1/🧵 Following up on our study featured in NYT today, this figure provides a macro-level view:
Dem vote shares rise with turnout parity (left) but fall with party-level ideological moderation (right). This suggests mobilizing base voters > persuading swing voters by moving to the center.
Dem vote shares rise with turnout parity (left) but fall with party-level ideological moderation (right). This suggests mobilizing base voters > persuading swing voters by moving to the center.
Comments
The two party system IS bonkers though. Gotta get more parties in there.
It’s BOGUS to paint Obama as some firebrand left-wing candidate.
He ran as a mild moderate centrist , especially in 2012.
He bailed out Wall Street & passed a healthcare reform package that was crafted by THE REPUBS.
No far left candidate has ever been elected POTUS.
Leftists spent years attacking Obama.
Progressives called him “Bush Lite” bc he bailed out Wall Street in 2009 and bc he chose Mitt Romney’s healthcare reform plan instead of “single payer”.
Leftists are just trying to rewrite history and adopt him as one of their own now.
He’s not.
Biden, AKA the guy who left office with a 40% approval rating.
Being very progressive does not = success in presidential politics.
The much more centrist Bill Clinton GOT RE-ELECTED and left office with a 65% approval rating.
He was a centrist politician.
Read a biography of his life and presidency.
Eleanor was far left and she frequently counseled him to take more left-wing positions, but FDR was very pragmatic and always focused on what the public reaction would be to his actions.
FDR was always very aware of the necessity of staying away from the far left in order to win.
He got fucked by the party in subsequent rounds of voting.
But thank you for providing further evidence to support my earlier statement.
The whole anti-communist line of attack from the Repubs throughout the late 40’s and 50’s was given legitimacy by Wallace’s far left policy agenda.
Or was it just more convenient to ignore that part because it hurt your argument?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAbab8aP4_A
Democrats need to quit worrying about what republicans might say and listen to what voters NEED
They are already right of center.
Party leadership has been radiating out of Washington for decades and it has an iron fist on the primary process.
At least let us have primaries Democrats
... And he is the biggest Democratic win since FDR"
Then we run a bunch of conservative Democrats and they all f****** lose.
Gore, kerry, clinton, harris
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAbab8aP4_A
Can I ask: Why did you put 2020 to the right of 2008? I saw this chart being challenged asking what methodology you used to determine party idological positioning for each election.
the post-ww2 vaguely-decorous media is the bizarre aberration; paying for the privilege of getting your party's version of events was how we did things for most of our history
The incumbent president’s party nearly always loses seats in midterms.
That’s the only trend you’ve identified.
Far more voters think the Dems are too far left than think they are too moderate.
You can say that strategy failed, but you can’t (credibly) say that it’s the reason they got creamed.
What was different about 2010 and 2022? (hint https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_redistricting_cycle)
Party A wins ← Electoral conditions favor party A → Party B chooses moderate candidate.
the way Trump pulled off 'perceived moderacy' was that he said one thing you agreed with in between a dozen insane things, leading to "I don't agree with him on everything, but he's got some good ideas"
The problem here is that they are lying about their reasons.
They aren't pursuing some electoral strategy: these are the policies they *want* and they are making up excuses to implement them.
I'm "enthusiastic" about voting the same way I'm enthusiastic about having to put gas in my car, or go buy groceries.
People need to start acting like actual citizens.
Voter enthusiasm matters. A lot.