zenpundit.bsky.social
Discerning the connections
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I do not. I have a KGB watch somewhere though and like most old Soviet things it is a) broken and b) slightly radioactive
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A major difference between the WWII-Cold War “wise men” and later generations was contemplating grand strategy through the prism of political economy
Preventing a return of Depression #1 concern after defeating the Axis
That meant a new global economic architecture was needed
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Any actual cease fire or armistice won’t look drastically different from what Trump is proposing albeit it would be modestly more favorable to Ukraine but not much. Ground truth tends to be weighted heavily at the table
It will likely be a reprise of the end to the Korean War as both sides rearm
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A small number of activists would like to expose NATO troops to Russian attack and thereby draw Euro or the U.S. military into direct conflict with Russia
This is exceedingly bad advice and not in anyone’s interest, not even Ukraine, and very unlikely to ever happen even if Harris had won 2/
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Stoics not Broics
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In this instance, a problem for the Baltics, Finland and Scandinavia, not the US
Unless they have a naval fleet I don’t know about in their pocket, they really ought to not provide incentives for the US to move naval assets out of theater
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Not sure how making it harder for the US Navy to protect the northern NATO sea flank would help improve Norwegian security but sure, give it a go. See how that works out
Maybe consult the neighbors first though
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It can’t be helped and it doesn’t matter if the next US president is a Democrat or not
If NATO is to continue with US as a guarantor then Europe needs to move to create a viable and realistic conventional deterrence
Games like this are non-starters
Norway needs the US Navy we don’t need Norway
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We are requiring them to change a political economy model that is the power base for their established political parties since 1992. Butter not guns
Realistic defense means less welfare state or dystopian net zero fantasies of the green parties which disrupts their internal political arrangements
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Regardless of who the next POTUS is after Trump the geopolitical dilemma remains the same and Europe expecting America to neglect its biggest threats in order to let them spend 1% on defense won’t happen even if the next POTUS is blue
Why are Euros so stubborn ? Well…
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The easiest solution is that Europe provides more of the collective security than in the past which they can easily afford to do so the US. can shift some resources to the Pacific threat
Which Europe adamantly refuses to do
Obama/Biden knew we had to change but only tinkered at the margins here
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Hey Ronin! No. Just online somewhat less these days. Had a lot going on IRL lately so no time for Bluesky, threads or Insty
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Assad it seems unfortunately made it to Moscow, unlike Lin Biao
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I wondered where you had gone off to!