tboeggild.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

A slightly positive 🧵 in a dark time. Research on dictatorships and democratic backsliding suggests that the American experiment with authoritarianism could be brief. There are five reasons for this:

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Our research on Need for Chaos was focused on how some voters wanted to watch the world burn: www.cambridge.org/core/journal... With DOGE it now seems to be official government strategy from Trump & Musk But the goal seems the same: Burning down existing structures for selfish status gain

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

New fun pub - The Authentic A**hole (particularly proud of getting title accepted) ✅ Politicians viewed as authentic when they stick to their positions despite pressure ✅ True even when voters disagree with those positions ✅ Authenticity translates to electoral advantage tinyurl.com/25us7y7z

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

"Why parties can benefit from promoting occupational diversity in legislatures" is out @ajpseditor.bsky.social @miacosta.bsky.social and I describe an incentive-compatible mechanism for parties to recruit candidates with different occupational backgrounds. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Those with a strong national identity can still feel unseen in society. Versteegen’s new study argues that support for Trump may stem from individuals—particularly White, male, and Christian—who feel their background goes unrecognized. Read more: doi.org/10.1111/pops...

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Is there public backlash after marginalized groups secure policy gains? For both gay rights and immigrant rights, the evidence suggests NO backlash. But guess what? Elite cues matter. Sounds about right. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1... onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

Trump's approval ratings are now -8 with the WaPo/Ipsos. This is before most of the impacts of the slashing of federal government and its economic consequences start to be felt.

submitted 7 days ago • 14 comments

Trump's approval is down to 44 from 47 on inauguration day. As a frame of reference, Biden was at 56 at this point in 2021.

submitted 7 days ago • 1 comment

Last year, we published a paper showing that AI models can "debunk" conspiracy theories via personalized conversations. That paper raised a major question: WHY are the human<>AI convos so effective? In a new working paper, we have some answers. TLDR: facts osf.io/preprints/ps...

submitted 9 days ago • 19 comments

Big fan of Paper Picnic 🧺 Every Friday night, it pulls new articles from over 60 political science & economics journals. If you sign up to the mailing list, you receive a weekly email with a list of all new papers, sorted by journal. Excellent work, @moritzmarbach.bsky.social! paper-picnic.com

submitted 7 days ago • 2 comments

👀New preprint! In 3 prereg experiments we study how engagement-based algorithms amplify ingroup, moral and emotional (IME) content in ways that disrupt social norm learning (and test one solution!) w/ @joshcjackson.bsky.social and my amazing lab managers @merielcd.bsky.social & Silvan Baier 🧵👇

submitted 13 days ago • 2 comments

Federal civil servants are disproportionately Democrats & don't typically shift based on the party of the President. Ideological misalignment may negatively affect performance: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

submitted 12 days ago • 2 comments

Not only have we now lost the generation that fought in WW2, we have lost most of those who were children during the war, who remembered rationing and the collective struggle to make the world a better, more peaceful, place. Collapse of solidarity enables the rise of assertive right wing politics.

submitted 13 days ago • 25 comments

Urban–rural cleavages are seen as a defining political divide. But does this polarization hold worldwide? My new working paper tests this question using an original dataset of granular, geocoded election returns from 106 countries (polling station-level in 70). (1/8)

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

Do citizens stereotype Muslims as inherently homophobic? In a new @bjpols.bsky.social paper w/ @bertous.bsky.social & @michaelhunklinger.bsky.social we answer this question using a double-list experiment across 🇬🇧 🇺🇸 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 doi.org/10.1017/S000... Spoiler: Yes. 🧵

submitted 13 days ago • 5 comments

Our article 'A Crisis of Political Trust?' led by @viktorv.bsky.social is now out in @bjpols.bsky.social! We use >3,000 surveys in 143 countries between 1958 and 2019, finding that trust in representative institutions has generally been declining in recent decades. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

submitted 15 days ago • 6 comments

The 'feeling' that X under Musk is a different place than before is quantified in this new study titled 'Substantial Hate' 1️⃣ hate speech up to 50% higher; 2️⃣ hate speech increase persistent; 3️⃣ no reduction in inauthentic accounts #commsky @polcomm.bsky.social journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

submitted 14 days ago • 12 comments

NEW - The Spillover of the US Capitol Insurrection: Reducing Expressed Support for Domestic Far-Right Parties - cup.org/3WZu4zf - @chankaming.bsky.social "This article studies the spillover of a prototype of such coup attempts - the January 6th Capitol insurrection." #OpenAccess #Jan6

