YES YES YES. And please recognize that what Jamelle is saying here is a more sophisticated and accurate model of public opinion than the vulgar, simple model used by virtually all of our politicians, political consultants, and media, in which the public simply has views that form from the ether. - ThreadSky

whstancil.bsky.social • 72 days ago

YES YES YES. And please recognize that what Jamelle is saying here is a more sophisticated and accurate model of public opinion than the vulgar, simple model used by virtually all of our politicians, political consultants, and media, in which the public simply has views that form from the ether.

Reposted from jamelle

the thing about “democrats should take popular cultural positions” is that what constitutes popular is a function of an interaction between the public and elites. if a faction of elites start screaming about a vulnerable minority and another faction says they have a point, this shapes the public.

Comments

blzerk.bsky.social•72 days ago

Mainstream Democrats say they have to follow public opinion.

Republicans (and their allies) doggedly shape public opinion through decades-long information warfare.

Which means that mainstream Dems follow Republicans.

moreacomment.bsky.social•72 days ago

That’s clearly true. I think the debate is on how you change public attitudes. Some people think that “the issue has nuance” helps change minds, others think “the issue has no nuance” helps change minds. I’m not sure it’s so clear who’s right!

vagrantjourno.bsky.social•72 days ago

You change public attitudes by saying the same thing loudly, for years and decades if necessary, and in public to anyone who will repeat your words. That's not a secret - we've known how to disseminate propaganda for decades. You just actually have to do it, and not act all squeamish.

moreacomment.bsky.social•72 days ago

When you talk to a person, face to face, it’s often effective to acknowledge their point of view and persuade them by seeking a middle ground. It’s a real question whether this works at all at the level of mass political persuasion. But I’m not sure it doesn’t!

vagrantjourno.bsky.social•72 days ago

It doesn't – we can see that, because the far right has effectively shifted the Overton window so much that fascism is acceptable political discourse once again. This is what Will is saying - if you are unwilling to play the game, then you have no hope of winning.

moreacomment.bsky.social•72 days ago

Maybe. But we’re talking about sexual identity, right? This is a space where we obviously did something right so far, probably not through politics but through popular culture. Also, another question is not where public opinion might be a decade from now, but how to win elections in 26 and 28.

rufusthedog.bsky.social•71 days ago

"Political parties shall participate in the formation of the political will of the people." (From the German Constitution.)

georgiabluedevil.bsky.social•72 days ago

Given the completely absurd f'ed up crap, MAGA believes and how they can change on a dime, it's VERY OBVIOUS that public opinion can be manufactured.

duendeonfuego.bsky.social•72 days ago

you're doing good work here Will

issacargopant.bsky.social•71 days ago

Ive long said that the presidents greatest power is their ability to influence public opinion. Folks ask me why I hate Trump, and this is why. He persistently abused that power for his own gain. No matter what, folks needed to take from watching him is that as a leader he failed everyday in office.

whstancil.bsky.social•72 days ago

“Public opinion” is a consensus opinion formed by communication and discourse, that exists separate from material conditions and is formed by people responding to EACH OTHER rather than independently responding to the conditions in their lives.

maybeitsonlyus.bsky.social•72 days ago

One might say reality is socially constructed

https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/12390/the-social-construction-of-reality-by-peter-l-berger/

flashgordon.bsky.social•72 days ago

a crude example of this: everybody at work thinks jeff is cool. but ted and beth tell their colleagues that when jeff met them at the bar the last night, he acted like a dick. later, everyone goes to a work party, and jeff starts acting like a dick, and people are like, "ted and beth were right."

kristamharper.bsky.social•72 days ago

Habermas for the win

chrislhayes.bsky.social•72 days ago

This is true but/and/also what happens in their lives is an actual input, part of the ingredients etc

stephenbaines.bsky.social•71 days ago

The fact is, democratic politicians have bought the argument that they are too disengaged from the public to shape opinion - a self deprecating opinion not shared by the GOP.

In part that’s because the dem coalition is more complex, but also Citizen’s United.

newcartographer.bsky.social•72 days ago

That has been the theory, but it's being tested pretty hard right now.

mmathog.bsky.social•72 days ago

Your 2004 essay as a Kerry canvasser was great!

dontinnovate.bsky.social•72 days ago

It’s ALL about their perception of causality which is why storytelling is the most important element of persuasion. Stories ARE explanations of causation.

whstancil.bsky.social•72 days ago

Very few of people’s direct experiences have an obvious political interpretation without narratives to link their experience to a political belief. But once you insert the narratives, ALL you need is the narratives. They become the causal driver, instead of the condition.

teeth077.bsky.social•71 days ago

There's a saying in the market: narrative follows price. Price goes where it goes, it's the narrative that tries to tell us why the price when where it went; the narrative's not necessarily the cause but it's always the justification.

