chrismommsen.bsky.social
193 posts
32 followers
139 following
Discussion Master
comment in response to
post
since home prices are a zero sum game between buyers and sellers does a decline in housing prices necessarily indicate a recession?
comment in response to
post
Tariffs directly raise prices on the items that are tariffs but because they are a taxes they slow growth and lower inflation. This article is from the first term trump tariffs but still applies.
Also the tariffs are pretty small in the scope of the economy. www.morganstanley.com/im/publicati...
comment in response to
post
i don't know how varying the states can fix the huge disconnect between engaged and disengaged voters that's emerged since ~2018...
comment in response to
post
SF also lost the Niners and for whatever problems SF has I don't think letting them go is that important.
comment in response to
post
Don't think the East Bay is any better or worse off having lost all their teams, same with San Diego & the Chargers...
comment in response to
post
Also declining marriage rates explains over half of the tfr reduction rather than decline in fertility within marriages which suggests to me that people are generally not declining to have kids because of how their marriage is working
comment in response to
post
Egalitarian family structure explains the difference between low (1.5-1.75) and ultra low (sub 1) fertility rates but this wouldn’t even get us back to the us tfr of the 2000s…..
comment in response to
post
It’s really hard to find any tactical fault with the way pelosi and Reid handled 2005-2008 but bush still did a tremendous amount of harm
comment in response to
post
Even perfect opposition can’t prevent a malevolent or incompetent administration from hurting a lot of people, unfortunately
comment in response to
post
Liberals are always saying these language issues don’t matter but I’ve never seen a liberal say “it doesn’t matter so we are happy to surrender the issue”
comment in response to
post
I tend to expect billionaires to have bad politics… I’m assuming the biggest shareholders of chevron, Saudi Aramco, McDonald’s, Walmart, etc all have pretty shit politics, but very few make purchasing decisions based on this
comment in response to
post
To be the core (good) insight of Carter-Clinton-Obama neoliberalism was that government cannot create meaning and purpose in your life. Politics can’t replace family, church, work, community, etc. It seems arnade really hates this idea but it’s unclear what an alternative would be
comment in response to
post
i don’t think having exact parity is necessary, but the current status where high demand occupations and very senior folks can get a 200% pay increase in the private sector has obvious downsides as well (you can’t recruit from the private sector and public servants will see it as a stepping stone…)
comment in response to
post
Yup
comment in response to
post
Honestly the only thing preserving democracy at any time is the willingness of conservative elites not to throw in with anti-democratic populists…
comment in response to
post
Many good things (liberal democracy, free trade, even small amounts of foreign aid) are contingent on bipartisan elite consensus and will not survive if placed on the ballot
comment in response to
post
I hate hegseth but given the territorial issue over Crimea is never likely to be resolved how can nato membership make sense?
comment in response to
post
I think you need to capture some of Bernie’s more feral instincts (feral in the sense they were not checked by the party apparatus). Get some more anti-rich conspiracies out there. It looks like trump is going to fuck up so bad the conspiracy theories might end up being true though
comment in response to
post
This seems less true than ever given who is currently the president
comment in response to
post
2006-08 are arguably the worst elections in recent history for an incumbent party, was that even presaged by a popular movement of any note? iraq war protestors were correct but weren’t really newsworthy by ‘05
comment in response to
post
Jokic in particular is probably the best conditioned center to ever play in the league… his effort level and motor is a significant part of his elite performance
comment in response to
post
I think they kind of take every lesson from the bush administration about frustrating the “reality based community” and apply it to every issue, they just make shit up constantly and dare liberals to keep up
comment in response to
post
I think a lot of this becomes easier when you’re not in power
comment in response to
post
Yeah ‘02-04 was the most shamefully biased media environment I can remember, it was so bad milquetoast liberal Jon Stewart became a liberal icon
comment in response to
post
Control over the oversight committee would be great though it seemed very underutilized in 2019-20
comment in response to
post
Nate silver said a 15% chance of this, if it gets down to 218-217 democrats could get creative in offering something to a moderate republican to flip as well since Harris district house rs are basically doa in 2026 you have to think
comment in response to
post
also living on the 55th floor is a major negative while having an office up there is a huge status symbol
comment in response to
post
cloture Is 50 votes for nominees
comment in response to
post
East Arizona
comment in response to
post
I am no fan of Vance but he would be less likely to give incompetent lunatics important jobs and less likely to engage in fuckery that has truly horrendous tail risks so that’s a trade I’d take.
comment in response to
post
What was pelosis comment in 2005 about a competing proposal for social security privatization? “How’s never for you”
comment in response to
post
If you really want to get crazy with it you can also buy individually wrapped sausages for rice and beans, for home cooked meals these are “expensive” at 1.25 a piece but the meal still comes out to like 3.50 in ingredients vs 12 for chipotle
comment in response to
post
Canned beans are not as good but also fine and you can buy them pre-seasoned
comment in response to
post
Olivia Rodrigo and Sabrina carpenter have a lot of songs about sex but they aren’t especially sexy songs
comment in response to
post
True it has been going up. Though in most circumstances parents will see a big decline when their kids turn 5 (generally when they’re in their 30s) allowing them to save more
comment in response to
post
Haha fair but once you buy a house and have kids the large step changes from your 20s are largely gone… I suppose millennials are right in the thick of these though
comment in response to
post
That but also millennials are at a time in life when they are experiencing increasing salaries but stable expenses
comment in response to
post
Illinois is shrinking which is a much bigger problem than a housing affordability issue
comment in response to
post
Do you think the lack of non political irl community organizations is a supply issue or a demand issue?
comment in response to
post
Yeah but even so how could your car lose that much value? Used teslas are still worth 20-30k so that’s a 50k loan with absolutely nothing paid toward principal??
comment in response to
post
He’s free to clarify and repudiate neo nazis at any time… we’ll see what he does
comment in response to
post
Pennsylvania low numbers are probably mostly a result of low demand, Pittsburgh and Philly have less people than they did in 1990 and the state as a whole has grown very little
comment in response to
post
Sorry went to recently sold and found this one. But even at 500k for normal suburban lots it’s not the super expensive earthquake accommodation that’s driving the affordability issue
comment in response to
post
Or if you just fly from sf to slc… it is just delusional to believe there’s some stark division there. Millions of people going both ways to ski, visit family, do work meetings, etc but we’re supposed to believe many Californians find Utah a dystopian hellscape?
comment in response to
post
I think if you are in media, arts, or political activism you aren’t more likely to say politics matters in where you live but those jobs are disproportionately on nyc and La anyways. I don’t think most civil engineers probably are concerned state politics if they get assigned to the Atlanta office
comment in response to
post
The cost of building a structure is maybe 20% of that 850k number, a .15 acre lot with no building in Redwood City is like 800k. Most of the cost differential is the land… also for the smaller amount you pay in Texas you actually get a newer and larger house on average
comment in response to
post
I mean we also export tons of staple grains to Mexico so a trade war just means lost market share for American farmers and a worse life for Americans…
comment in response to
post
No idea why labor input would’ve gone up so much though
comment in response to
post
Is the fund thing just a result of 2022 being a terrible stock market year so management fees went down a bunch?
comment in response to
post
Yes China is actually unusually stingy with social services even compared to peer middle income countries let alone the usa