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mukavakurpitsa.bsky.social
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When Russia invaded Ukraine, Finland’s then-president Niinistö said that the masks had fallen. If anyone was still clinging onto some kind of hope of Trump coming around on Ukraine, this disgrace of a press conference should make everything clear now. Trump is anti-Ukraine. Pro-Russia.

❗️Journalist: What if Russia breaks the ceasefire? 🤯 Trump: What if a bomb falls on your head?

"Wake-Up Moment For Europe"™

The Oval Office ambush is wake up call #742 to Europe: America doesn’t have your back & you are out of time. Seize Russian assets in the EU, embargo Russian energy, allow Ukraine to hit targets on Russian territory with our missiles, & prepare new air defense & troop commitments.

As hurtful as it sounds, the United States is siding with Russia by demanding Ukrainian resources and threatening with action for refusal to comply. We are being robbed by the world's two largest nuclear powers. Welcome back to the 21st-century Molotov-Ribbentrop reality

Observing the Finnish Army train with Jack Watling. Thanks to the Karelia Brigade for hosting us and to Finnish colleagues for the thoughtful exchanges we had this week.

»Erstens ist [Trump] ein sehr leichtes Opfer. Er ist intellektuell nicht besonders gut ausgestattet, hat weder historische noch regionale Kenntnisse. Zweitens leben Trump und seine Mitstreiter wie die Nationale Geheimdienstdirektorin, Tulsi Gabbard, oder ... 1/2

This picture probably perfectly reflects the latest scandalous news…

🇪🇺🇺🇦 European government officials are working on a new, comprehensive package to increase defense spending and support Kyiv, - Berliner Zeitung 🇩🇪 Baerbock hinted that it could be ~€700 billion: "We will launch a large package that has never been seen on this scale before."

Brief thoughts on a European force for Ukraine. I think there is a degree of requirements paralysis. It doesn’t have to be hundreds of thousands of troops, or cover a 1200km contact line. Where it is deployed, and in what role, is more important than the overall size. 1/

Thanks a lot Scholz. I don’t want to believe that even a sizeable minority of Germans inherently are unsupportive and this public mood could have been avoided with less hesitant leadership and better communication. But now, the main problem in Germany aren’t even incompetent politicians but voters.

Chamberlain 1938 Trump 2025

Good discussion on Foreign Affairs podcast. www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/put...

There’s a bad conspiracy theory going around that Bob Woodward claims in his book ‘War’ that the AFU allowed 30,000 Russian troops to quietly withdraw from Kherson due to US pressure on Kiyv. It’s false on all counts. 1/

In 2022 when the German parliament agreed to keep the nuclear power plants working for 6 more months I thought it was nonsensical as they’d never manage without them after the 6 months and would have to prolong it again. But I forgot then that Germany’s gonna be Germany

There is also a RF offensive under way in Kursk, taking place simultaneously as the AFU operation, and possibly in response to it. Suffice it to say the situation is dynamic and it will take time figure out what's really taking place. Early reports tend to be wrong.

For a Ukrainian perspective on some of the current manpower, force management, and C2 challenges I would suggest this article. I don't share all the views voiced here, but I think this is a useful analysis to consider. euromaidanpress.com/2025/01/03/w...

A long thread on the war and the current situation. Although the worst-case scenarios didn’t materialize in 2024, it was the most difficult period since spring 2022. There were positive developments, and bright spots, but the current trajectory is negative. 1/

To fully understand the current state of the war, it's not enough to focus on arrows and units on a map. The real story lies in the deeper, systemic challenges. In an analytical piece for @euromaidanpress.bsky.social, I offer more comprehensive assessment: euromaidanpress.com/2025/01/03/w...

TWZ translation here of a good interview. www.twz.com/air/ukrainia...

🇬🇪President Salome Zourabichvili called on citizens to gather at the presidential palace at 10 AM on Dec. 29. At 11 AM, GD plans the inauguration of Mikheil Kavelashvili, as President. Zourabichvili vows to remain in office until new elections are held, despite threats of arrest. #GeorgiaProtests

⚡️North Korea preparing to ship more troops, drones to Russia, Seoul says. North Korea is preparing to deploy additional troops and weapons, including kamikaze drones, to aid Russia in its full-scale war against Ukraine, the South Korean military said on Dec. 23.