mmathog.bsky.social•72 days ago

What's ironic about this is Chris Hayes' own *absolutely brilliant* 2004 essay on his experience as an '04 John Kerry canvasser for undecideds makes the very point about how these voters, and they are voters, don't directly connect what they experience to the "political".

whstancil.bsky.social•72 days ago

If “gas prices go up” can be perceived as a reason to support OR oppose Donald Trump, depending on the narrative people hear, it starts to become irrelevant what actually happens to Trump. Everything just rides on which narratives are being propagated and accepted

stomachtax.bsky.social•72 days ago

@chrislhayes.bsky.social he’s right, you know. Might be worth having him on your show?

asherdesai.bsky.social•72 days ago

Not sure it becomes irrelevant, just that those real-world Trump failures become beneficial for Dems if and only if they properly capitalize on it. If nothing happens to the economy, that’s less ammunition to convince people that Trump is bad (though definitely still possible!)

loreofships.bsky.social•72 days ago

EXACTLY which is why people that go to undergrad+ tend to be more "liberal" because they experience things outside their baseline experience - you meet and know and become friends with a much more diverse group it's hard to "hate" when you know people in the group being targeted.

acreed.bsky.social•72 days ago

Yes, but a key insight that Will has had (and which really flows from David Shor’s work) is that we are sufficiently post-materialist in our politics that the meta narrative and discourse can really shape individuals beliefs and especially voting patterns.

hirobottt.bsky.social•72 days ago

Yes, but we don’t want to over-subscribe to that as our main understanding of everything.

We should better understand of those dynamics, but ALSO understand the ways that other forces continue to shape public narratives.

thesarahrose.bsky.social•71 days ago

📌

whstancil.bsky.social•72 days ago

Public opinion exists as a complex consensus suspended over the measurable physical conditions of society, formed over time by many inputs. “Elite opinion” is likely the most powerful input into that consensus, almost inevitably: the voices that earn the most respect get the most pull.

blzerk.bsky.social•72 days ago

“We need to meet the voters where they are. Diners. Gun ranges. Book burnings. Lynchings. Get out of our DC bubble.”

fdrobovelt.bsky.social•72 days ago

Given how much you've been championing the "social media brain rot is real and moves voters...legacy media is dead" idea, it's surprising on this issue you assume "elites" have that old school "change heart and minds" power when why isn't social media more influential?

fdrobovelt.bsky.social•72 days ago

There are a ton of YouTube channels devoted to gender issues, all providing insight and context on all sides of the issue in a way most elites probably have no concept of.

Dipping your toes into gender media will influence you (and then your social network) way more than an elite.

crispychickn.bsky.social•72 days ago

For every 30 minute video essay about gender you could watch 180 10 second TikTok videos about how libs are cringe. Repetition matters more than content.

fdrobovelt.bsky.social•72 days ago

But that's my point.

The weight of "elites" vs "masses" isn't the same as it was 10 years ago.

The only elites I'll grant have more power are those who own the algorithms or those who are "social media elites".

But a Dem rep from VA isn't one.

robertoartellini.bsky.social•72 days ago

Who do you think is shaping discourse on social media?

fdrobovelt.bsky.social•72 days ago

The illuminati? 😉

azery.bsky.social•72 days ago

american, especially democratic elites, are very much so just old people who don't know how the social media game works.

azery.bsky.social•72 days ago

this is only part of what 'elite opinion' really means though, since it basically comes down to anyone seen as having prestige. policians, top academics, celebrities, influencer, youtubers, etc. all of them are part of this bracket.

dancaroselli.bsky.social•72 days ago

Strong agree with these points. There are only a small handful of leaders in the party left — that’s just not how the party sees the job/role of an elected representative, thanks to decades of policy wonk-ism. But obv people vote for leaders, not policies.

dancaroselli.bsky.social•72 days ago

I just had a little revelation related to this: the Democrats are organized around earning **endorsements** not votes.

piercesmith.bsky.social•72 days ago

And this is illustrated well in observing the logic by which this Republican admin is currently operating. Many seemingly unrelated elite factions “suddenly” in conversation with each other driving towards a consensus that serves elite interests explicitly, but the means is what’s sold to the pub.

cassius-clay.bsky.social•72 days ago

Republicans know that “the public’s views don’t form from the ether.” (Genius formulation!) Otherwise, how would we all have realized 23 months ago that our greatest threat was Drag Queen Story Hour? And then, exactly three months later, that it was instead West Coast trans women volleyball players?

azery.bsky.social•72 days ago

really just a big expansion of the 'manufacturing consent' theory of elite-public relations

crgenovese.bsky.social•72 days ago

And the prevalence of polls has further messed with peoples' models. Many implicitly view a poll as measuring some relatively static ground truth rather than being an uncertain, transient probe of a dynamic and shifting feedback system

mudbungie.bsky.social•71 days ago

it's a big tent, and there are a lot of issues, each of which is critical. You don't have to betray your values to choose to put popular ones to the fore. The savvy politician answers the question they wish they were asked, and I don't know why the party seems to have forgotten this.

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