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

Fascinating new findings: Our stereotypes of successful leaders focus on agency, dominance, etc. However, our real preferences for leaders are communal; we want leaders who are compassionate, fair, etc.

submitted 16 days ago • 2 comments

Sneak preview of something useful that I'm working on in the hope that enough of you are enthusiastic that I actually manage to finish it. Features nice plots too! TL;DR: Every time you dichotomised some continuous data, it was probably fine.

submitted 16 days ago • 1 comment

Opposition mobilizing in the streets can spur regime change via different channels such as revolutions or coups. But also indirectly through pushing OR enabling sitting regime elites to change the regime «from within» in (very!) different manners. @vldjuve.bsky.social and my new JCR article👇

submitted 16 days ago • 2 comments

💸 Paying people to #vaccinate sounds smart... but it didn’t work. 🚫 No effect on vaccination rates. 🏠 Worse: people at the same address (who didn’t get paid) were less likely to get boosted. ⚠️ Incentives can backfire. #BehavioralScience jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... @sebjilke.bsky.social

submitted 16 days ago • 1 comment

More than 50% of the public now think Brexit was "Wrong", and the gap between whose who think it was "Wrong" vs. "Right" is now 25%. => the room for manoeuvre in their "reset" of the UK's relationship with the EU is probably larger than Starmer & co. think

submitted 17 days ago • 6 comments

BREAKING: 22 states sue NIH over Trump administration's new 15% cap on overhead for federal research grants. Suit filed federal court in Boston contends lifesaving research 'will grind to a halt' under the policy. Doc: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

submitted 17 days ago • 65 comments

New WP with @vincentab.bsky.social @ryancbriggs.net. We use LLMs and RAs to track publication trends in polisci. Here’s how subfields have changed in AJPS and JOP osf.io/v7fe8

submitted 17 days ago • 5 comments

Our snap judgements of people’s facial traits (not states) bias our understanding of their thoughts and feelings in daily interactions, research by @chujunlin.bsky.social et al suggests:

submitted 18 days ago • 0 comments

"The United States is in a constitutional crisis" Agree: 54% Disagree: 27% Unsure: 19% YouGov / Feb 6, 2025 / n=1106

submitted 19 days ago • 659 comments

Voters reward politicians who sponsor bills they agree with that have no chance of passage: preprints.apsanet.org/engage/api-g...

submitted 18 days ago • 0 comments

Extremely happy that my first single-authored paper is now published (open access) at @EJPRjournal: “Asymmetric backlash against structural economic change: the electoral consequences of the coal phase-out in Germany” Here's a summary thread... 1/n

submitted 21 days ago • 4 comments

🚨BREAKING. From a program officer at the National Science Foundation, a list of keywords that can cause a grant to be pulled. I will be sharing screenshots of these keywords along with a decision tree. Please share widely. This is a crisis for academic freedom & science.

submitted 24 days ago • 1328 comments

🚨 Happy to see one of my PhD papers out at JEPOP 📚 I examine whether MPs' attention to local issues in parliamentary activities affects their re-election chances in party-centred contexts www.tandfonline.com/eprint/G2HVG... Ungated version here: eavigano.github.io/papers/jepop...

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

Delighted to see this coming out in @thejop.bsky.social. Some basic science that for data reasons was never done before. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...

