2/🧵 Here is the breakdown by ideological groupings. While liberal judges heard more cases (due to geography and venue selection), the consistency of rulings across ideological lines demolishes the narrative that judicial decisions against Trump reflect political bias. - ThreadSky

adambonica.bsky.social • 6 hours ago

2/🧵 Here is the breakdown by ideological groupings. While liberal judges heard more cases (due to geography and venue selection), the consistency of rulings across ideological lines demolishes the narrative that judicial decisions against Trump reflect political bias.

Comments

darlingd53.bsky.social•6 hours ago

Trump is a Loser!!

hhanson.bsky.social•1 hour ago

📌

ablativmeatshld.bsky.social•5 hours ago

What happens to the rate when you control for the grounds for the ruling - procedural vs substantive?

patricklovell13.bsky.social•6 hours ago

How many of you understand we are now absolutely under the thumb of an authoritarian hybrid billionaire/fascist state? What are you going to do about it? How about hearing what I have to offer?
https://youtu.be/9Gr8BhQw6UE?si=MvhNiXC-sKW4PluM

jgschraiber.bsky.social•5 hours ago

I wonder if this is selection bias---plaintiffs are obviously venue shopping, and maybe only take the risk of getting a conservative judge if they know their case is ridiculously strong?

juliusmiami.bsky.social•6 hours ago

Print this!
@thehoustonwade.bsky.social

anil-blue.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Better here to use a 2x2 contingency table ("Liberal", combined non-"Liberal" in the rows, for and against in the columns) and apply either Fisher's exact test or chi-square. Both do support no significant influence. For example.

anil-blue.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Note the P value is rounded to the displayed decimals.

a-climate-refugee.bsky.social•5 hours ago

I feel a little better now.

kjsch.bsky.social•1 hour ago

📌

adambonica.bsky.social•6 hours ago

3/🧵 Modeling the outcomes with a logistic regression confirms that judicial ideology doesn't predict ruling outcomes. This isn't commonly the case—ideology is typically a moderate to strong predictor of case outcomes, making this ideological consensus particularly noteworthy.

elucidating.bsky.social•2 hours ago

Can I ask where you were sourcing the data? Is that a public data set or did you have to manually refine it?

I'd like to maintain this analysis over time and have a giant red alert siren go off in my house if that changes

jackeroni.bsky.social•6 hours ago

What is the slope of that function? Looks like you’d need a DIME score > 10 to swing the function in Trump’s direction. 🤪

thechemist.bsky.social•6 hours ago

Thread is okay, but slide on “logistic regression” is incredibly stupid.

adambonica.bsky.social•6 hours ago

4/🧵 The pattern diverges from what @mayasen.bsky.social and I found during Trump's first term, when judge ideology strongly predicted case outcomes. What changed? The nature of the challenges—today's cases pose more fundamental constitutional violations uniting judges across partisan divides.

tinkertailorreply.bsky.social•5 hours ago

They wanted it to be one way, but it was the other way.

trillymopena.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Do you know if there was any difference between the shape of the curve for TRO/PI/interloctory stages vs. final dispositions last time around?

rjripley.bsky.social•2 hours ago

In other words, Trump’s actions are beyond the pale.

patricklovell13.bsky.social•6 hours ago

noahdahl.bsky.social•40 minutes ago

I would caution somewhat. It is still early in the term. Trump was shot down early and often in his first term as well.

We should be glad to see these results, but we cannot count on them to sustain us alone.

adambonica.bsky.social•6 hours ago

5/🧵 Trump's attacks on judges—including Republican appointees—for unfavorable rulings reveals an authoritarian assault that should alarm us all. Demanding judicial loyalty over constitutional fidelity represents a dangerous erosion of separation of powers, the cornerstone of our Madisonian republic.

multredab.bsky.social•6 hours ago

OK. What are you actually doing about it? Try @indivisible.org

realpresleyrex.bsky.social•6 hours ago

Does it matter if SCOTUS overturns it all?

palecur.bsky.social•5 hours ago

there literally isn't enough SCOTUS docket for 'it all'. and Barrett, of all people, has been ruling against the admin quite a bit more than expected.

realpresleyrex.bsky.social•5 hours ago

Can they pick a case that makes the others moot and expedite that?
A unitary executive president?

rugnerd.bsky.social•6 hours ago

It is not a dangerous erosion. It is the shit-canning of constitutional law as part of the overall plan to make him emperor over a permanent single party MAGA banana republic.

adambonica.bsky.social•6 hours ago

6/🧵 When judges across the ideological spectrum reach similar legal conclusions about attacks on our Constitution, we should see it for what it is: a flashing warning sign that we are facing a clear and present danger to our democratic and constitutional order.

dondechert.bsky.social•5 hours ago

Do outcomes and level get different weights? Do individual stays, part of a case but separate decisions, get added to the data and in what matter?

