tylermacro.bsky.social
PM at various macro hedge funds for 20yrs. Always learning, hopefully teaching a bit as well sometimes.
110 posts
261 followers
302 following
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& then compare it to 2016….
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That’s incredibly impressive per capita growth…
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How is it weird, look at these machines in our hands
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Strange…
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Affordability measured how
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How?
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With,
data.bls.gov/cew/apps/tab...
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The “Great Depression” in parts of Europe post GFC is the single most deceptive narrative I’ve come across (in reading or living) & yet it’s right there in the data
Strangely underexplored
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What other uses?
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Headline.
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Genuinely don’t know
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Sure, the nature of those problems is the issue
For Germany, you suffered a generational terms of trade shock, since reversed, that you tried to offset with some version of price caps
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I’d rather have rates at -1 than a generous policy response
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Thx
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What are the biggest ones (just beta, not asking for single name alpha)
Might start buying some
Thx in advance
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Yeah I don’t trust the accounting that shows a “crisis” v much
This is an actually well measured aggregate—nominal compensation of employees
What’s the crisis?
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Nominal gdp would have been lower, perhaps meaningfully
Split between output and prices? No strong opinion on
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So 23.1 needs to go to 21.0 in four years (as % of GDP)
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Yeah,
They should also immediately cancel the MSR
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They want to keep total government spending at its historical average over the forecast horizon—that’s a lot of discretionary tightening given trends in other categories…
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Don’t agree with your characterization of #2, people across the spectrum are worried about it
In fact I think one of the biggest risks for the admin is that they (maybe not Trump) have explicitly said they’re going to dramatically cut the deficit
Elon retweets right wing deficit porn all the time
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Someone should write,
“What the Germans don’t want to tell you—because of their previous complaints—is that what really happened to their economy was a rate shock. Get long term rates back to 0 and the cycle will turn up again”
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Great list
Is it possible to be better than mortadella?
Not imho