hunterdouglas.bsky.social
PhD candidate studying climate change emergence. Ex Tonkin+Taylor, SUTD, MIT, Geosyntec, Duke. All views are just, like, my opinion, man.
58 posts
107 followers
162 following
Getting Started
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Having had a proper read of the paper, it’s good work and is just on the detectability of the warming signal (not the level of warming as I assumed). Choice of year for baseline tends to be either based on availability of observations or when emissions were low, and this prob wouldn’t affect either
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Fair call, and I mostly agree. I guess I meant in the context of public-facing information, Paris targets, etc. I should probably read the paper fully before guessing what might change as a result.
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More of a personal opinion than a scientific one, but it seems unlikely to me because a) this is one study, regardless of how good it is, and b) suddenly saying that there’s more warming than we thought and that we need to adjust all our numbers might erode public trust.
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Seconding The Years of Rice and Salt as an excellent alternate history read for this idea!
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What a legend. O trilogy was my jam. I always thought Philip Pullman stole the idea of a society of talking polar bears from him.
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Look up William Nordhaus
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All those people won’t be exposed to extreme heat if they simply go inside. Problem solved.
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Love Bonestorm
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Most AI marketing is vague promises to fix whatever people care about. If SNL taught me anything, it’s that Californians care a lot about traffic.
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I brought my copy to the Christchurch show and got it signed by all the other Fish members and Josh Thomson. Guess that’s rarer, at least.
Loved the book, btw!
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Hey Andrew - fair call on the need to be careful with this. Totally agree the Earth as a whole won't be back in that PI range for several millennia. Keen to understand more where you're coming from on the rates/amount of warming as I'm doing some follow-up work atm. If you have time pls reach out!
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The implication is that overshooting a temperature target before returning to it won't necessarily result in the same climate as before, depending on where you live. 3/3
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We found that northern Eurasia does so in the most models (which we link to non-linear changes in the hydrological and carbon cycles) as well as a patch off the Antarctic coast (likely linked to meltwater). Parts of North America and East Asia aren't far behind. 2/3
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What if Wakefield Street had a ship parked in the middle of it?
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Not yet. The target in the Paris Agreement is for long-term average temperatures, like 20-30 years. Of course we don’t know what the next 10 years will be like yet, so if it’s a centred rolling average then we have to estimate, and our best guess is that 2025 will be cooler (thanks to La Nina).
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Plus it’s intended for long-term averages, not individual years. We’ve got like another decade of bad news coverage about crossing 1.5… for real this time. I really fear this will lower trust in climate science for much of the public
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I read this as Pepcorn, the snack invented by Brian David Gilbert. www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fG8...
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My personal take is that the legalisation of gambling goes too far in the UK towards enabling harm by being too accessible and I prefer a more tightly regulated market. (I'm in New Zealand, where we've been more tightly regulated but are becoming slightly less so.)
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"should be... willing" is bold phrasing. I think there's an implied omission there about "and making public statements to that effect"
This more or less is already the case in the UK, just what you can actually bet on is at the discretion of the (licensed) bookie - they get to make the odds.
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That'd be an instant rejection in my books.
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Rutherford himself famously thought the idea of making viable nuclear power reactors was "moonshine"
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Putting aside climate for a moment, I would back this policy being implemented here in New Zealand for the noise reduction alone!
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historians, indigenous culture experts, and so many more professionals besides just us physical scientists. That’s why today’s Marsden Fund announcement is so disappointing. To not see the value of the humanities in solving our biggest problems is wilful ignorance at best and malice at worst. 3/3
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How do we best communicate climate-related risk to vulnerable communities? How do we ensure community buy-in for adaptation solutions? How do we efficiently invest in the low-carbon transition? These are social science questions, & they’re central to tackling climate change. We need sociologists 2/3
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Climate Town recently put out an excellent video that recaps the whole saga in a this-would-be-hilarious-if-it-wasn't-so-awful way: youtu.be/jucDFrO89Ko?...
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I learned from a Corridor Crew video that the noise diffusion technique used to generate it means that every image has exactly 50% average brightness, a light pixel for every dark pixel. So the end result will always look overly balanced and kinda boring once you’ve seen a few.
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I have a part time job in corporate and use a page in a notebook to collect all these horrid corporatese phrases. They use verbs as nouns and nouns as verbs. I’ve separately heard people say, “we’re looking to solution this” and, “I don’t have a solve for it”. Drives me bonkers.
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PhD student here. Zotero works great for me - browser plugin is a must. I store all my papers in a Dropbox folder and link Zotero to that so I can access them from either my desktop or laptop (both need to be logged in to Dropbox).
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The dream. Slim pickings for bundles like that here in New Zealand
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Patrick H Willems on YouTube has a great video about his hatred for “content”, particularly as applied to film.
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This laughably stupid long tunnel idea has made it abundantly clear that Simeon Brown’s only experience of Wellington is the car ride between the airport and Parliament, and that he lacks the imagination to consider anybody else’s experience of the city.
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I agree with Dan - 3-4 years is doable for a research master's grad but could be a stretch for a lot of others. Source: me, a master's grad currently in the 4th year of a PhD that I'll finish this year.
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The Last Day by Andrew Hunter Murray was a little pulpy but great fun
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Do iiiiiit!
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I'd love to see something like a carbon takeback/storage obligation implemented: www.cell.com/joule/fullte...
Put the onus on FF companies to actually sequester, store, and monitor CO2 in order to be allowed to sell their products. I think it'd just speed up the transition through price increases.
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Not sure if this is in scope for what you're planning, but: "what accounts for differences in climate risk assessment (e.g. for physical damage to regions/properties) between data providers, and how do you approach assessing which provider is fit-for-purpose?" - comes up in my private sector work.
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Sounds like it belongs on Spurious Correlations: www.tylervigen.com/spurious-cor...
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Ted Chiang is a gem. If you haven't yet read his short story collections, they're well worth your time!
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I agree with the overall argument, but the authors didn’t put in much effort to access data beyond 2100. For SSP1-2.6, there are at least 10 models with data out to 2300 accessible via ESGF, as opposed to the 2 they found on AWS.
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Thanks for citing our paper! Great post, as always :)
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Glad you enjoyed our country, Dan. Please come back someday!
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This Windows bar doesn’t have a firewall! Enjoy your viruses, ladies