Interesting article. www.ft.com/content/e241...

"Hungary believes that sanctions against Russia should be reviewed as soon as possible and in the most comprehensive manner," Orban stated. The Kremlin's agent has no shame in openly backing his patron.

⚡️Ukraine won't extend Russian gas transit, Zelensky confirms. “We will not engage in extending the transit of Russian gas. We will not give (Russia) the opportunity to earn additional billions on our blood,” Zelensky said.

🇬🇧🇺🇦 The UK will begin delivering tens of thousands of drones to Ukraine starting in January, Deputy Defence Minister Luke Pollard announced in the House of Commons. www.gov.uk/government/s...

NEW: Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces by threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas. (1/3) More on Syria: isw.pub/IranUpdate12...

Brief updated thoughts on RF in Syria. Russian navy seems to be parked 8-13km off Tartus concerned about ship vulnerability. Russian forces are assembling in Khmeimim airbase for what looks like a drawdown with several An-124 having made pick ups there in recent days. 1/

“Rebel sources have told New Lines that there were several factors behind the regime’s implosion in Aleppo. One was the penetration of a high-level security meeting in Aleppo, during which an Iranian brigadier general & several Syrian officers were killed” newlinesmag.com/reportage/th...

Having worked on #Syria full-time since the crisis began nearly 14yrs ago, there really is no understating how remarkable the losses imposed on #Assad's regime have been over the past week. A large reason for this lies with #HTS — a 🧵:

The loss of Khmeimim Air Base would have profound operational consequences. This strategic hub is essential for sustaining Russia’s power projection across the M-E, Africa, and South and Central America. Its loss would disrupt the logistics supporting military aircraft transiting to these regions.

Appreciate @hoanssolo.bsky.social terrific review of #WorldOnTheBrink "One of the highlights of Alperovitch and Graff’s book is their invasion scenario set in 2028, which envisions a fullscale military exercise turning into a full-scale invasion of the island" www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

This is pretty remarkable. ‘ "We’ve had several incidents in the Baltic Sea [with Russia] that escalated to warning shots being fired into the air and water," Pistorius explained.’ Via @auonsson.bsky.social ‬⁩ www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...

Big news: This week* the Oryx Blog will have a new article and a new list (with the list of equipment losses being built by @elmustek) - documenting equipment losses during the Syrian rebel offensive and regime collapse.

In Tblisi, Georgia, the situation is getting more grim by the minute. Protestors are now using molotov cocktails to attack security forces.

It looks like the SAA has re-entered Hama and took control of the majority of the city. Heavy equipment can be seen.

If early reports of opposing forces' successes against the Assad regime are true, with Hama fallen and forces moving toward Homs, it means Russia’s key assets - Tartus naval base and Khmeimim airbase could be cut off. Both are crucial for Russia’s presence in the Middle East and Africa

Free RC episode is out. Rob Lee joins me to talk about the current situation in the war, latest events, the role of technology with a focus on drones. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/2024/11/tech...

I have increasing doubts that Hegseth will be confirmed. "The defense of Europe is not our problem; been there, done that, twice," Hegseth writes, adding: "Nato is a relic and should be scrapped and remade in order for freedom to be truly defended." www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024...

⚡️Trump's top security pick calls for end to escalation in Ukraine. "We need to restore deterrence, restore peace, and get ahead of this escalation ladder, rather than responding to it," Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security adviser, said.

⚠️ “The two damaged data cables in the Baltic Sea between Finland and Germany were no accident—it was sabotage. I don’t believe they were damaged by anchors,” said German Defense Minister Pistorius.

“If we are talking about real security guarantees, it means that there will be a just peace. Then we are talking about Nato membership,” said Tsahkna. “But without the US it is impossible. And then we are talking about any form [of guarantee] in the meaning of boots on the ground.”