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jmeltonwx.bsky.social
Computer and Weather Enthusiast. | Chief Forecaster for Southern Michigan Weather | Born and raised in the Great Lakes state.
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Portions of far southwest Lower Michigan are in a Marginal (Level 1/5) risk for severe weather Friday into Friday night, with far southwest Berrien County in a Slight (Level 2/5) risk.

Confidence continues to increase in a potentially significant #severeweather sequence this weekend across the Lower/Mid-MS valley into the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic region. All hazards (wind/hail/tornadoes) are possible at this juncture. Continue to monitor forecast updates. #weather

There might be a lot to be upset about, and things may seem dark… but the kindness and generosity of people will never cease to humble and astound me. Thank you.

Been sitting a while trying to come up with what to write regarding today's firings within NOAA, including those within the National Weather Service (NWS). To those affected, I am deeply sorry. Know that your accomplishments are greatly appreciated, no matter what is said to the contrary.

Severe weather chances ramp up again heading into next week across much of the southeastern Lower 48 and vicinity. A thread 🧵

Forecasting this system has probably accelerated my balding by 10 years, but now its time to let it do its thing and see what happens.

If I end up bald sooner that I anticipated, forecasting systems like this with wild model trend swings are partially to blame.

Yes, we've seen the new computer model guidance this evening. While it certainly looks concerning in terms of potential impacts from this weekend's expected winter weather, we focus on trends—and so far, this appears to be a one-off suite.

Michigan forecasters looking at 00z model guidance for this weekend #miwx

REPOST if you support our federal workforce and know how dedicated they are to their jobs. Show them you appreciate them!

Laying off meteorologists at NWS, which was already dealing with staffing issues, is a threat to public safety heading into severe weather season. No doubt everyone will give their best, but this adds stress to workers at wfo’s. There’s so many bright young Mets in our field. I’m so sorry.

If you’re an NWS met who will find themselves unfairly and unjustly looking for work, first let me say it’s terrible and wrong. And I hope you end up back helping keep us all safer and informed again sooner than later. This too shall pass (I hope).

👀

Our final snowfall forecast is in as the winter storm approaches the region this afternoon. We've increased totals to the 8-12" range for areas near the Lake Huron shoreline, where lake enhancement is likely. This aligns with the Winter Storm Warning issued earlier this morning.

A winter storm appears likely to bring potentially significant snowfall to much of the region from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Based on computer guidance consensus, snowfall totals of 6 inches or more seems like a safe bet across most of the area.

Initial thoughts on who might see what with the incoming midweek storm system.

Enough consistency has appeared in computer models to allow our first forecast for potential precipitation types for the midweek storm system. Some north-south shifts remain possible as new guidance continues to come in. Mainly snow is now anticipated from the US-10 corridor and points north.

It hurts my heart today to announce that my stepdad went home early this morning to be with my momma. 💔 Keep on eye on her and Grandpa Ben up there. The rest of us have down here covered.

⚠️Snow squalls will be possible this afternoon and especially into the evening hours of today. Snow squalls are intense bursts of snow that when combined with the gusty winds in place today could lead to whiteout conditions and rapidly deteriorating road conditions.

The backlash has caught up to Allen Media. WTVA parent company reverses decision; Severe Weather Authority to remain www.wtva.com/news/local/w...

Horrific scenes from the Los Angeles suburbs as multiple wildfires continue to burn. Fires are spreading rapidly thanks to the very high winds over the region (gusts within the 60-100+ MPH range!) PLEASE heed evacuation orders from local officials.

Former President Jimmy Carter has died at age 100. What a life. What a legacy. Thank you, Mr. President.

⚠️Regional severe weather outbreak likely today across the Lower Mississippi Valley All hazards are on the table, including the potential for several long-track strong (EF-2+) tornadoes. Definitely a day to be #weatheraware!

New post now live on the blog talking about the increasingly likely significant lake-effect snow event for the middle of the week along with some very cold air moving in as well. southmiwx.com/2024/1...

Our clipper system moves in late tonight into Wednesday morning. This will be followed by potentially significant lake-effect snow and gusty winds Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest details now live on our blog! #miwx #southmiwx southmiwx.com/2024/1...

Paging Jim Cantore on line 1... 🌩️❄️ #miwx #wxsky

Lake-effect snow continues today and only will increase in intensity towards tonight and into Monday. > Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM for Barry, Calhoun, and Kalamazoo Co. 1-4" of snow possible through this evening.

Lock Screen thread

1120 AM - Heads up Southeast Lower! Some of you may be looking at the radar on your phone app and/or radar websites and noticing a lack of snow showing up in Southeast Lower. Snow is still ongoing across portions of Southeast Lower.

Michigan drivers as soon as the snow starts sticking...

Fresh snowfall forecast for the lake-effect snow event set to begin thanksgiving night and is forecast to last at least through the holiday weekend, and even into portions of early next week.

We’re still monitoring snow chances for the Thanksgiving holiday. We created a graphical summary of what some of the major computer models we look at is projecting.

A little Python magic later 👀

Locally moderate to heavy snow ongoing in Southwest Lower just after 2 PM. Visibility is reduced and roadways are beginning to be snow covered. Accidents are being reported along Interstate 94 in northern Berrien county. Use caution if traveling within this region. #miwx #southmiwx

Netflix servers tonight

🐾 #wxskypets

An elevated potential for #severeweather is anticipated across portions of the southern Plains on Sunday, particularly Sunday night, and continuing into Monday. As this is still several days out, adjustments are likely as new data becomes available. Monitor for updates! #wxsky

Archival data of KHTX (left) vs. my team's X-band radar (right) from the Prospect, TN EF-2 on 5/8/24, in which R = Zdr, G = dBZ, B = CC. X-band was scanning the tornadic vortex at 256ft compared to KHTX at 5400ft. Zdr arc was very intense and omnipresent @ this time near tgen as seen on X-band.

Old Man Winter on the doorstep? 👀

Bluesky stuns in new App Store ranking