The other weird / self harming aspect of this is that if you believe the control vs numbers thesis (which I largely but not entirely do) by exercising already exister ‘control’ you don’t really get much ‘in control’ benefit.
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In short this it seems to me is an ‘easy’ but highly ineffective way of demonstrating control while the real (and much more difficult) problem of illegal immigration remains largely ‘out of control’.
The net effect of substantially lowering international student numbers is lower economic growth, less courses for domestic students and some universities going bust.
Plus of course, any look round a university town or city will show a wave of ancillary businesses (Chinese supermarkets, bubble tea shops, dessert parlours, bars, cafés) which would presumably be in serious trouble if this happens.
I shall make a little prediction. If there’s a wave of university bankruptcies (which would be treated as a national disaster) Labour will lose the next election.
They are going to lose it anyway, neo liberal economics will continue to make people poorer, simultaneously collapsing public services, leading to ever greater everyday anger which will spill over into Reform as a "protest" vote and ergo a UK Trump style govt. Disaster ahead indeed.
While the white paper intro sets the right course on immigration, I am intensely suspicious of the commitments on training. This govt has already closed nursing programs. They appear to have a peculiar 1950s Labour view of Unis as bastions of the enemy middle class, and that,....
While nursing did not require a degree in 1950s, it does today, and the same is true for others. I'm pretty sure there is a retrograde view within Labour to favour poly technics. Will the govt do training? Or do some finance tricks to encourage industry to do it? Latter a naive disaster.
The revealed preference for manufacturing (steel, cars etc) vs service exports is noteworthy and completely counter to the overall structure of the economy.
No that's just a sop to reform voters, as is the whole "Great British" patriotic schtick thing, you can`t reverse 45 years of deindustrialisation inside 5 years, and no amount of jingoism will hide that as it becomes seen to be the sham it is, especially as China`s new "dark" factories power ahead .
What's especially revolting is that the cheerleaders for getting rid of universities and promoting manufacturing have no intention of their kids missing out on university, the factory instead of uni path is for the little people.
Just like favouring a dilapidated and obsolete industry - fishing - over the considerably larger (in terms of both GDP and employment) business of Teaching English as a Foreign Language, as the Tories did with their doctrinaire approach to Brexit.
It's all about feeling tough and strong and [in the case of male members of the govt] masculine, right,?
Like, it's a fairly consistent thing now that this government takes the way that doesn't require thinking - that is often hostile to thought itself - but instead embraces that emotionality.
Genuinely think labour has a "union workers in heavy industry" problem. Emotionally they still think that's their base based on the mythology that's been built up around the miners strike (see Billy Elliot, Brassed Off and Pride)
Plausible, however the crisis is somewhat slow motion, and I wonder if there are Whitehall types who prefer to soothe, deflect blame, minimise concern, reframe causes. It's a well-worn approach to gov f-ups, and is also working well in the water industry.
My sense is that this will begin in the next few years. Quite a few are already in the "cut core functions to reduce costs" organizational death spiral.
The ridiculous thing is that (in horrid neoliberal terms) there is just about still a high quality product that can be sold internationally to keep the books balanced.
Labour "technocrats": what shall we do? Encourage international students and keep the unis running or listen to the Daily Mail?
I agreed with you up until there. I do think some who went to and value university overestimate the value to the electorate as a whole.
A few universities going bankrupt will not decide the next election IMHO. It would be v v bad but. But not as electorally decisive as the economy/NHS/etc
A few universities going bankrupt is a few hundred thousand unemployed per university. Not counting the industry collaborative efforts that will also immediately collapse.
How many of our regional economies can absorb that?
I think you're correct.
I am interested (my hometown) in opportunity & attitudes. It's the same divide as the brexit lines. The have's, the have nots, the shires vs the mill towns, aka the north south divide aka a class system. I was there last year, nothing had changed. https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/14831/
This strategy of targeting immigration is symptomatic of Labour's grasp of the majority of the country's *real* priorities. If it concentrated on what is important to that majority, it might just get better traction with the public's support. https://bsky.app/profile/squibbmeisteruk.bsky.social/post/3louv4kypck27
I suppose, unless you mean indirectly rather than directly. In that university bankruptcies will be linked to or a sign of wider economic woes and policy approaches and failures?
Is it orderly and can they merge with a neighbour to become a kind of satellite campus? Is it disorderly and do they leave creditors? What's the govt actively doing to shape this situation?
Fewer *and* more expensive courses for domestic students. Yesterday, I listened to Vivienne Stern, CEO of Universities UK speaking with Matt Frei on this & she indicated that since 2017, uni's have not received real terms funding increases to 30% or so, meaning that in reality UK fees shld be £13k…
This means that overseas students have been subsidising the costs for domestic students. If reductions in visas result in fewer o/seas students, costs shld rise for domestic students, or as you wrote, @columnist.bsky.social, uni's run risk of bankruptcy.
Well done Labour… you should be. 🙄
And they know it: the reason they know it is that successive governments have studied it repeatedly while praying for a different outcome, only to confirm that it is just a terrible idea on every level.
It doesn’t give the hardcore anti immigrant crowd what they want, doesn’t demonstrate control to others, isn’t what most voters want when polled and is damaging to the country in social and economic ways. Overall it seems to serve no discernible purpose other than making things worse
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A disaster for the country.
Like, it's a fairly consistent thing now that this government takes the way that doesn't require thinking - that is often hostile to thought itself - but instead embraces that emotionality.
Labour "technocrats": what shall we do? Encourage international students and keep the unis running or listen to the Daily Mail?
A few universities going bankrupt will not decide the next election IMHO. It would be v v bad but. But not as electorally decisive as the economy/NHS/etc
How many of our regional economies can absorb that?
I am interested (my hometown) in opportunity & attitudes. It's the same divide as the brexit lines. The have's, the have nots, the shires vs the mill towns, aka the north south divide aka a class system. I was there last year, nothing had changed.
https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/14831/
In which case I still agree with you
Is it orderly and can they merge with a neighbour to become a kind of satellite campus? Is it disorderly and do they leave creditors? What's the govt actively doing to shape this situation?
Well done Labour… you should be. 🙄
The emphasis on prioritising highly educated migrants also seems sensible.
Not sure why there is such an adverse reaction to the paper, but willing to be convinced otherwise.