Good post-thanks, the fact that we see the noose closing and politicians and business people slipping into the shadows doesn’t bode well..SCOTUS has left the way open to madness-and the corruption of what this nation has meant for so many. Our grandfathers fought and died to prevent this debasement.
Yet, polarized populace in ‘land of the free, Democratic US of A’ = crickets? Int’l rep >steep Decline
signed, former bestie, #1 trade partner, ally from north of 49th 😔
Yeah, it sucks, but we have to meet them where they are, stop them from dismantling government-then look at how to prosecute what will be a long battle to reset all they’ve already broken.
Good overall but I wish I shared the same level of optimism about elections. I don't see any reason to believe they wont purge election officials, make the certification process arbitrary, mess with voting machines, bolster voter suppression laws hamper dem fundraising, promote violence at polls etc
Exactly. He copies Viktor Orban. Orban called a Nat'l Emergency in 2015 due to unchecked immigration. Without lifting that, he called a 2nd one for Covid. That is still on. This is how he rules Hungary unchecked.
I suspect he will call a Nat'l Emergency before mid-terms.
The more that Trump+Musk break laws, the greater they risk future prosecution if Congress flips in 2026 and impeaches Trump for actual committed crimes.
If Trump ignores court orders now, the probability that he will try to stop elections in '26 & '28 increases significantly.
States control elections, and will hold them for themselves.
So unless all states agree, elections will happen in some form. The question is more what happens after the election. Will thr new members be allowed to be seated etc.
States administer elections, but if the Republican Congress+Trump declare a "national emergency" and cancel elections, and red-state governors and legislatures accede, that would effectively block our legal democratic framework and peaceful transfer of power.
Trumps coup is supported by the most powerful businesses on the planet. A regime based on fast pace intelligence and very swift economic retaliation on citizens and businesses not complying with its agenda. This is not possible in Hungary, Turkey, Venezuela etc. USA will potentially be much worse.
Imagine the worst thing you can imagine, then take a deep breath and realize that a second Trump term will be that bad, but weirder and even more random than you can imagine.
This is cultural revolution stuff, they are breaking things left and right with no plan or understanding about what they are doing. One day pretty soon they'll really break something essential.
The big worry is Vance. Trump could stroke out at any time and Vance steps in. Knowing what he could be like unrestrained from any further power advancement is worrying. Will he sideline Musk? Will he go crazy ordering the defenestration of critics and political enemies?
Vance has all the energy and willpower to pursue his wildest dreams and I just kinda imagine him as the Waingro bank heist temp hire who goes crazy killing easy victims because it fits his ideology
Predictions in this article are plausible but not reliable. What’s to stop Trump from reenacting Hitler’s “night of the long knives” and simply murdering his political rivals in a spate of violence?
The path to American authoritarianism was through the two-party system, which allows ONE tribe to control all powers and functions of a body and makes the OTHER tribe irrelevant.
THAT was not original intent of the founders. It was ATOMIZED power, individual reps representing THEIR CONSTITUENTS.
Very informative. Now I understand what will happen to the high visibility players in society. What about “the little people” like me ? How will our lives be altered ?
"Even in a worst-case scenario, Trump will not be able to rewrite the Constitution or overturn the constitutional order. He will be constrained by independent judges, federalism, the country’s professionalized military, and high barriers to constitutional reform."
Yeah I think the phrasing could have been redone there to perhaps suggest that it’s still there in the background but as we’ve seen with his 14thA executive order he can just get SCOTUS to reinterpret the Constitution and change precedent
It's not all kayfabe between the legacy media and Trump. They do prefer the dog whistle racist jingoistic est. GOP over Trump's more open and violent variety.
But when push comes to shove, anything is better than another FDR or Bill Clinton raising their taxes.
"Coach AP here. Listen up Dems. Vance is baaad. Hard to beat. Primaries are not a luxury you can afford in this moment of crisis. Better play it safe with our legacy media Democrat. Harris is the best you can do. Independent voters in swing states will swoon over Liz Cheney photo ops with Harris."
Comments
signed, former bestie, #1 trade partner, ally from north of 49th 😔
"There will be elections in 2028, and Republicans could lose them."
I don't think we should be so sure. Trump could
1) engineer a crisis: start a war or other provocation or a terrorist false flag
2) delay elections in '26 or '28
I suspect he will call a Nat'l Emergency before mid-terms.
The more that Trump+Musk break laws, the greater they risk future prosecution if Congress flips in 2026 and impeaches Trump for actual committed crimes.
If Trump ignores court orders now, the probability that he will try to stop elections in '26 & '28 increases significantly.
So unless all states agree, elections will happen in some form. The question is more what happens after the election. Will thr new members be allowed to be seated etc.
Don't discount the possibility.
But I expect actually rigged elections to be more likely than none at all. They, like all modern authoritarians, love claiming democratic legitimacy.
Meaningless elections.
Like in Russia today.
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@stevelevitsky.bsky.social
@lucanway.bsky.social
🧷
THAT was not original intent of the founders. It was ATOMIZED power, individual reps representing THEIR CONSTITUENTS.
http://www.realindependent.com
"Even in a worst-case scenario, Trump will not be able to rewrite the Constitution or overturn the constitutional order. He will be constrained by independent judges, federalism, the country’s professionalized military, and high barriers to constitutional reform."
Okay, it’s not that cheerful. But it’s a clear and sober assessment of where we are and where we’re headed.
Everyone suddenly simultaneously realizes n degrees of freedom does not exist.
All these institutions you took for granted are not going to be of any help in the future.
It's a challenging wave to surf.
But when push comes to shove, anything is better than another FDR or Bill Clinton raising their taxes.
So they'll "done deal" Harris ASAP.
Read the first 2 books of _Democracy In America_ if you want to know what's going on and any solutions or outcomes.