jpharris2.bsky.social•6 hours ago

Thank you for the clear analysis. One more point: we are more than facing it, we are in the middle of an active coup d'etat (perhaps better described as an autogolpe) - we are not approaching the crisis; we are in it. And we have no choice but to act or be overwhelmed.

beverlymann19.bsky.social•5 hours ago

My near-pathological cynicism about the Supreme Ct notwithstanding, I've been posting here for a while that I think it'll end this nihilism stampede, if only by a one-vote margin. I took Roberts' statement today as verification. And right now I think it may be by a broader margin.

indeego.bsky.social•5 hours ago

Thanks, I just learned a new word.

dloprinzi.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Thanks for teaching me the word “autogolpe.” Just looked it up, you’re spot on. Here’s a full explanation for anyone interested. Describes what Trump is doing right now to a tee:

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-is-an-autogolpe-vOVbKFErR.2GlLqvth7POA

richlevine6.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Yes, an autogolpe. Had never heard that term until I read about it in a Paul Krugman post earlier this year, but what’s going on right now does fit it.

uchronik451.bsky.social•6 hours ago

On the case of Donald Trump it is called autogolf.

pegunnels.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Autogolpe! It makes me feel alive to learn a new word!

everydog.bsky.social•6 hours ago

this is why Roberts is now suggesting these courts do not have the authority to issue such orders and notes that the SCOTUS will have to "look at their legality soon"

davidlublin.bsky.social•5 hours ago

Until they start tossing DOJ attorneys in jail for contempt, things are still way off from working as expected.

nwayne66.bsky.social•6 hours ago

📌

dralant.bsky.social•19 minutes ago

patricklovell13.bsky.social•6 hours ago

griffsy.bsky.social•6 hours ago

Sounds more like passing judgement?

multredab.bsky.social•6 hours ago

Again, we know this so what actual actions are you taking? Writing a book?

masterjost.bsky.social•3 hours ago

I highly doubt that most people know this

colleenboles.bsky.social•6 hours ago

Yeah, that ship has sailed.

tomasmiko.bsky.social•6 hours ago

🚨🚨🚨 indeed!

crazy4sherman.bsky.social•6 hours ago

if only someone could have warned us this would happen... 🗑️🔥🎪🤡🙄🖕🏻

stevehuntsman.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Not the remedy I had in mind here:

https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/4tjz5_v1

richo98119.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Part of the authoritarian playbook is to go after a independent judiciary. This has worked for Orban, Erdogan, Maduro, and Putin. All are probably advising Trump - that's why he's got such good relations with them.

rkfatheree.bsky.social•2 hours ago

We need to make it clear to SCOTUS that we citizens are their army as long as they do their part.

angrymetalguy.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Excellent. Thanks for sharing this!

billyjackliberal.bsky.social•6 hours ago

I keep saying this but I'm gonna say it again The American judge will be the person of the year!

Our justice system Will Stop trump at doing his worst, Problem is trump will ignore Judges, then what?

realgirlvibes.bsky.social•5 hours ago

Yes and then SCOTUS is going to align with Trump who they appointed as King.
THEN. WHAT.

annej227.bsky.social•5 hours ago

Those who care see it. I can’t tell you how many times, people who share my values have no idea what’s going on. Then there’s the 45% who think it’s great. We have two choices wait until they fuck up so much that even MAGA recognizes the problem and therefore Congress impeaches to save their own

annej227.bsky.social•5 hours ago

Asses (which time it would probably too late) or we overthrow the government by force. Who wants to throw the first rock?

jenniferdiascro.bsky.social•5 hours ago

Is acclimation to the institution an independent factor as well, I wonder? It’s one thing to be new to the bench & perhaps feel grateful & obligated. But time, colleagues, reputation & more may matter later? And then there’s the nature of these cases … which suggests commitment to institution.

jameswoodfield.bsky.social•5 hours ago

It’s at least encouraging to think that, at what seems from here uncomfortably like the twilight's last gleaming, there may still be a viable democratic and constitutional order over there to be threatened.

dasquires1.bsky.social•5 hours ago

This is a stellar thread of concise, compellingly urgent analysis of what is happening and we are just EIGHT WEEKS in. But what if he continues to defy court orders. How will he be stopped. Or maybe nothing can. The devastation to our democracy and our government is already stunningly horrific.

tyedyedchaos.bsky.social•1 hour ago

First: Love the data model. Second: It’s nice to see more judges willing to up hold the rule of law and defend the Constitution against its most serious enemy in history. We have a sitting president who thinks of himself as king and above all law.

glsmd.bsky.social•6 hours ago

And.....??? We can talk about this all day but what the hell to do to stop it?

lancelauinger.bsky.social•6 hours ago

📌

crazycatlady54.bsky.social•3 hours ago

I'm betting the headlines will fade very quickly about the illegal deportations and they will be forgotten bc another weak judge caved to Trump

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