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dralanwager.bsky.social
Politics, public opinion and public policy at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. Expect musings, maps and graphs on all the above, mostly. Also, got a book out! Email: [email protected]
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After the AfD's surge on Sunday, far right parties are the most voted-for of any grouping in Europe, for the first time in history: www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

Hi, former White House intern, DNC communications staffer, and re-election team partner here: One does not ‘slip’ into the Oval Office. Does not. Period, ever. That’s not a thing.

Sorry to say but Nick Watt’s tone completely off throughout. And Sarah Smith’s narration bordered on misinformation.

Helpful post explaining some of the (currently being worked on) outstanding technical challenges to turn GP deal on appointments into a functional NHS app that can be universally used with public confidence.

This in turn facilitates the NHS app being used for GP appointments. Sorry for the Panglossian techbro chat, but a genuine point of entry into the NHS in your pocket could be a huge symbol of NHS reform and progress. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

"I'll tell you something that's not so funny. Right now, Assistant Professor Zhu is at home, crying like a little girl!"

At a geeky level, it's interesting how much difference just bolding/capitalising the second part of statement makes - we were taught (@benpageresearch.bsky.social) to avoid "double-barrelled" qs partly for this reason - many people satisfice and only read/properly consider first part

Excellent post from @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social on Con to LD switchers - we all need heuristics to make sense of complex results, but when simplifying sketches curdle into misleading stereotypes then they do more harm than good. A great corrective: jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com/p/2019-conse...

Having driven a surge in support for the Liberals in Canada, President Trump turns his energy to boosting support for the EU.

No such thing as 'St George's Day (or Shakespeare's Birthday) weekend'. But if there were, you could spend it reading the updated paperback version of this - out from @politybooks.bsky.social on 25 April.

Turnout increased in Germany from 75.5 to 82%. Interestingly, this increase had a levelling effect. The lower the turnout was in 2021, the more it rose in 2025 (correlation -.76), and that reduced the standard deviation in turnout from 4 to 2.7%.

In this poll Labour are 'losing' more votes to the Lib Dems than to Reform and the same number to the Greens. (I say losing but it is probably partially a tactical unwind at this point). The Reform lead is at least in part an enthusiasm gap very few 2024 Reform voters are undecided.

Only one poll etc . etc. but can't help pointing out this is the highest Lib Dem rating with YouGov since November 2019.

British Higher Education in full retreat - because no-one will get a grip and show responsibility.

Germany elections: Keir Starmer loses a political soulmate but might gain a more useful ally The election of Friedrich Merz may help the Brexit reset, says @jillongovt.bsky.social www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/germ...

V interesting interview with Sam Fender in the Sunday Times www.thetimes.com/culture/musi...

The youth gender divide is real and important, but it can mask the fact that the populist right is gaining ground among young women as well as young men in many countries (this was also true in the US). AfD tripled their vote share among 18-24 year old men, but the same was true of young women.

This evening. Still a few spaces left if you're quick ukandeu.ac.uk/events/unloc...

Nothing to see here. Just The Spectator parroting the AfD's post-election line-to-take.

Hypothesis: we're still seeing a split in Europe between 'radicals', e.g. Merz warning NATO might vanish by June, and 'engagers', like UK, who think priority is to engage Trump to shape Ukraine diplomacy & keep the US engaged, even if at a lower level of presence and/or commitment. Discuss.

Yeah seems pretty obvious to me that this huge gender divide in the politics of young people is being driven by men's rights / manosphere videos that act as a gateway into alt right politics.

The gender divide among young Germans looks to be entrenched: our pre-election polling found 17% of men under 35 describe themselves as a "supporter" of the AfD (a higher hurdle than vote intention), versus just 6% of young women. institute.global/insights/geo...

This east-west divide might not be merely a legacy of communism. In his The Shortest History of Germany, @jameshawes.bsky.social points out that it dates back to at least the 1500s.

This, via @jamescalbraith.co.uk, is somewhat better, but it still exaggerates the divide by using the same colour for everything above 25%.

The past is never dead. It's not even past.

NEW: updated long-run gap in voting between young men and women in Germany: Gender divide continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung sharply left. www.ft.com/content/29fd...

Let's not just get lost in manosphere ramblings today; let's also think hard about what's pulling young women to the left and (a) facilitate more of that and (b) build bridges so others feel like it's an attractive alternative

AfD overwhelmingly won votes from non-voters and the centre-right. This is a standard pattern. It is a myth that the radical right are mainly winning disaffected centre-left voters.

Nice one. The median voter of each party *by population density*. The Left‘s swing to being a party of city dwellers is quite striking.

The gender gap amongst young voters is very real

🇩🇪 Germany: one nation, two societies.

institute.global/insights/geo...

Typically interesting from @benshimshon.bsky.social (& @stevevr.bsky.social) Do voters care about manifesto promises? Yes... But Labour's opponents care more than its supporters For the latter, feeling positive change is more important than campaign pledges www.politicshome.com/news/article...

Macmillan's advice to an undergraduate William Hague. All the best lines from the latter's installation as Oxford chancellor here: www.spectator.co.uk/article/hagu...

Anyways, so this is whose podcast Maurice Glasman is happy to appear on. And yet people think he should have some voice in Labour politics?

I'm very much looking forward to dissecting the political economy of the current UK government alongside this truly stellar lineup. All are welcome to this online webinar! Please do sign up via the link in the thread below.

A fun stat from me in this week's Economist. Since the election, right-wing Britons have been turning to e-petitions: www.economist.com/britain/2025... When you're out of power, slacktivism is cathartic!