fplfutbolmetrix.bsky.social
FPL and SerieAFantasy account. Two top 2k finishes, once in distant FPL prehistory, once in 2023-2024. #AnalyticsFC, FPLReview Elite 1000
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#SerieAFantasy GW23: 61 all out, OR 109-->115. Passing on Retegui+Zaccagni in previous GW proving to be very costly
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If Ful-Tot is in 25, 33 would have only two teams doubling, NEW and CRY (unless some of the GW34 blanks slot into it). Seems manageable.
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TC24 on Salah and then AM25 (after knowing whether DGW25 is on) is also an option.
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It would be close, but keep in mind that DGW25 implies that Tottenham advances to CC final, so no LIV blank in 29, no LIV double in 33. You lose a big chunk of EV relative to TC24 on Salah.
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Optimal AM strategy very team dependent:
TC still available, already 3 Liv in squad: TC24 on Salah, AM in 31 or 35/36
TC still available, only 2 Liv in squad (or 3 LIV and lots of FTs) : maybe AM24 if provisional announcement of DGW25
TC played already: AM24 defo an option
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Sharp-eyed managers will have noticed that there is some discrepancy between my EV for GW24 and Review's EV (mine is a bit lower on average). In this case, I would trust Review's numbers (based on betting odds, I think). But model is OK for predicting likelihood of table bonus in future GWs
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#SerieAFantasy GW22: 59 all out, OR 86 --> 100. 12 week green streak over, we go again in 23
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GW23: 54 all out, 1.6M -->1.8M. When is it gonna end, Robbie?
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#SerieAFantasy GW21: 78 all out, OR 93-->86. Still slowly climbing.
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GW22: 48 all out, OR, 1.64M --> 1.58M. New season objective: top 400K, roughly the average of my last 5 casual seasons before becoming an engaged manager 😔
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GW21: 61 all out, 1.5M --> 1.6M. This season is humbling.
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#SerieAFantasy GW20. 123 all out, OR 132-->93. A pretty mediocre DGW, but good enough for another green arrow (11th in a row) and inside top 100. We move
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#SerieAFantasy GW20. 123 all out, OR 132-->93. A pretty mediocre DGW, but good enough for another green arrow (11th in a row) and inside top 100. We move
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GW20: 64(-4)=60 all out. OR 1.4M -->1.5M. Still meandering aimlessly in the mid 1M ranks. Would be nice to get some players that actually do points. We go again in 21.
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#SerieAFantasy GW19: 65(-5)=60, OR 173-->132. Not the best of weeks, but enough people were not paying attention to the schedule to get a decent green. We move
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Of course, everything is subject to change as the table evolves. I will hopefully update the spreadsheet after every GW. Happy planning!
(7/7)
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You could of course swerve to Arsenal (at home vs WHU), but there may be better options
(6/.
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Key reason is that there aren't that many appealing matchups in GW26. These are the best two.
(5/.
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Based on the current spreadsheet, I'm not too sanguine on AM24/25
(4/.
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I think one should want to jump on the orange matchups: these are typically ones where the gap in rank between the teams is not large, and the lower ranked team plays at home. Chance for high EV!
(3/.
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Dark Green 🟩🟩: Strong favorites with high EV with no bonus
Light green🟢⚪️: High EV with no bonus, and very likely that bonus will be active
Orange🟠🟠: High EV with bonus, and somewhat likely that bonus will be active
(2/.
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The key point of the spreadsheet is to identify which games are likely to yield a large AM EV. These are highlighted in color in the spreadsheet.
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GW19: 87 all out, OR 1.7M --> 1.4M. Small steps, I guess. We move.
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#SerieAFantasy GW18: 69 all out, OR 185-->173. Kean benching hurts, but a green is a green. We move.
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GW18: 54 all out, 1.5M-->1.7M. Digging ever deeper, contemplating a big hit to get rid of some of the garbage polluting my team
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Thoughts and feedback welcome. Enjoy!
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Orange: expected points conditional on bonus >8, probability of bonus between 0.3 and 0.7
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Light green: expected points conditional on bonus > 8, and probability of bonus >0.7 (Example: Crystal Palace v AVL in GW27)
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Now with three color codes for targetable matches: dark green = strong favorites at home with Expected points conditional on no bonus > 8 (Example: Chelsea va SOU in GW27)
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#SerieAFantasy GW17: 74 all out, OR 217-->185. Was hoping for more after the Rrahmani early goal, but still a green, and first time in top 200. We move.
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GW17: 72 all out, 1.47M --> 1.54M. Salah and Solanke transform what would have been an anti-FPL Hall-of-Fame-worthy gameweek into just a regular boring red arrow. We go again in 18.
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I will hopefully updated it every week as we get more information about likely league positions.
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The link to the spreadsheet (pre-GW17 results) is here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
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#SerieAFantasy GW16: 76 all out, OR 341-->217. A strong week, despite captain fail. We move.
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GW16: 54 all out, OR 1.6M -->1.5M (assuming no more bonus point/phantom assist changes). Green arrow, I guess?
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But there could be significant gains to be made by manager-hopping🤔
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Unsurprisingly, the highest EVs are attained when underperforming "big" teams (TOT, MUN, NEW) are at home versus overperforming smaller teams (NFO, BRE, BHA). But things can and will change as the table changes.
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Results here, sorted in descending order by home team effective EV: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...