brasidas.bsky.social
Not Laconic
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The beauty of AI is taking the information human centipede and turning it into an infinite circle.
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AI can increase your productivity by automating the task of dealing with Elon Musk.
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Just drop last week's calendar into ChatGPT and ask it to summarize the impact of each event in 2-3 pages...
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You can prep for them. Additionally, factors like fatigue affect scores. At the median, it’s less of a factor than going 140-165 given the multiple sigmas involved.
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Ted Kaczynski is also a good IQ Koan if you want one.
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I mean, that's kind of guns and butter. IQ and decision-making aren't nearly as related and I have a whole rant about getting high on your own supply regardly Comey.
Making one moral decision correctly does not determine how you would make subsequent ones, and can actually make you perform worse.
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But the idea that an "Elon musk biographer" or sabermetrics guy could measure the IQ of people without access to them is something for sure.
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They are both doing appeal to authority fallacies and straw man arguments and it's very funny.
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It's probably less determinative of overall intelligence than grip strength is of overall fitness.
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I'd take it as a biased, noisey estimator of a particular aspect of intelligence.
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Second, that IQ is somehow a measurement of "general intelligence." It is not. Intelligence is a multi-faceted trait like "fitness."
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There's two major problems that the IQ obsessed gloss over - first, that it is some immutable personal quality. It is not. You will get a different number every time. Particularly because the harder questions are very stochastic.
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Like IQ correlates with income or happiness or really anything only on the bottom-half of the distribution, and only really when you start getting really low numbers.
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I tend to agree with NN Taleb in seeing IQ as being a worthwhile measurement only for numbers below 100.
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I actually think it is impossible to do - particularly with the number of vocabulary-based reasoning questions on most IQ tests.
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Diagnosing someone's IQ is actually quite difficult even with access to their IQ testing.
Abramson is a fool for his quotes about Musk as much as Silver is a fool for asking why historians don't focus more on IQ.
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It's an appeal to authority fallacy and Abramson has as much expertise in this as he has in game theory.
It's never time for some game theory...
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very funny because Nate Silver is not a historian so, like, "I don't understand why historians don't put more emphasis on Objective Brain Quality" is just a straightforwardly true statement.
Correct, Nate! As a guy who doesn't know what he's talking about, you do not know what you're talking about!
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Like, "are you thinking of the band Hoobastank? Creed?"
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So a big part of being in the military is having blank spots in pop culture - you go to boot camp, you deploy, stuff happens, and you miss things.
I really feel like I missed Nickelback being bad somewhere in there.
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The flip side is that one reason you see wealthy gentry like Washington and Jefferson fighting as radical reactionaries against the established order during the Revolution is the perceived threat to slavery that turned into an actual threat during the war.
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There's an interesting trend in the southern view of slavery extremifying in response to northern critique - the south went through greater and greater rhetorical contortions, spiraling towards the extreme racist view that slavery was not only good, but necessary from the founders' perspective.
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Oh yes. Every day is exciting.
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I would hope we would be running a different drill if it were 8% YoY...
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Like - that's not great. Really not great if you want more ships and aircraft and want things maintained.
If you've been ranting about munitions, also not great.
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To be clear - the Article I branch is first for a reason.
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It’s *A* cure…
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We need more perfume and lies:
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Again - you won't lose your job to AI or even a dumb person with AI. You have to watch out for smart people with AI and perhaps become one.
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You want to see LLMs do things? Try using them to gist information in a workflow or using them to convert structured to unstructured data.
Try sentiment tagging (with target language knowledge of course).
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But being a good intelligence professional is all about asking questions - as is being a good historian or reporter.
Mark's examples for AI use really would leverage that sort of education and experience -- but even then, I don't think that's the best way to leverage AI.
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On the military side of things, there are really two types of jobs: jobs that answer questions and those that ask them. Getting good at being an officer is understanding both and knowing how to thrive in each.
Being an XO is a bit of a "daywalker" situation in this paradigm...
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The other part is that good education, deep experience, and critical thinking really show through in asking good and interesting questions.
Doing research is important, but knowing the type of question worth answering is crucial.
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We've had Google long enough to know that memorizing facts, especially dates and the like, isn't that important. And I say this as someone who has weird advantages when it comes to memorization.
Education is about context - even and especially in technical fields.