re not friends

So, about those anonymous soccer analysts Minnesota are working with... www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2025/3/1/american-soccer-analysis-announce-minnesota-united-fc-as-analytics-consulting-client

Maybe we should’ve upped it @armankafai.bsky.social

Must read thread from one of the masterminds who built the xG tiers that I reference quite a bit.

I'm enjoying seeing one of our Where Goals Come From models used out in the wild more this young MLS season. It's called the "xG Tiers". Starting with the fact that every professional league has an average conversation rate of ~10%, the xG Tiers describe in shots in simple terms: 1/

The Dynamo have given their opponents all three goals so far this season

xG shot quality for Austin FC vs. Portland (from @fbref.com). The only "Good xG" opportunity was when Brandon Vázquez got his head on a corner kick from Dani Pereira in the last minute of extra time. (Inspired by an @armankafai.bsky.social article. footyanalyticmusings.substack.com/p/welcome-an... )

This is just amazing coverage from @armankafai.bsky.social and the entire @backheeled.com team Absolute must-read coverage if you follow the league

FC Dallas’ problem last year was defense so naturally they drastically improved the offensive and marginally improved the defense and the result is absolute fireworks every match

👀My Week 2 MLS Watch Guide is LIVE! I dug into the three games I'm watching as we continue to gain data points on MLS teams. Why my eyes are going to be in Charlotte, New York, and Colorado as another matchday rolls on in our (sometimes) beautiful league.

Rise and shine! It’s time for Week 2 of MLS as I dive into three of my most intriguing matchups going into the weekend

My favorite part of this piece:

👀My Week 2 MLS Watch Guide is LIVE! I dug into the three games I'm watching as we continue to gain data points on MLS teams. Why my eyes are going to be in Charlotte, New York, and Colorado as another matchday rolls on in our (sometimes) beautiful league.

Free newsletter: 2025 Club Roster Profiles give MLS some much-needed transparency. As such, I've given you some tools for understanding MLS roster builds, and to theory-craft your own versions. tacticsfreezone.substack.com/p/2025-club-...

This is the issue I have with the Dynamo style of play. While it’s pretty and possession oriented, it often struggles to produce goal scoring moments. For example in 2024, their npxG was the 9th fewest in MLS according to @fbref.com. A 10 will for sure help that problem but they a solution

Earlier today, MLS provided key insights into the roster builds and construction models for all 30 clubs: ▫️ Jordi Alba is now a DP ▫️ Moves coming for Columbus, DC, and RBNY? ▫️ ...and more! Analysis from @marcmachado.bsky.social and @armankafai.bsky.social ⤵️ www.backheeled.com/jordi-alba-m...

𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗠𝗟𝗦'𝘀 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗱 ⭐️ Jonathan Bamba plays like...Denis Bouanga? 📈 Earthquakes find chances under Bruce Arena ⬆️ Direct play from CF Montreal @armankafai.bsky.social digs into the data ⤵️ www.backheeled.com/mls-data-tac...

✍️ Liga MX: Mid-season report 👇 📈 Analyzing every team's underlying numbers ➡️ Who creates more in transitions? ⚽ Profiling each side's style of play 🔨 Build-up analysis- In which zones do teams possess the ball more frequently than league average? cambiodejuegoenglish.beehiiv.com/p/liga-mx-mi...

You got a 2 for 1 for me today. I dove into some interesting topics from week one but be aware: we’re so early and the sample size is so small, that we’re just making note of what’s going on

Made my @backheeled.com debut alongside @armankafai.bsky.social to break down MLS’s spring roster profiles, including why fans in Columbus, D.C., and New Jersey should turn on Tom’s notifications.

Again, want to shoutout MLS and their push for transparency. They’ve been doing an excellent job clarifying details and being receptive to feedback regarding it. We obviously won’t be able to get 100% transparency due to the budget charge calculation but we’re inching closer and closer to that

$4m on a player with 0 first team appearances is… a choice

Even the pitch dimensions at Geodis have been tweaked to fit BJ Callaghan's approach. Nashville SC's playing surface is now officially 115x72 yards, down from 120x75 in 2024.

MLS unveiled a flurry of rule changes including one that slowly pushes the league towards the NBA style of roster building: non-expiring GAM. My take on that plus more on the latest edition of the newsletter.

Over at @backheeled.com, we're debuting another(!) weekly column: MLS In-Depth Power Rankings. In a twist on a classic, we’re not just ranking every MLS team. We’re analyzing them all, too. Find out where your team sits — and what's interesting about them ⤵️ www.backheeled.com/mls-in-depth...

Prototype Postgame Viz that I'm serving up for #ATLvMTL: #CFMontreal was really cooking by switching the point of attack. Lots of great chances from buildup play that circled the back-line. #AtlantaUnited was more direct, starting their attacks from further up the field. Talent + scrap = goals.

MLS unveiled a flurry of rule changes including one that slowly pushes the league towards the NBA style of roster building: non-expiring GAM. My take on that plus more on the latest edition of the newsletter.