submitted 23 days ago • 6 comments

Ruralites dislike urbanites - but not vice versa. This paper by @alinazumbrunn.bsky.social investigates affective polarization among ruralites, suburbanites & urbanites in 🇨🇭. doi.org/10.1080/0140... #polisky #academicsky

submitted 23 days ago • 0 comments

Online first: "Growing polarisation: ideology and attitudes towards climate change" by @hildecoffe.bsky.social @samcrawley.bsky.social & Josh Givens doi.org/10.1080/0140... #polisky #academicsky

submitted 38 days ago • 0 comments

Why do people fear crime? Because politicians stoke this fear, independently of actual crime rates. New research article that uses cross-country ESS data and German SOEP data, with Georg Wenzelburger in West European Politics @wepsocial.bsky.social

submitted 33 days ago • 0 comments

Amerikanske politologer er - forståeligt - i alarm. Der sker voldsomme ting i det amerikanske demokrati i disse dage, og det rækker langt langt videre end toldmure. Politiske fyringer, forsøg på at overtage budgetmæssig kontrol og massiv datahøst af private info. Vær opmærksomme, #dkmedier

submitted 25 days ago • 2 comments

Just to review: 1. A coup has not yet occurred. A coup (or a “self-coup”) would entail Trump shutting down Congress or canceling elections. 2. Preparations for a coup are in place as Trump replaces FBI agents. 3. If a coup occurs, it is likely in 2026 when Trump refuses to recognise elections.

submitted 25 days ago • 9 comments

Public opinion takes time to respond even to major events. It could be a few more weeks before we see whether there has been any fallout from recent events...

submitted 27 days ago • 6 comments

Online/open access in @polanalysis.bsky.social w/ @willrhobbs.bsky.social: a theory and method for inferring attitudes in open-ended survey responses www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

submitted 28 days ago • 3 comments

#OpenAccess from our new issue - Local Newspaper Decline and Political Polarization – Evidence from a Multi-Party Setting - cup.org/3PJGKpJ - @fabioellger.bsky.social, @hannohilbig.bsky.social, @riazsascha.bsky.social & Philipp Tillmann

submitted 27 days ago • 0 comments

a new version of our fancy manuscript is online! we argue that an innocent looking claim like "20% of citizens reduced their support for the Cigarette Smoking Men" is a composite of three unobserved variables--blame measurement error!--& competing models often explain the same data: osf.io/rhf4q

submitted 28 days ago • 1 comment

Do extreme protest tactics help climate movement? New study surveyed 8,001 French citizens for “effects of exposure to four protest actions with different degrees of extremity.” Found “relative to controls, extreme protest actions reduced support for the activist group…” osf.io/preprints/so...

submitted 28 days ago • 3 comments

Our paper on how plant disease pandemic destroying olive groves in 🇮🇹 fuelled far right support by activating local community narrative of state neglect forthcoming @apsrjournal.bsky.social 🧵 below ⬇️ For nerds: also presents research design for combing causal inference with ethnographic research

submitted 29 days ago • 2 comments

People believe richer others enjoy psychological experiences (eg visiting a park or attending a show) less than poorer others, inferred from a lay belief we all must satisfy our physical needs first. Both are wrong, study by @jennygin18.bsky.social et al suggests: https://buff.ly/4aPefkt

submitted 32 days ago • 1 comment

🗳️ Do voters punish or reward leaders during crises? A @pnas.org study across 16 countries during COVID-19 shows voters hold governments accountable for health and economic responses - benchmarked both domestically and globally. 🔗 doi.org/10.1073/pnas... #Politics #COVID19 🧪

submitted 33 days ago • 1 comment

In happy news, our paper, "Thinking about God increases intergroup prosociality even when conflict is salient", is now out in GPIR! Particularly excited that this paper includes two amazing Fijian collaborators who played integral roles in leading fieldwork! journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

submitted 33 days ago • 4 comments

This is the most fundamental insight of modern political science, and one that’s shared across the subfields. Parchment institutions are, at best, focal points—do not think that they are independent constraints on anything.

submitted 33 days ago • 4 comments

Some interesting-for-survey-researchers new papers in the latest PSRM. First, does survey mode affect satisfaction with democracy? Consistent with previous studies on different topic, web respondents are more negative www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

submitted 33 days ago • 3 comments

#OpenAccess from our new issue - When Group Appeals Backfire: Explaining the Asymmetric Effects of Place-Based Appeals - cup.org/4hsHP1f - @lhaffert.bsky.social, Tabea Palmtag & @dschraff.bsky.social

submitted 36 days ago • 0 comments

🚨 New paper 🚨 with @pstanig.bsky.social forthcoming at @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 about the political consequences of climate-related disasters 🌲💦⚠️ Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os... Summary 🧵👇

submitted 90 days ago • 5 comments